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Category: Ukraine

  • MIL-OSI Global: Iran-Israel ‘threshold war’ has rewritten nuclear escalation rules

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Farah N. Jan, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, University of Pennsylvania

    Smoke rises from locations targeted in Tehran amid the third day of Israel’s waves of strikes against Iran, on June 15, 2025. Photo by Khoshiran/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

    Israel’s conflict with Iran represents far more than another Middle Eastern crisis – it marks the emergence of a dangerous new chapter in nuclear rivalries that has the potential to reshape global proliferation risks for decades to come.

    What began with Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and other targets on June 13, 2025 has now spiraled into the world’s first full-scale example of what I as an expert in nuclear security call a “threshold war” – a new and terrifying form of conflict where a nuclear weapons power seeks to use force to prevent an enemy on the verge of nuclearization from making that jump. As missiles continue to rain down on both Tehran and Tel Aviv – with hundreds dead in Iran and at least 24 killed in Israel – the international community is witnessing the collapse of traditional deterrence frameworks in real time.

    Unlike traditional nuclear rivalries where both sides possess declared arsenals – like India and Pakistan, who despite their tensions operate under mutual deterrence – this new threshold dynamic creates an inherently unstable escalation spiral. Iran increasingly believes it cannot deter Israeli aggression without nuclear weapons, yet every step toward acquiring them invites more aggressive Israeli strikes. Israel, for its part, cannot permanently eliminate Iran’s nuclear knowledge through military means – it can only delay it through means that would seemingly guarantee future Iranian determination to acquire the ultimate deterrent.

    Under this dynamic, neither side can step back without accepting an intolerable outcome: for Israel, an Iran more determined than even in becoming a nuclear weapons nation capable of deterring Israeli action and ending its regional military dominance; for Iran, the risk of regime change through devastating Israeli strikes. The consequences of this deadly logic extend far beyond the Middle East.

    Flames rise from an oil storage facility after it appeared to have been hit by an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, on June 15, 2025.
    AP Photo/Vahid Salemi

    The preventive strike precedent

    The stakes could not be higher, as Iranian officials have called the attack “a declaration of war” and vowed that destroyed nuclear facilities “would be rebuilt.” Israel, meanwhile has warned its campaign will continue “for as many days as it takes.”

    Most ominously, the scheduled nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran were called off, with Tehran dismissing any such dialogue as “meaningless.” This may suggest diplomacy’s window – which opened for just a few months under Trump’s second administration, after being closed during his first – was deliberately slammed shut.

    More broadly, the Israeli strikes mark a dangerous evolution in international norms around preventive warfare. While Israeli officials called this a “preemptive strike,” the legal and strategic reality is different. Preemptive strikes respond to imminent threats – like Israel’s 1967 Six-Day War against Arab armies preparing to attack. Preventive strikes, by contrast, target distant future threats when conditions seem favorable – like Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941.

    Israel justified its action by claiming Iran could rapidly assemble up to 15 nuclear bombs. Yet, as the International Atomic Energy Agency director, Rafael Grossi, warned beforehand, an Israeli strike could solidify rather than deter Iran’s nuclear ambitions, potentially prompting withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. True to that warning, on June 16, Iran announced it was preparing a parliamentary bill that would see the country leave the 1968 treaty.

    Israel’s calculations in opting to strike build on the same erosion of international legal frameworks that has legitimized preemptive warfare since the United States’ military action in Afghanistan and Iraq after the Sept. 11, 2001 attack. America’s “war on terror” fundamentally challenged sovereignty norms through practices like drone strikes and preemptive attacks. More recently, operations in Gaza and elsewhere have demonstrated that violations of international humanitarian law carry limited consequences in practice. For Israel, this permissive environment has seemingly created both opportunity and justification regarding striking Iran – something that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pursuing for decades.

    Already, Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant demonstrated nuclear facilities’ vulnerability in modern warfare. I believe Israel’s actions further risk normalizing attacks on nuclear infrastructure, potentially legitimizing similar preventive actions by India, China or the U.S. against emerging nuclear programs elsewhere.

    From strikes to regional conflagration

    Israel’s initial strike quickly triggered inevitable escalation. Iran’s retaliation came in waves: first hundreds of drones and missiles on June 13, then sustained barrages throughout the following days. By the morning of June 15, both countries were trading strikes on energy infrastructure, military bases and civilian areas, with no immediate end in sight.

    The Houthis in Yemen have since joined the fight, by launching ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv. Notably absent are Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran’s Iraqi militias – all significantly damaged by recent action by Israel. This degradation of Iran’s “axis of resistance” – its traditional forward deterrent – fundamentally alters Tehran’s strategic calculations. Without strong proxies to threaten retaliation, Iran is more exposed to Israeli strikes, making nuclear weapons seem like the only reliable deterrent against future attacks.

    The escalation pattern illustrates what can happen when when a government casts aggression as prevention. Having initiated the recent escalation of hostilities, Israel now faces the consequences. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s vow that destroyed facilities “would be rebuilt” underscores that Israeli action designed to prevent nuclearization may instead result in Iran pursuing it with renewed determination.

    The commitment trap

    This creates what strategists call the “commitment trap” – a dynamic where both sides face escalating costs but cannot back down. Israel faces its own strategic dilemma. The strikes may ultimately accelerate rather than prevent Iranian nuclearization, yet backing down would mean accepting a nuclear Iran. Netanyahu’s promise that current strikes are “nothing compared to what they will feel in coming days” shows how quickly strikes sold as preventative escalate toward total war.

    Missiles fired from Iran are pictured in the night sky over Jerusalem on June 14, 2025.
    Photo by Menahem Kahana/AFP via Getty Images

    Unlike established nuclear powers that can negotiate from positions of strength, threshold states, such as Iran, face a stark choice: remain vulnerable to preventive strikes and regime change or race toward the protection that nuclear deterrence provides.

    North Korea offers the clearest example of this dynamic. Despite decades of sanctions and military threats, Pyongyang’s nuclear program has made it essentially immune to preventive strikes. Iranian leaders understand this lesson well – the question is whether they can reach the same protected status before suffering decisive preventive action.

    Traditional nuclear deterrence theory assumes rational actors operating under mutual vulnerability. But threshold wars break these assumptions in fundamental ways. Iran cannot fully deter Israeli action because it lacks confirmed weapons, while Israel cannot rely on deterrence to prevent Iranian weaponization because Iran’s nuclear program continues advancing.

    This creates “use it or lose it” dynamics: Israel faces shrinking windows to act preventively as Iran approaches weaponization; Iran faces incentives to accelerate its program before suffering additional strikes.

    The absence of effective external mediation compounds these risks. U.S. President Donald Trump’s response to the strikes reveals this dynamic starkly. Initially opposing military action and preferring diplomacy to “bombing the hell out of” Iran, Trump pivoted dramatically after the strikes began, and warned that “there’s more to come. A lot more.”

    His post on Truth Social – “Two months ago I gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to ‘make a deal.’ They should have done it!” – demonstrates how quickly diplomatic efforts can collapse once threshold wars begin.

    Global implication

    The international response reveals how thoroughly Israel’s Operation Rising Lion has normalized aggression against nuclear facilities. While European leaders called for “maximum restraint,” none condemned Israel’s initial attacks. Russia and China condemned the attacks but took no concrete action. The U.N. Security Council produced only statements of “concern” about “escalation.”

    This normalization sets what I believe to be a catastrophic precedent. The threshold war model threatens to unravel decades of nuclear governance based on deterrence rather than preemption.

    Indeed, the Iran-Israel threshold war sets dangerous precedents for other regional nuclear competitions. Successful preventive strikes could incentivize similar actions elsewhere, eroding diplomatic nonproliferation efforts. Conversely, rapid nuclearization by Iran could encourage other threshold states, like Saudi Arabia, to pursue nuclear capabilities swiftly and secretly.

    When preventive strikes become the enforcement mechanism for nonproliferation norms, the entire architecture of nuclear governance begins to crumble. Without these frameworks, the world faces an unstable future defined by cycles of preventive strikes and accelerated nuclear proliferation – far more dangerous than the Cold War-era standoffs that shaped nuclear governance.

    Farah N. Jan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Iran-Israel ‘threshold war’ has rewritten nuclear escalation rules – https://theconversation.com/iran-israel-threshold-war-has-rewritten-nuclear-escalation-rules-258965

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Iran-Israel ‘threshold war’ has rewritten nuclear escalation rules

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Farah N. Jan, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, University of Pennsylvania

    Smoke rises from locations targeted in Tehran amid the third day of Israel’s waves of strikes against Iran, on June 15, 2025. Photo by Khoshiran/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

    Israel’s conflict with Iran represents far more than another Middle Eastern crisis – it marks the emergence of a dangerous new chapter in nuclear rivalries that has the potential to reshape global proliferation risks for decades to come.

    What began with Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and other targets on June 13, 2025 has now spiraled into the world’s first full-scale example of what I as an expert in nuclear security call a “threshold war” – a new and terrifying form of conflict where a nuclear weapons power seeks to use force to prevent an enemy on the verge of nuclearization from making that jump. As missiles continue to rain down on both Tehran and Tel Aviv – with hundreds dead in Iran and at least 24 killed in Israel – the international community is witnessing the collapse of traditional deterrence frameworks in real time.

    Unlike traditional nuclear rivalries where both sides possess declared arsenals – like India and Pakistan, who despite their tensions operate under mutual deterrence – this new threshold dynamic creates an inherently unstable escalation spiral. Iran increasingly believes it cannot deter Israeli aggression without nuclear weapons, yet every step toward acquiring them invites more aggressive Israeli strikes. Israel, for its part, cannot permanently eliminate Iran’s nuclear knowledge through military means – it can only delay it through means that would seemingly guarantee future Iranian determination to acquire the ultimate deterrent.

    Under this dynamic, neither side can step back without accepting an intolerable outcome: for Israel, an Iran more determined than even in becoming a nuclear weapons nation capable of deterring Israeli action and ending its regional military dominance; for Iran, the risk of regime change through devastating Israeli strikes. The consequences of this deadly logic extend far beyond the Middle East.

    Flames rise from an oil storage facility after it appeared to have been hit by an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, on June 15, 2025.
    AP Photo/Vahid Salemi

    The preventive strike precedent

    The stakes could not be higher, as Iranian officials have called the attack “a declaration of war” and vowed that destroyed nuclear facilities “would be rebuilt.” Israel, meanwhile has warned its campaign will continue “for as many days as it takes.”

    Most ominously, the scheduled nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran were called off, with Tehran dismissing any such dialogue as “meaningless.” This may suggest diplomacy’s window – which opened for just a few months under Trump’s second administration, after being closed during his first – was deliberately slammed shut.

    More broadly, the Israeli strikes mark a dangerous evolution in international norms around preventive warfare. While Israeli officials called this a “preemptive strike,” the legal and strategic reality is different. Preemptive strikes respond to imminent threats – like Israel’s 1967 Six-Day War against Arab armies preparing to attack. Preventive strikes, by contrast, target distant future threats when conditions seem favorable – like Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941.

    Israel justified its action by claiming Iran could rapidly assemble up to 15 nuclear bombs. Yet, as the International Atomic Energy Agency director, Rafael Grossi, warned beforehand, an Israeli strike could solidify rather than deter Iran’s nuclear ambitions, potentially prompting withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. True to that warning, on June 16, Iran announced it was preparing a parliamentary bill that would see the country leave the 1968 treaty.

    Israel’s calculations in opting to strike build on the same erosion of international legal frameworks that has legitimized preemptive warfare since the United States’ military action in Afghanistan and Iraq after the Sept. 11, 2001 attack. America’s “war on terror” fundamentally challenged sovereignty norms through practices like drone strikes and preemptive attacks. More recently, operations in Gaza and elsewhere have demonstrated that violations of international humanitarian law carry limited consequences in practice. For Israel, this permissive environment has seemingly created both opportunity and justification regarding striking Iran – something that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pursuing for decades.

    Already, Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant demonstrated nuclear facilities’ vulnerability in modern warfare. I believe Israel’s actions further risk normalizing attacks on nuclear infrastructure, potentially legitimizing similar preventive actions by India, China or the U.S. against emerging nuclear programs elsewhere.

    From strikes to regional conflagration

    Israel’s initial strike quickly triggered inevitable escalation. Iran’s retaliation came in waves: first hundreds of drones and missiles on June 13, then sustained barrages throughout the following days. By the morning of June 15, both countries were trading strikes on energy infrastructure, military bases and civilian areas, with no immediate end in sight.

    The Houthis in Yemen have since joined the fight, by launching ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv. Notably absent are Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran’s Iraqi militias – all significantly damaged by recent action by Israel. This degradation of Iran’s “axis of resistance” – its traditional forward deterrent – fundamentally alters Tehran’s strategic calculations. Without strong proxies to threaten retaliation, Iran is more exposed to Israeli strikes, making nuclear weapons seem like the only reliable deterrent against future attacks.

    The escalation pattern illustrates what can happen when when a government casts aggression as prevention. Having initiated the recent escalation of hostilities, Israel now faces the consequences. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s vow that destroyed facilities “would be rebuilt” underscores that Israeli action designed to prevent nuclearization may instead result in Iran pursuing it with renewed determination.

    The commitment trap

    This creates what strategists call the “commitment trap” – a dynamic where both sides face escalating costs but cannot back down. Israel faces its own strategic dilemma. The strikes may ultimately accelerate rather than prevent Iranian nuclearization, yet backing down would mean accepting a nuclear Iran. Netanyahu’s promise that current strikes are “nothing compared to what they will feel in coming days” shows how quickly strikes sold as preventative escalate toward total war.

    Missiles fired from Iran are pictured in the night sky over Jerusalem on June 14, 2025.
    Photo by Menahem Kahana/AFP via Getty Images

    Unlike established nuclear powers that can negotiate from positions of strength, threshold states, such as Iran, face a stark choice: remain vulnerable to preventive strikes and regime change or race toward the protection that nuclear deterrence provides.

    North Korea offers the clearest example of this dynamic. Despite decades of sanctions and military threats, Pyongyang’s nuclear program has made it essentially immune to preventive strikes. Iranian leaders understand this lesson well – the question is whether they can reach the same protected status before suffering decisive preventive action.

    Traditional nuclear deterrence theory assumes rational actors operating under mutual vulnerability. But threshold wars break these assumptions in fundamental ways. Iran cannot fully deter Israeli action because it lacks confirmed weapons, while Israel cannot rely on deterrence to prevent Iranian weaponization because Iran’s nuclear program continues advancing.

    This creates “use it or lose it” dynamics: Israel faces shrinking windows to act preventively as Iran approaches weaponization; Iran faces incentives to accelerate its program before suffering additional strikes.

    The absence of effective external mediation compounds these risks. U.S. President Donald Trump’s response to the strikes reveals this dynamic starkly. Initially opposing military action and preferring diplomacy to “bombing the hell out of” Iran, Trump pivoted dramatically after the strikes began, and warned that “there’s more to come. A lot more.”

    His post on Truth Social – “Two months ago I gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to ‘make a deal.’ They should have done it!” – demonstrates how quickly diplomatic efforts can collapse once threshold wars begin.

    Global implication

    The international response reveals how thoroughly Israel’s Operation Rising Lion has normalized aggression against nuclear facilities. While European leaders called for “maximum restraint,” none condemned Israel’s initial attacks. Russia and China condemned the attacks but took no concrete action. The U.N. Security Council produced only statements of “concern” about “escalation.”

    This normalization sets what I believe to be a catastrophic precedent. The threshold war model threatens to unravel decades of nuclear governance based on deterrence rather than preemption.

    Indeed, the Iran-Israel threshold war sets dangerous precedents for other regional nuclear competitions. Successful preventive strikes could incentivize similar actions elsewhere, eroding diplomatic nonproliferation efforts. Conversely, rapid nuclearization by Iran could encourage other threshold states, like Saudi Arabia, to pursue nuclear capabilities swiftly and secretly.

    When preventive strikes become the enforcement mechanism for nonproliferation norms, the entire architecture of nuclear governance begins to crumble. Without these frameworks, the world faces an unstable future defined by cycles of preventive strikes and accelerated nuclear proliferation – far more dangerous than the Cold War-era standoffs that shaped nuclear governance.

    Farah N. Jan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Iran-Israel ‘threshold war’ has rewritten nuclear escalation rules – https://theconversation.com/iran-israel-threshold-war-has-rewritten-nuclear-escalation-rules-258965

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Soledad Núñez: Embracing the future on solid grounds – reinforcing financial stability

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    We are living in an age of profound uncertainty.

    In recent months, geopolitical actions have greatly affected the global economy. The United States imposed tariffs, leading to retaliatory measures from other countries, which disrupted global trade. In Europe, these issues are worsened by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has had severe human and economic impacts since it began in 2022.

    However, the challenges do not end there. Europe’s economic performance lags behind other regions, particularly the United States and China. The Letta and Draghi reports have made this clear: Europe must act with urgency, implementing policies that drive productivity and innovation.

    The gap is particularly wide in the field of technological innovation. The world’s largest tech companies by market capitalization are either American or Asian. Not a single European startup has reached a valuation of 100 billion USD in the past fifty years. Closing this gap will require significant public and private investment.

    Investment alone isn’t enough. As Mario Draghi recently said, “Integration is our last hope.” We need not just a single market for goods, but a unified financial system where European and national authorities work together for stability.

    This principle of unity applies equally to our financial safety net. Cooperation between central banks, supervisory authorities, resolution bodies, and deposit insurers is essential.

    It is in this context that this European Forum of Deposit Insurances (EFDI) International Conference provides a valuable platform to reflect on these challenges from the perspective of financial stability.

    I would like to thank the Spanish Directorate-General for Insurance and Pension Funds and EFDI for bringing together such a distinguished line-up of speakers.

    1 European Economic Situation

    Recent episodes of protectionism, including the generalised tariffs announced by the United States and the retaliation of China, require continued attention, as they continue to have an impact on capital flows and thus on the stability of financial markets. In Europe, this difficult situation is compounded by the tensions of other conflicts in Ukraine or in the Middle East, with an unbearable and unacceptable cost in human lives.

    Against this international background of unprecedented uncertainty, as Letta and Draghi’s past diagnostic reports have already pointed out, Europe faces a structural competitiveness gap compared to the United States and China. This gap is aggravated by differences in Research and Development investment, industrial scalability and access to venture capital.

    The current climate of uncertainty and such competitiveness gap mean that the only valid response at European level is unity and swift action.

    In response, the European Commission recently launched the Competitiveness Compass, a road map to revamp the EU’s economy. It transforms Draghi’s recommendations into a concrete roadmap – backed by the political support needed to act rapidly and in a coordinated way.

    The Compass aims to close the competitiveness gap while reducing strategic dependencies for the Union. The Compass proposes measures such as a call for deepening the single market, prioritising European Union policies, reducing bureaucracy and simplifying regulatory and fiscal frameworks.

    Europe needs to act together to boost its economy. To face challenges like climate change, technological changes, and geopolitical issues, Europe must invest significantly. The Draghi report suggests an additional €750-800 billion per year is needed by 2030, especially for small and medium-sized businesses and start-ups, which can’t rely just on bank financing.

    2 Savings and Investment Union and the Single Capital Market

    One initiative deserves particular attention – and I’m sure Commissioner Albuquerque will speak to it as well: the Savings and Investment Union.

    The EU is equipped with a talented workforce, innovative companies and a large pool of household savings of around €10 trillion in bank deposits. Bank deposits are safe and easy to access, but they usually earn less money than investments in capital markets. The Savings and Investment Union will make it easier for citizens’ savings to be mobilised for productive activities both through traditional bank financing and by putting their savings to work in capital markets. In this way companies – especially innovative start-ups and SMEs – will gain greater access to finance and venture capital.

    This initiative will also help us move towards the long-standing goal of a genuine capital single market.

    These changes will not, however, be immediate. European banks, including Spanish banks, must continue to play a key role in channelling savings into productive investments. Their better competitive position allowed them to cope with the turmoil that affected US regional banks a couple of years ago as well as more recent shocks.

    It should not be forgotten that a strong regulatory framework together with robust governance and effective supervision are essential elements to contribute to a sound banking system.

    The ECB has recently launched an initiative aimed at identifying redundancies and unnecessary complexities in regulation that affect the efficiency and competitiveness of European banks. The necessary reduction of the bureaucratic burden should not, however, affect the quality of compliance and reporting standards, which have made a decisive contribution, especially in the area of capital and solvency, to the solid position that European banks enjoy today.

    Current historical low NPL ratios, high profitability and strengthened solvency ratios will allow European banks to best meet the challenges associated with the environment I have mentioned. One of these will be related to digitalisation and the use of artificial intelligence. Banks can take advantage of their good momentum to boost digitalisation and prepare for competition from new competitors.

    3 Digitalization and Technological Innovation

    The digital transformation of the banking sector is irreversible. AI, asset tokenisation, and quantum computing are already reshaping finance, and their impact will only grow. But they also introduce new risks. These risks relate to the possibility of cyber-attacks but also to the dependence of financial institutions on technology providers. The DORA Regulation establishes mandatory standards for technological risk management, focusing on cybersecurity and testing but also on the management of technological suppliers, which recognises their critical role.

    I am sure that the panellists in the conference sessions will address the relevance of this new regulatory framework, the implementation of which will require strong support from institutions, providers and of course authorities. Lessons learned in the implementation of this new regulatory framework may be useful as a reference, with appropriate proportionality, for the management of technology risk by the deposit insurers sector, as their systems and processes are exposed to similar risks.

    The transformative potential of AI for the economy in general and the financial sector in particular is obvious. The use of AI will make it possible to automate repetitive tasks, free up human resources for higher value-added activities and improve decision-making through advanced data analytics. Banking should in turn support the use of AI in its relationship with customers, personalising and improving the customer experience. However, AI management entails relevant risks that must be monitored, from the misuse or bias of models, their lack of explainability or the increase in cyber-attacks.

    The European Union has taken a decisive step in regulating these risks. The new European AI Regulation grants specific competences to national authorities for the supervision of high-risk AI systems in the financial sector, which implies additional tasks for supervisors such as the Banco de España. Again, the successful implementation of this framework will be crucial for authorities, institutions and providers.

    Let me also make a brief reference to the importance of a digital euro in the area of payments. The digital euro won’t replace cash, but will reduce dependence on big tech and thereby boost competitiveness in the Union. Card payments in Europe are dependent on foreign networks, which is a strategic weakness for the continent.

    This dependence may become even greater with the emergence of foreign providers of digital mobile wallets or the expansion of dollar-denominated stable coins. There are still important elements to be defined in the design of the digital euro, in particular how it operates with private systems. Despite some concerns for the financial sector about the cost of adaptation and balance limits – which will need to be addressed in the ongoing design phase – the digital euro will bring strategic advantages for the future of the Union.

    Also in the area of payments, it is also likely that in 2025 the future PSD3 will see the light of day. The new Directive will replace the current PSD2. Its development responds to the need to adapt regulation to the growth of electronic payments, reinforcing consumer protection in accessing digital services and reducing payment fraud. PSD3 will also impose a single authorisation and operating regime for electronic money institutions and payment institutions, with a growing presence in the financial sector.

    The new regulation will remove barriers to the entry of these competitors into payment systems. As with any innovation, its development must be accompanied by an appropriate balance of responsibilities and rights of the parties involved.

    We have also seen the adoption of the immediate transfer regulation for the euro area from early 2025, which will be implemented gradually until 2027. Since the beginning of this year, payment operators in the euro area have already been offering their customers the same or better rates for immediate and ordinary bank transfers, with the addition of verification of the identity of the beneficiary.

    I am sure that the Conference will also address the challenges and implications for deposit insurers of these innovations in the scope of their functions, in particular in the reimbursement of guaranteed balances to depositors in case of a payout event.

    4 CMDI: The role of deposit insurers

    Equally important for guarantee funds will be the framework resulting from the negotiations between the European co-legislators on the ongoing revision of the Resolution Directives (BRRD) and its Regulation (SRMR) as well as the Guarantee Funds Directive (DGSD), the Crisis Management and Deposit Insurance (CMDI) legislative package. The reform of the CMDI represents an important step towards a more integrated, resilient and, above all, better prepared Banking Union to cope with future crises, and promises important benefits in terms of financial stability and depositor protection.

    The Commission’s original proposal of April 2023 was followed by two more alternative proposals from the Council and the Parliament, in its old composition. The different proposals share the need to strengthen crisis management to protect depositors’ access to their deposits by reinforcing the use of funding mechanisms such as the Resolution Fund, the SRF for the Eurozone, and national deposit guarantee funds. The reform seeks to expand the perimeter of resolution, applying the resolution mechanisms to a greater number of credit institutions, by enabling easier access to the resolution funds thanks to the contribution of deposit guarantee funds to resolution. The contribution from private sources such as the one from deposit insurers, will complement adequately the internal bail-inable resources of the bank, without resorting to public money.

    Equally important, the CDMI proposal will review the use of guarantee fund resources for other purposes than deposit payouts, as the measures to prevent the failure of a credit institution or the alternative measures to be used in insolvency proceedings, acknowledging the effectiveness and benefits of these tools for the management of banking crises. The wider the tool-kit, the better.

    The framework will also deepen the coordination between resolution authorities and deposit guarantee schemes. Robust communication protocols, joint crisis preparedness exercises and early access to information are essential elements to ensure an effective crisis management mechanism.

    In any case, the final text should provide a framework that facilitates its effective implementation, especially important when it comes to acting decisively in a short time frame, such as the “weekend” of resolution. It should also reinforce the role of guarantee funds in the management of banking crises.

    In this regard, let me point out the importance of the role that the Spanish DGS played in crisis management of the Global Financial Crisis, which severely affected the Spanish financial sector and particularly the savings banks. The contribution of the Spanish DGS, and thus of Spanish banks, was decisive in the management of the crisis that affected these institutions from 2010. The contribution of FGD’s resources for the absorption of losses and recapitalisation amounted to 23 billion euros, approximately a third of the total granted to the sector including public aid, and it served to reduce the cost to the taxpayer.

    Since then, the FGD has been improving its financial capabilities besides its systems and processes. On the financial side, it has already reached a capitalisation level exceeding the minimum regulatory target, well complemented by a private commercial line. In the operational area, the EBA, in charge of assessing the implementation of its standards on stress testing for guarantee funds, recently published a benchmark report among 7 EU deposit insurers, including the Spanish DGS. In the report the EBA acknowledges the FGD has in place adequate arrangements to test its capacities under stressed scenarios, and therefore in good position to be prepared to face an intervention.

    5 Conclusion

    Let me conclude.

    I believe a strong crisis management framework with a flexible toolkit is essential. Equally important is the coordination among authorities before, during, and after any disruption. This means authorities and deposit insurers must act quickly, decisively, and together.

    This unity is crucial now more than ever. In a time of increasing fragmentation, both globally and regionally, Europe must respond with a single purpose and strategy, especially in maintaining financial stability.

    Today, I’ve highlighted some of the missing pieces in Europe’s financial integration – and the need for national authorities to step up. The Spanish Deposit Guarantee Fund is committed to this goal. Through its active role in European forums, it will continue to contribute to the strengthening of our shared framework.

    As Mario Draghi recently reminded us in his report presentation: “In this world, it will be only through unity that we will be able to retain our strength and defend our values.”

    I am confident that the distinguished speakers we will hear today and tomorrow will help illuminate the path ahead.

    MIL OSI Global Banks –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: First Minister John Swinney’s speech on national renewal

    Source: Scottish National Party

    Thank you for joining me here this morning.

    This is a room full of leaders, of decision makers, of people with a critical contribution to make to the future of Scottish society.

    Your contribution, and your leadership are essential if the agenda I set out today is to become our nation’s reality.

    The world is changing around us, at a pace and with an unpredictability that can leave us feeling anxious and unanchored, overwhelmed by the scale and complexity of the multiple challenges we face.

    We all know from speaking to our friends and neighbours, our colleagues and families, that hope is a commodity in short supply.

    Dark clouds dominate. There are many uncertainties. Which is why there is now – more than ever before – a need to set out a clear path forward.

    Despite the anxieties, I remain convinced that we have in Scotland all that we need to successfully navigate this changing world.

    But have no doubt, this changing world requires also a fundamental change in how we operate. The status quo – across almost every field of endeavour – is no longer sufficient, it no longer serves us well enough.

    Public services first built in and for the 20th century must become rooted instead in the realities of the 21st. Our public realm reshaped; our nation renewed and reborn for this new age.

    The Scotland I seek is modern and dynamic; it is an enterprising, compassionate, forward-looking nation that is well-placed to ride the waves of change rather than being buffeted by them, rather than being overwhelmed by them. A Scotland where tomorrow is better than today because, together, we have made it so.

    It means public services too that are modern, accessible, flexible, responsive and seamless. Services capable of responding to life’s crises as well as to lives everyday. Services that are robust and creative in response to all the challenges – fiscal, climate, demographic – that are coming our way.

    Today, therefore, I wish to do three things.

    First, set out the central importance of technology as we renew Scotland’s public realm.

    Second, highlight the various necessary elements of the roadmap as we move from where we are to where we need to be.

    This is not about reinventing the wheel. We are not starting from a blank page. In the principles identified by the Christie Commission, and in our experience of this past decade and more – hard lessons learnt as a result of austerity, the Covid pandemic and its aftermath, inflation and energy shocks – we know what we need to do.

    And third, and because the time for a step change in our approach is now, I will seek to engage you as active partners in this process of national renewal and rebirth.

    Public sector, private sector, third sector. National, regional, local. The challenges are many, yes, but the opportunities are more. Working together, let’s be resolute in our belief that we’ve got the necessary knowledge and capacity to transform Scotland’s fortunes.

    The task before us is difficult, but entirely achievable.

    The challenges are complex, but the tools at our disposal are increasingly sophisticated.

    I see firsthand, from my visits to all parts of the country, shining examples of partnership, innovation and success and I know that the first steps on the journey to better have already been taken.

    Quite simply, I believe in Scotland and in our collective abilities.

    Like you, I care deeply about this nation of ours. I see clearly her potential – the potential to be more modern in our approach and outlook.

    But let me be clear, we are not going to be able to make the money we have available for public services match the demand for those services unless we ramp up our use of technology.

    That requires a near complete digital refit of our public realm.

    Above all, systems that are designed to serve the public first. In the NHS, making it easier to manage appointments, making it simpler to access test results, and providing new digital access points to tools designed to support us in healthier living.

    Progress has been made – for example, I think of efforts around digital dermatology – but it is not extensive enough or rapid enough and that must intensify.

    Scotland’s public sector should have a digital doorway that matches the very best in the commercial world.

    That ambition will drive our actions ahead.

    Also fundamental, are systems that make collaboration between public bodies easier. Systems that speak to each other instead of requiring clumsy work arounds. Systems that facilitate collaboration and joined up working rather than blocking them. We have been talking about this for too long, it is now time to make it happen.

    And, of ever-increasing importance, technologies that enable ever more personalised public services.

    I think of the work being done to deliver more targeted public health. That means linking technology, including AI, to local contexts, enabling more effective prediction of risk as well as earlier diagnosis. Technology, including cutting-edge use of genetics, to target interventions more effectively. It means ensuring we have targeted interventions too in communities that need extra support.

    Professor Anna Dominiczak, our Chief Scientist for health, tells me that we have a generational opportunity to put Scotland at the forefront of deployment of precision medicine – an approach to healthcare that tailor’s medical treatment to the individual characteristics of each patient. It means a move away from a one-size-fits-all model, helping us ensure the right treatment at the right time for each patient.

    Over this coming decade, taking a more precise and personalised approach to medicine can, and I believe will, revolutionise healthcare. It means bringing together AI, data analysis, genetics and wearable devices. It will be the cornerstone of a more personalised, efficient and cost-effective NHS moving forward. It is at the heart of my vision for more person-centred health services.

    The foundations for this new approach are already in place, but it is now time to up the pace.

    That is why I have asked my Ministers Richard Lochhead and Ivan McKee, to take the lead as we make this vision a reality, so that we can bring the transformational technologies of tomorrow, many of which are being developed right here in Scotland, into day-to-day use in Scotland’s NHS.

    Technology deployed in a way that empowers individuals and communities, that enables our public sector to integrate better, makes it more efficient, and most important of all, facilitates the essential shift to a front-foot focus on prevention as the best means of saving the public purse in the long term.

    Those of you with a keen ear and a long memory will recognise those four elements – empowerment, integration, efficiency and prevention – as the four principles of the Christie Commission.

    It was 15 years ago, when I was Cabinet Secretary for Finance in the first SNP administration, that I asked the late Dr Campbell Christie to lead a Commission on the Future Delivery of Public Services.

    We launched the commission because we could see even then, in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis and with the advent of austerity, and with climate and demographic challenges already to the fore, the necessity of moving to a more outcomes focused approach.

    The Christie approach has delivered key successes.

    The creation of a single Scottish Police service has led to over £200m in savings over legacy arrangements, while crime has continued to fall to near record low levels.

    Working at City Region level has enabled co-ordinated investment in economic development, transport and growth.

    And the partnership between local and central government that delivered the rapid expansion of early learning and childcare for all 3- and 4-year-olds and many 2-year-olds – a £1 billion a year investment in giving younger Scots the best possible start in life – offers an example of early intervention at its very best. We are already seeing the fruits of this choice, this investment, and will undoubtedly see more in the decades to come.

    However, the needs of this age mean we have to intensify our efforts to make the progress we require.

    That is because the headwinds have been strong. The global pandemic put unprecedented and prolonged strain on our public services. The challenges have become greater.

    Brexit and a shift in immigration policy has made it more difficult to recruit the public sector staff that we need.

    The post-Ukraine invasion inflation spike means that our money buys less than it used to.

    Our aging population is already resulting in greater demands on public services.

    The sum total of this is an environment in which, despite increased investment, and the valiant efforts of dedicated public sector staff, our public services strain at the seams.

    As austerity squeezed budgets and Covid increased demand, we – quite understandably – prioritised those most in need.

    This focus on the urgent consigned others to frustratingly long waits.

    Too often, it reinforced silos, as limited budgets were gripped ever more tightly.

    The result, a short-term win – it balances a budget – but it leaves long-term pressures to make services sustainable.

    Because those we do not support today are in greater need tomorrow.

    And when we address that greater need, we do so at the expense of the next person.  And when their need grows, we address it at the expense of the next person.  On and on.

    Across the public sector, we are effectively balancing this year’s budget just to chart a course to balance in next year’s.  And the same story the year after, and again, on and on.

    It is all a vicious cycle. It is unsustainable.  And I intend to sort it.

    That requires, right now, a clear, collective commitment to the paradigm shift in public service delivery that we started with Christie in 2011.

    I have given them in shorthand already, but here are the Christie principles in full:

    • Reform must aim to empower individuals and communities receiving public services by involving them in the design and delivery of the services they use.
    • Public service providers must be required to work much more closely in partnership, to integrate service provision and thus improve the outcomes they achieve.
    • We must prioritise expenditure on public services which prevent negative outcomes from arising.
    • And our whole system of public services – public, third and private sectors – must become more efficient by reducing duplication and sharing services wherever possible.

    Each of these principles is connected, each informs and shapes the other, each is essential if our project of renewal is to deliver the change that people quite rightly expect.

    A new way of working and thinking is demanded from my government.

    That shift is already underway with a sharpening of focus in the Programme for Government, with clear priorities then shaping also the decisions we make in the budget process.

    It is why we are reforming the National Performance Framework so that it enables the sort of cross-cutting, outcomes focused decisions that we need, while also reshaping the delivery structures within government.

    It requires a change also in the way we work with you and the way you work with each other.

    We must stop thinking only of our silos and the services we provide.  We must look at the whole person and the whole system.

    Fundamentally, we must shift our approach to one that focuses on value – the amount of impact we achieve for our investment.

    And that value must be the greatest overall value – not to an individual service.  It must be the greatest overall value to the person and to the wider system.

    Some of this can be done by making better use of the services we have.

    By better and earlier identification of who needs help.

    By making access easier and services more coordinated and seamless – tailored to people’s needs rather than to the system’s.

    And that is why I began today by focusing on the central role of technology in the delivery of our aims.

    But technology, while necessary, is on its own not enough.

    Equally, if we are to find value on the scale we need, marginal improvements in efficiency or effectiveness will not be sufficient.

    Quite simply, we cannot continue waiting until people have suffered, until the damage is done, and the problem has already cost us much to remedy, to at last do something about it.

    We must treat prevention and early intervention, not as luxuries we cannot afford, but as essentials our services can’t do without.

    Of course, when it comes to prevention and early intervention, most people think of health.  And for good reason; health, given its scope and scale, and its budget dominance, is a key arena for this.

    Eighty percent of what affects our health happens outside a health and care setting.  It happens in homes and schools, in workplaces and green spaces.  It happens in communities.

    So when we think of our health, we can’t think only of treatment and services.  We will never be successful only thinking of 20% of the things that make a difference.

    That is why, tomorrow, in partnership with COSLA, we take an important step towards supporting the other 80%: We publish Scotland’s 10-year Population Health Framework.

    This Framework will set into motion system-wide action designed to increase life expectancy and reduce health inequalities across the Scottish population.

    Just as much, it seeks to set into motion a cultural shift moving beyond the medical model of treatment in favour of a community-wide approach to improving and sustaining the population’s health and wellbeing.

    But this move to prevention and maximising value is not only about our approach to health.  We must radically rethink how we design, develop and deliver all our public services.

    Fundamentally, we must stop thinking in terms of expenditure and start thinking in terms of investment.

    We invest in preventative services today because we know we will benefit from them tomorrow.  And so will the people we are investing in.

    They will benefit when they stay out of poverty.

    When they stay out of the criminal justice system.

    When they go further in school.

    When their air is cleaner, and their spaces are greener.

    And when they live longer, healthier, wealthier and happier lives.

    Scotland has form with this kind of investment in prevention.  We have been doing it for many years from high profile initiatives like the smoking ban or minimum unit pricing to the significant anti-poverty interventions like the Scottish Child Payment.

    And, let’s be very clear about this: prevention is not some vague policy speak only relevant to rooms full of professionals such as this.

    Prevention is the hard-nosed financial principle behind the decisions we have taken on the Winter Fuel Payment.

    When the UK Labour Government decided to take the payment off millions of pensioners, I was appalled. Most people were.

    I was appalled at the immorality.

    But I was also appalled at the financial shortsightedness it represented.

    The Winter Fuel Payment kept some of the most vulnerable in society warm in winter.

    It was always the right thing to do but it was also the smart thing to do.

    Smart because it kept people out of hospital, in their own home. It kept them warm and well.

    And then it was gone. To be quite blunt about it, I don’t believe cutting this winter lifeline was ever going to save a penny.

    Because making millions of pensioners poorer makes them also colder and makes them also sicker.

    And that in turn puts up the bill for our social services and our NHS.

    It is an almost textbook definition of a false economy.

    Keeping the Winter Fuel Payment looks after our pensioners, but it also looks after our NHS.

    That is the sharp financial reality of the prevention principle in action. It is one of the reasons we were so quick to step in to protect pensioners in Scotland as best we could from Labour’s wrong decision.

    And now they have seen the error of their ways, my government will once again do right by Scotland’s pensioners.

    I am very happy to confirm that no pensioner in Scotland will receive less than they would under the new UK scheme.

    Details will be set out in due course but my Government, the Scottish Government, will always seek what is best for Scotland’s pensioners.

    That is one particularly prominent example of the prevention principle in action, but it happens also in ways big and small across Scotland today.

    To take one example, Glasgow Health and Social Care Partnership decided to invest in holistic, intensive family support for looked after and accommodated children in the care system.

    It meant early crisis intervention when needed, but also a more compassionate and child-centred approach – the result, the number of children in formal care has more than halved between 2016 and today.

    At the same time, savings of nearly £30 million have been achieved, as well as £70 million in cost avoidance.

    Imagine the possibilities if we make gains like these across the public sector: significantly improved outcomes delivering also significantly reduced costs.

    I am aware of the challenges. People have developed specialisms. There is attachment to ways of doing things developed through years of training, dedication and hard work.

    Sacrifice is often required and that is asking a lot of people, especially if there is no clear vision of what better means.

    Structures designed for the world we have known make it almost impossible to bring together data or budgets for the new world that is emerging. Our ways of understanding need don’t match with what we measure or how we fund.

    Existing systems of accountability and governance are no longer fit for purpose.

    These are real problems, absolutely, and up to now they have hamstrung change. But no more. These barriers must be navigated, and any blockages removed.

    Once again, I include national government in this.  I am talking as much to my Ministers and officials as I am to you.

    I offer you this guarantee. I have made it clear within government that we must be enablers of change.

    That includes a willingness to change the way we manage budgets and move money around the system.

    To change how and where we make decisions, how we empower and hold our leaders and staff accountable.

    As First Minister, have no doubt, I will provide leadership to drive this forward. And my government will provide coordination, share learning so that change can happen at pace. And if you see a blockage that we are creating, a barrier that we are building. If our actions don’t match our words, you must let me know.

    On Thursday, and as an important next step in this work, we will publish Scotland’s Public Service Reform strategy – a new approach developed with the input of the councils, public bodies, third sector organisations and business who attended our Public Service Reform Summit earlier this year.

    It will update Christie for this new decade and set out a vision and a plan to renew Scotland’s public services sector – a path towards greater focus on value and sustainability, on shifting care away from acute crisis response towards seamless community support, prevention and early intervention.

    Our Medium Term Financial Strategy, which we will publish next week, will define an approach to managing the public finances that will align with and enable this work.

    Strategies are necessary but never on their own enough. Getting delivery right on the ground is way more important than getting the words right on a page.

    That is why next week I will also bring together a delivery-focused group of senior leaders across local government, the health service, the third sector and the wider public sector, to drive forward our approach to Whole Family Support.

    As the name implies, Whole Family Support looks at the whole person and the whole family.  It proactively offers tailored support where they need it, regardless of what that support might look like.

    No one is pushed from pillar to post.  It does not require numerous referrals, repeated forms or questions.  Support and care reach the family as one, big public service.

    No one – and no need – falls through the cracks because there aren’t any. Instead, families work with someone who knows their names, their children’s names, their struggles and their strengths.

    This means issues are addressed as quickly and effectively as possible, in the way that is just right for that particular family.

    And that quick, effective care reduces the need for more costly interventions down the line.

    In this way, Whole Family Support makes the most of our collective assets and expertise.

    It trusts people, communities and frontline workers to know what is needed, and it aligns our shared resources and processes behind that.

    It is Christie put into practice as we commit ourselves on this path of renewal.

    I want you to leave today with a clear sense of my ambition and my commitment to this national project of renewal.

    I want you to feel enthused, but more importantly empowered. This will only happen if we, if you, make it happen.

    People often tell me that they feel as though they do not have permission to deliver the change in their organisation that they know is needed. Well today, let’s give each other that permission.

    This is a moment for change. All around us we hear the demand for better. But the solution is not to rip things up or pull things down, but to build on the strong foundations that we are blessed with.

    It is a time when we can come together and choose to renew our nation.

    It is a time when we can make Scotland the modern, dynamic, forward-looking nation we know it can be.

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI NGOs: Global: Urgent action needed as climate crisis leads to devastating new harms to human rights

    Source: Amnesty International –

    States must urgently deliver ambitious climate action by mapping out a just transition away from fossil fuels in all sectors to prevent even worse human rights harms around the world, Amnesty International said in a new briefing to mark the start of the Bonn Climate Conference which takes place between 16-26 June.

    Despite the challenges posed by the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, increases in authoritarian practices globally and the growing environmental devastation of the escalating armed conflicts in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Sudan and Ukraine, among others, it is not too late for states to find common ground and ramp up climate ambition for the planet and the rights of current and future generations.

    In 2024, for the first time, the world breached the threshold of 1.5°C of global heating above pre-industrial levels. During the hottest year on record, wildfires ripped through Latin America, the Caribbean was hit by the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record, and parts of Central Europe were deluged with three months’ worth of rain in five days as the climate emergency worsened, driven by human activity and the continued burning of fossil fuels.

    “The devastating new human rights harms resulting from climate change will escalate dramatically unless global heating is kept in check. More people will be driven deeper into poverty, lose their homes or suffer the effects of drought and food insecurity. Despite the deepening climate crisis, governments’ action to limit fossil fuel production and use has been wholly inadequate,” said Ann Harrison, Amnesty International’s Climate Justice Advisor.  

    “Governments are in thrall to fossil fuel companies which have sought to downplay climate harms and discredit climate science. States continue to provide subsidies to these companies, effectively incentivizing the continuation of the fossil fuel industry. Everyone has the right to live in a clean, healthy and sustainable environment – but as the climate crisis intensifies, this right, and others, are under growing threat.”

    Across the globe, unnatural disasters exacerbated by climate change, such as worsening droughts and severe floods, are damaging harvests and leading to food scarcity and water shortages, contributing to displacement, migration and conflict.

    Protecting and listening to grassroots voices

    Marginalized frontline and fence line communities that use fossil fuels the least continue to suffer some of the worst impacts of climate change. They include subsistence farmers, Indigenous Peoples and those living in low lying island states, threatened by rising sea levels and more powerful storms, or those living beside fossil fuel production and transport facilities.

    For example, Pakistan contributes less than 1% of greenhouse gas emissions annually but is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate disasters. In a report published last month, Amnesty International documented how increasingly frequent floods and heatwaves are leading to preventable deaths, particularly among young children and older adults.

    Despite the urgency of the climate crisis, those demanding action from the authorities are being harassed, stigmatized, attacked and criminalized. Around the world, environmental human rights defenders (EHRDs) are risking their lives and liberty for defending their lands and communities’ right to a healthy environment, such as the Warriors for the Amazon in Ecuador.

    “The voices, views, knowledge and wisdom of Indigenous Peoples, frontline and fence line communities and human rights defenders must be incorporated into climate policies, plans and action.

    Ann Harrison, Amnesty International’s Climate Justice Advisor

    The conference is an opportunity to spotlight the situation in COP29 host Azerbaijan, where environmental human rights defender Anar Mammadli and journalist Nargiz Absalamova who reported on environmental issues remain behind bars. Other journalists who reported on the human rights situation including during COP29 were arrested afterwards in apparent reprisals. Brazil, the host of COP30, is one of the most dangerous countries for EHRDs, who face killings, violence, threats and stigmatization for their work.

    “The voices, views, knowledge and wisdom of Indigenous Peoples, frontline and fence line communities and human rights defenders must be incorporated into climate policies, plans and action,” said Ann Harrison.

    “Once again, we have heard reports of limited badges and visa problems for those from the majority world wishing to attend the conference in Bonn. Nor are the COP Host Country Agreements – a key tool that must be strengthened to ensure freedom of expression and peaceful assembly for participants – available publicly as a matter of routine.”

    Climate finance must be addressed

    Amnesty International is also calling for states to tackle climate finance. Currently, lower-income countries are paying more in debt repayments than they are receiving as climate finance from high-income countries.

    High income historically high emitting countries are most responsible for climate change, yet continue to shirk their obligations to provide climate finance to lower income countries to cut emissions and to help communities to adapt to climate change, as well as providing reparations for loss and damage, which could ease the burden in countries suffering climate harms.

    “Taxing fossil fuel companies, corporate windfall profits and high net worth individuals, as well as ending subsidies and investments in fossil fuels and ending global tax abuses, could raise over USD 3 trillion per year which could go a huge way towards the cost of tackling climate change,” said Ann Harrison.

    Huge changes need to be made

    The Bonn Climate Conference is a key preparatory moment for the annual UN Climate Conference, which takes place as COP30 later this year in Brazil – a country that wants to publicly lead a message of global environmental protection. Yet, internally some of its institutions are taking actions contrary to this agenda, including requiring less stringent licensing for environmentally destructive projects and expanding fossil fuel production.

    “If climate change is to be taken seriously and to keep global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, we need to see concrete progress with clear timelines towards massively scaled-up needs-based climate finance, particularly for adaptation and loss and damage, in the form of grants, not loans, with those most responsible for emissions contributing the most,” said Ann Harrison.

    Amnesty International is calling for states commit to a full, fast, fair and funded fossil fuel phase out through just transitions across all sectors, without relying on risky and unproven technologies or offsets that do not lead to genuine emissions reductions. It is also calling for inclusive discussions around climate change, involving the people most affected by it, and ensuring they can meaningfully access these high-level negotiations without discrimination.

    MIL OSI NGO –

  • Seeking unity, G7 meets amid escalating Ukraine, Middle East conflicts

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    Leaders from the Group of Seven nations begin annual talks on Monday amid wars in Ukraine and the Middle East that add to global economic uncertainty, as host Canada tries to avoid a clash with U.S. President Donald Trump.

    The G7 leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.S., along with the European Union, are convening in the resort of Kananaskis in the Canadian Rockies until Tuesday.

    But beyond the serene and picturesque mountain setting, they confront challenges. The first five months of Trump’s second term upended foreign policy on Ukraine, raised anxiety over his closer ties to Russia and resulted in tariffs on U.S. allies.

    With an escalating Israel-Iran conflict, which is spiking global oil prices, the summit in Canada is seen as a vital moment to try and restore a semblance of unity between democratic powerhouses.

    “The most important goal will be for the world’s seven largest industrial nations to reach agreement and take action,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said before attending his first G7.

    That will not be easy. After years of consensus, the traditional allies have scrambled to keep Trump engaged and maintain unity.

    Canada has abandoned any effort to adopt an all-encompassing comprehensive communique to avert a repeat of a 2018 summit in Quebec, when Trump instructed the U.S. delegation to withdraw its approval of the final communique after leaving.

    Instead, Ottawa has sought to get consensus for a chair’s statement that summarizes the key discussions and six other pre-negotiated declarations on issues such as migration, artificial intelligence and forest fires.

    Talks on Monday will centre around the economy, advancing trade deals, and China.

    Efforts to reach an agreement to lower the G7 price cap on Russian oil even if Trump decided to opt out have been complicated by the surge in oil prices since Israel launched strikes on Iran on June 12, two diplomatic sources said.

    The escalation between the two regional foes is on the agenda, with diplomatic sources saying they hope to achieve at least a joint statement to urge restraint and a return to diplomacy.

    “We are united. Nobody wants to see Iran get a nuclear weapon and everyone wants discussions and negotiations to restart,” France’s President Emmanuel Macron told reporters in Greenland on Sunday before travelling to Canada.

    He added that given Israel’s dependence on U.S. weapons and munitions, Washington had the capacity to restart negotiations.

    Trump said on Sunday many calls and meetings were taking place to broker peace.

    RUSSIAN ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

    Highlighting the unease among some of Washington’s allies, Trump spoke on Saturday with Russian President Vladimir Putin and suggested the Russian leader could play a mediation role.

    Macron dismissed the idea, arguing that Moscow could not be a negotiator because it had started an illegal war against Ukraine.

    A European diplomat said Trump’s suggestion showed that Russia, despite being kicked out of the group in 2014 after annexing Crimea, was very much on U.S. minds.

    “In the eyes of the U.S., there’s no condemnation for Ukraine; no peace without Russia; and now even credit for its mediation role with Iran. For Europeans, this will be a really tough G7,” the diplomat said.

    Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will attend the summit on Tuesday. European officials said they hoped to use the meeting, and next week’s NATO summit, to convince Trump to toughen his stance on Putin.

    “The G7 should have the objective for us to converge again, for Ukraine to get a ceasefire to lead to a robust and lasting peace, and in my view it’s a question of seeing whether President Trump is ready to put forward much tougher sanctions on Russia,” Macron said.

    (Reuters)

  • Seeking unity, G7 meets amid escalating Ukraine, Middle East conflicts

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    Leaders from the Group of Seven nations begin annual talks on Monday amid wars in Ukraine and the Middle East that add to global economic uncertainty, as host Canada tries to avoid a clash with U.S. President Donald Trump.

    The G7 leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.S., along with the European Union, are convening in the resort of Kananaskis in the Canadian Rockies until Tuesday.

    But beyond the serene and picturesque mountain setting, they confront challenges. The first five months of Trump’s second term upended foreign policy on Ukraine, raised anxiety over his closer ties to Russia and resulted in tariffs on U.S. allies.

    With an escalating Israel-Iran conflict, which is spiking global oil prices, the summit in Canada is seen as a vital moment to try and restore a semblance of unity between democratic powerhouses.

    “The most important goal will be for the world’s seven largest industrial nations to reach agreement and take action,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said before attending his first G7.

    That will not be easy. After years of consensus, the traditional allies have scrambled to keep Trump engaged and maintain unity.

    Canada has abandoned any effort to adopt an all-encompassing comprehensive communique to avert a repeat of a 2018 summit in Quebec, when Trump instructed the U.S. delegation to withdraw its approval of the final communique after leaving.

    Instead, Ottawa has sought to get consensus for a chair’s statement that summarizes the key discussions and six other pre-negotiated declarations on issues such as migration, artificial intelligence and forest fires.

    Talks on Monday will centre around the economy, advancing trade deals, and China.

    Efforts to reach an agreement to lower the G7 price cap on Russian oil even if Trump decided to opt out have been complicated by the surge in oil prices since Israel launched strikes on Iran on June 12, two diplomatic sources said.

    The escalation between the two regional foes is on the agenda, with diplomatic sources saying they hope to achieve at least a joint statement to urge restraint and a return to diplomacy.

    “We are united. Nobody wants to see Iran get a nuclear weapon and everyone wants discussions and negotiations to restart,” France’s President Emmanuel Macron told reporters in Greenland on Sunday before travelling to Canada.

    He added that given Israel’s dependence on U.S. weapons and munitions, Washington had the capacity to restart negotiations.

    Trump said on Sunday many calls and meetings were taking place to broker peace.

    RUSSIAN ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

    Highlighting the unease among some of Washington’s allies, Trump spoke on Saturday with Russian President Vladimir Putin and suggested the Russian leader could play a mediation role.

    Macron dismissed the idea, arguing that Moscow could not be a negotiator because it had started an illegal war against Ukraine.

    A European diplomat said Trump’s suggestion showed that Russia, despite being kicked out of the group in 2014 after annexing Crimea, was very much on U.S. minds.

    “In the eyes of the U.S., there’s no condemnation for Ukraine; no peace without Russia; and now even credit for its mediation role with Iran. For Europeans, this will be a really tough G7,” the diplomat said.

    Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will attend the summit on Tuesday. European officials said they hoped to use the meeting, and next week’s NATO summit, to convince Trump to toughen his stance on Putin.

    “The G7 should have the objective for us to converge again, for Ukraine to get a ceasefire to lead to a robust and lasting peace, and in my view it’s a question of seeing whether President Trump is ready to put forward much tougher sanctions on Russia,” Macron said.

    (Reuters)

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women Opens Ninety-First Session in Geneva

    Source: United Nations – Geneva

    The Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women this morning opened its ninety-first session, hearing a statement from a representative of the Secretary-General and adopting its agenda and programme of work for the session.  During the session, the Committee will review the reports of Afghanistan, Botswana, Chad, Ireland, Mexico, San Marino and Thailand, and adopt concluding observations on the reports of Fiji, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu, which it reviewed during a technical cooperation session held in Fiji in April.

    Andrea Ori, Chief of the Groups in Focus Section, Human Rights Council and Treaty Mechanisms Division, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, and Representative of the Secretary-General, said he was pleased to announce the opening of the session, after the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights was able to confirm it only last month due to the ongoing liquidity crisis affecting the United Nations.

    Mr. Ori said this year marked the twenty-fifth anniversary of Security Council resolution 1325 of 31 October 2000, a landmark document that recognised the disproportionate impact of conflicts on women and girls and the crucial role of women in conflict prevention, conflict management and sustainable peace efforts.

    Noting with concern that some 120 conflicts were currently affecting civilians and communities worldwide, and that women and girls were primarily targeted by gender-based violence as a tactic of war, Mr. Ori commended the Committee on its work to update general recommendation 30, which provided authoritative guidance to States parties on concrete measures to ensure that women’s rights were protected before, during and after conflict.

    Mr. Ori also announced with regret that the global funding crisis was affecting the Committee’s work directly. Due to the lack of funding, the Office of the High Commissioner was planning and operating under the assumption that no Committee would have a third session.

    He concluded by thanking the Committee for its unwavering commitment and dedication to advancing women’s rights and wished it a successful and productive session.

    Nahla Haidar, Committee Chairperson, said that the Committee was meeting in one of the most challenging times for the multilateral system, amidst devastating conflicts, a weakening of the rule of law, and scarce resources.  Human rights mechanisms needed to be protected more than ever for the benefit of all stakeholders.

    During the meeting, the Chair and Committee Experts discussed the activities they had undertaken since the last session.  Bandana Rana, on behalf of Brenda Akia, Committee Rapporteur and Chairperson of the Pre-Sessional Working Group, and Jelena Pia-Comella, Committee Rapporteur on follow-up to concluding observations, also briefed the Committee on their work.

    The Committee’s ninety-first session is being held from 16 June to 4 July.  All documents relating to the Committee’s work, including reports submitted by States parties, can be found on the session’s webpage.  Meeting summary releases can be found here.  The webcast of the Committee’s public meetings can be accessed via the UN Web TV webpage. 

    The Committee will next meet at 3 p.m. this today, Monday, 16 June, with the representatives of national human rights institutions and non-governmental organizations of Mexico, Thailand and Ireland, whose reports will be reviewed this week. 

    Opening Statement

    ANDREA ORI, Chief of the Groups in Focus Section, Human Rights Council and Treaty Mechanisms Division, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, and Representative of the Secretary-General, said he was pleased to announce the opening of the session, after the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights was able to confirm it only last month due to the ongoing liquidity crisis affecting the United Nations.  The Committee’s pre-sessional working group, scheduled to be held after this session, and the sessions of both Optional Protocol Working Groups directly preceding this session were cancelled due to lack of funding.

    This year marked the twenty-fifth anniversary of Security Council resolution 1325 of 31 October 2000, a landmark document that recognised the disproportionate impact of conflicts on women and girls and the crucial role of women in conflict prevention, conflict management and sustainable peace efforts, reflecting international human rights norms.

    Some 120 conflicts were affecting civilians and communities worldwide, and women and girls were primarily targeted by gender-based violence, in particular sexual violence, as a tactic of war to humiliate, dominate, instil fear in, and displace communities.  Situations of insecurity, organised violence and armed conflicts exacerbated pre-existing gender inequalities and placed women and girls at an increased risk of gender-based violence.  Mr. Ori commended the Committee on its work to update general recommendation 30 on women in conflict prevention, conflict and post-conflict situations, which provided authoritative guidance to States parties on concrete measures to ensure that women’s rights were protected before, during and after conflict, and highlighted the importance of women’s meaningful participation in conflict prevention, resolution and peacebuilding.

    Mr. Ori welcomed that the Committee’s Chair would participate in the first panel of the 2025 annual full-day discussion on the human rights of women at the fifty-ninth session of the Human Rights Council, to be held on 24 June 2025 under the theme “Gender-based violence against women and girls in conflict, post-conflict and humanitarian settings”.  The second panel of the Council’s annual full-day discussion would focus on the theme “Commemoration of the International Day of Women in Diplomacy focusing on overcoming barriers to women’s leadership in peace processes”.  

    Mr. Ori said the global funding crisis was affecting the Committee’s work directly.  It was highly likely that, for those treaty bodies with three annual sessions, the Office of the High Commissioner would not be able to secure the funding to hold their third session.  The Office was therefore planning and operating under the assumption that no Committee would have a third session. The Office had received only 73 per cent of its approved regular budget in 2025, and 87 per cent of its approved regular budget in 2024. 

    The United Nations Office at Geneva’s conference services had also adopted cash conservation measures, which would impact the conference support provided to the United Nations human rights treaty bodies, with an overall reduction of 10 per cent.  With further reduction of the allotment, the mandated activities of treaty bodies would be even more affected in 2025 than in 2024. This would impact the treaty bodies’ ability to hold dialogues with States parties and to take decisions on individual communications, resulting in further delays and backlogs, and the Office was obliged to significantly reduce treaty body capacity building activities. 

    All this caused real damage to predictability, which was so important for States, civil society organizations and rights-holders to engage with treaty bodies.  Given the overall reduction in funds and availability of support services, “business as usual” was no longer possible and the treaty bodies needed to plan on “doing less with less”.

    The thirty-seventh annual meeting of Chairpersons of human rights treaty bodies was able to meet in Geneva from 2 to 6 June.  The Chairs dedicated the meeting to the liquidity crisis, which was affecting the very existence of treaty bodies, and to discussing what could be done to increase predictability under the current financial and human constraints. 

    Mr. Ori said he was aware that the Committee had a heavy programme ahead for the next three weeks, including constructive dialogues with eight States parties, the consideration of several individual communications, and the adoption of an addendum to general recommendation 30 on women in conflict prevention, conflict and post-conflict situations.  He concluded by thanking the Committee for its unwavering commitment and dedication to advancing women’s rights and wished it a successful and productive session.

    Questions by Committee Experts

    A Committee Expert said that more than 123 million people were currently displaced worldwide due to conflict situations, the majority of whom were women and children.  What could be the role of the United Nations in the future if it could not prevent these conflicts?

    Another Committee Expert asked why tens of countries were not providing the funds they had promised to provide. Was the United Nations considering reassessing its priorities to ensure that the Committee could hold three sessions each year?

    A Committee Expert said that the members of the Committee did not take the current situation lightly.  It was a grand shame and a disgust.  How could Member States let this happen?

    A Committee Expert said that reducing the activities of the treaty bodies would further silence them at this important moment.  Human rights systems needed to be reenforced, and this required resourcing.  How could this silencing be prevented?

    NAHLA HAIDAR, Committee Chairperson, said that it was unacceptable that the work of the treaty bodies was becoming less and less visible.  The Committee hoped that something would happen that would allow it to hold its third session in September.

    Responses by the Representative of the Secretary-General

    ANDREA ORI, Chief of the Groups in Focus Section, Human Rights Treaties Branch, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, and Representative of the Secretary-General, said the Office of the High Commissioner shared the Committee’s concerns. This was a turning point in multilateralism and in international law.  There were more than 120 conflicts in the world, the primary victims of which were women and children.  Authoritarian regimes were taking advantage of and working to weaken the multilateral system.

    Some 40 per cent of the United Nations’ regular budget depended on two States.  If one of those States decided not to pay its dues, that shook the entire Organization.  This was a major factor in the instability of the United Nations system.  The Secretary-General was working to reform the system through the “UN80” initiative, looking for solutions that kept it functioning with limited resources.

    The UN80 initiative was focused on reform.  This was an opportunity to reform the whole system rationally, to allow it to meet the challenges of today.  As part of the initiative, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights was merging and regionalising its functions.  The Office was thinking optimistically but planning for the worst. It needed to be proactive rather than reactive and consider alternatives to stabilise the human rights system. The Committee also needed to consider alternative ways of carrying out its activities and reviewing States parties. Together, the Office and the Committee could find solutions for the challenges they faced by taking proactive decisions.

    Statements by Committee Experts

    NAHLA HAIDAR, Committee Chairperson, said that the Committee had taken decisions to increase the production of lists of issues prior to reporting.  The United Nations system needed to not be reactive, and UN80 needed to implement thoughtful rather than patchwork reforms.

    The Committee was meeting in one of the most challenging times for the multilateral system, amidst devastating conflicts, a weakening of the rule of law, and scarce resources.  Human rights mechanisms needed to be protected more than ever for the benefit of all stakeholders.

    Since the last session, the number of States parties that had ratified the Convention had remained at 189.  On 15 May 2025, San Marino accepted the amendment to article 20, paragraph one of the Convention concerning the Committee’s meeting time, bringing the total number of States parties having accepted the amendment to 82.  A total of 126 States parties to the Convention were currently required to accept the amendment for it to enter into force.  The number of States parties that had ratified the Optional Protocol remained at 115, but Estonia was in the process of ratification.

    Ms. Haidar said she was pleased to inform that since the last session, Afghanistan, Australia, Cyprus and Guinea-Bissau had submitted their periodic reports to the Committee.  The interim government of Syria had decided to withdraw the combined third and fourth periodic reports that had been submitted by the previous regime and submit a new report under the traditional reporting procedure.  The total number of States parties that had opted out from the simplified reporting procedure since the 2022 decision to make the simplified reporting procedure the default procedure remained at 13. 

    The Committee adopted its agenda and programme of work for the session, and Ms. Haidar and Committee Experts discussed the activities they had undertaken since the last session. 

    BANDANA RANA, on behalf of BRENDA AKIA, Committee Rapporteur and Chair of the Pre-Sessional Working Group, introduced the report of the pre-sessional Working Group for the ninety-first session, which met from 28 October to 1 November 2024 in Geneva.

    The Working Group prepared lists of issues and questions in relation to the reports of Botswana, Cabo Verde, Czech Republic, El Salvador and Lesotho, in addition to lists of issues and questions prior to the submission of the reports of Equatorial Guinea, Libya and Malta under the simplified reporting procedure.  The pre-sessional Working Group had the reports of these States parties, except for those of Equatorial Guinea, Libya and Malta, to be submitted in response to the respective lists of issues prior to reporting.  It further had before it the general recommendations adopted by the Committee; draft lists of issues and questions and lists of issues prior to reporting prepared by the Secretariat; and other pertinent information, including concluding observations of the Committee and other treaty bodies.  In preparing the lists, the Working Group paid particular attention to the States parties’ follow-up to the concluding observations of the Committee on their previous reports.  The Working Group benefited from written and oral information submitted by entities of the United Nations system and non-governmental organizations, as well as by national human rights institutions.  The lists of issues and questions and lists of issues prior to reporting adopted by the Working Group were transmitted to the States parties concerned.

    NAHLA HAIDAR, Committee Chairperson, said that, in light of the backlog of State party reports pending consideration by the Committee accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Committee had decided to postpone the consideration of the States parties referred to in the report of the pre-sessional Working Group to future sessions, with the exception of Botswana.  The Committee instead decided to, during the present session, consider the reports of Afghanistan, Botswana, Chad, Ireland, Mexico, San Marino and Thailand, and adopt concluding observations on Fiji, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu, following country exchanges held during the Pacific technical cooperation session in Suva, Fiji from 7 to 11 April 2025.

    JELENA PIA-COMELLA, Committee Rapporteur on follow-up to concluding observations, briefed the Committee on the status of the follow-up reports received in response to the Committee’s concluding observations.  She said that at the end of the Committee’s ninetieth session, follow-up letters outlining the outcomes of assessments of follow-up reports were sent to Belgium, Gambia, Portugal, Sweden and Switzerland.  Reminders were sent to Honduras, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Ukraine, as their follow-up reports were scheduled for consideration at the ninetieth session but had not been received.  Ukraine’s report had since been received and would be scheduled for assessment by the Committee at its ninety-second session in October 2025.

    For the present session, the Committee would consider follow-up reports from Finland and Georgia, both received on time; Bahrain and Norway, received with a one-month delay; Armenia, with more than two months’ delay; and Mongolia, Namibia and the United Arab Emirates with more than five months’ delay.  Reminders regarding the submission of follow-up reports would be sent to Costa Rica, Hungary and Mauritania.

    ___________

    Produced by the United Nations Information Service in Geneva for use of the media; 
    not an official record. English and French versions of our releases are different as they are the product of two separate coverage teams that work independently.

     

    CEDAW25.011E

    MIL OSI United Nations News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: President Lai meets delegation led by Representative Bera, co-chair of US Congressional Taiwan Caucus

    Source: Republic of China Taiwan

    Details
    2025-06-13
    President Lai meets delegation led by French National Assembly Taiwan Friendship Group Chair Marie-Noëlle Battistel
    On the morning of June 12, President Lai Ching-te met a delegation led by Marie-Noëlle Battistel, chair of the French National Assembly’s Taiwan Friendship Group. In remarks, President Lai thanked the National Assembly for its long-term support for Taiwan’s international participation and for upholding security in the Taiwan Strait, helping make France the first major country in the world to enact legislation to uphold freedom of navigation in the Taiwan Strait. The president also said that exchanges and cooperation between Taiwan and France are becoming more frequent, and that he hopes this visit by the Taiwan Friendship Group will inject new momentum into Taiwan-France relations and help build closer partnerships in the economy, trade, energy, and digital security.  A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: First, I would like to welcome Chair Battistel, who is once again leading a visiting delegation. Last year, Chair Battistel co-led a delegation to attend the inauguration ceremony for myself and Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao. This is her fourth visit, and first as chair of the Taiwan Friendship Group, which makes it especially meaningful. This delegation’s visit demonstrates strong support for Taiwan, and on behalf of the people of Taiwan, I want to express my sincerest welcome and thanks. France is a pioneer in promoting free and democratic values. These are values that Taiwan cherishes and is working hard to defend. I want to express gratitude to the French Parliament for their long-term support for Taiwan’s international participation, and for upholding security in the Taiwan Strait. The French Parliament’s two chambers have continued to strongly support Taiwan, with the passage of a resolution supporting Taiwan’s participation in international organizations in 2021, as well as the passage of the seven-year Military Programming Law in 2023. This has made France the first major country in the world to enact legislation to uphold freedom of navigation in the Taiwan Strait. Through it all, the Taiwan Friendship Group has played a key role, and I want to thank all of our distinguished guests for their efforts. Over the past few years, Taiwan and France have continued to deepen cooperation in areas including the economy, technology, culture, and sports. At the Choose France summit held in Paris last month, Taiwanese and French enterprises also announced they will launch cooperation in the semiconductor and satellite fields. The VivaTech startup exhibition, now being held in France, also has many Taiwanese vendors participating. Exchanges and cooperation between Taiwan and France, whether official or people-to-people, are becoming more and more frequent. I hope that this visit by the Taiwan Friendship Group will inject new momentum into Taiwan-France relations, building closer partnerships in the economy, trade, energy, and digital security.  To address current geopolitical and economic challenges, Taiwan will continue to join forces with France and other like-minded countries to jointly safeguard peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, and contribute our concerted efforts to global prosperity and development. Once again, I want to welcome our visitors to Taiwan. I hope to continue our joint efforts to create a more prosperous future for both Taiwan and France.   Chair Battistel then delivered remarks, thanking President Lai for extending this invitation. Last year on May 20, she said, she and her delegation attended the presidential inauguration ceremony, so she was delighted to visit Taiwan once again with the French National Assembly’s Taiwan Friendship Group and bear witness to their friendship with Taiwan. Chair Battistel noted that this visit has given them an opportunity to strengthen Taiwan-France relations in areas including the economy, culture, the humanities, and diplomacy, and conduct exchanges with numerous heads of government agencies and research institutes. It has also been an opportunity, she said, to witness the importance of exchanges and cooperation with Taiwan in areas including energy, semiconductors, youth, and culture, and the impact created by important issues of mutual concern, including AI and disinformation, on the security of many countries. Chair Battistel praised Taiwan for its youth development efforts, and said that under the Taiwan Global Pathfinders Initiative, 30 Taiwanese young people have embarked on a visit to France, with itineraries including the United Nations Ocean Conference and the VivaTech exhibition, as well as the city of Toulouse, which is strategically important for the aerospace industry. Members of the group are also conducting exchanges at the French National Assembly, she said.  Chair Battistel stated that the Taiwan-France partnership is growing closer, and that she hopes to continue to strengthen bilateral exchanges and cooperation, as supporting peace for Taiwan supports peace around the world.  The delegation also included Taiwan Friendship Group Vice Chair Éric Martineau, as well as National Assembly Committee on Foreign Affairs Vice Chair Laetitia Saint-Paul and Deputies Marie-José Allemand and Claudia Rouaux. The delegation was accompanied to the Presidential Office by French Office in Taipei Deputy Director Cléa Le Cardeur.

    Details
    2025-06-05
    President Lai hosts state banquet for President Bernardo Arévalo of Republic of Guatemala  
    At noon on June 5, President Lai Ching-te hosted a state banquet at the Presidential Office for President Bernardo Arévalo of the Republic of Guatemala and his wife. In his remarks, President Lai noted that Taiwan and Guatemala have both undergone an arduous democratization process, and therefore, in face of the continuous expansion of authoritarian influence, must join hands in brotherhood and come together in solidarity to safeguard our hard-earned freedom and democracy. President Lai also expressed hope that both countries will work together and continue to deepen various exchanges and cooperation, taking a friendship that has lasted over 90 years to new heights. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: Once again, I would like to offer a warm welcome to President Arévalo and First Lady Lucrecia Peinado, who are leading this delegation to Taiwan. President Arévalo’s previous visit to Taiwan was 31 years ago. Back then, Taiwan did not have direct presidential elections, and the nation was continuing to make progress toward democratization. Today, 31 years later, Taiwan has conducted direct presidential elections eight times, with three transfers of power between political parties. On this visit, I am sure that President Arévalo will gain a deep appreciation for Taiwan’s free and democratic atmosphere.  Taiwan and Guatemala have both undergone an arduous democratization process. A little over 200 years ago, the people of Guatemala took a stand against colonial oppression, seeking national dignity and the freedom of its people. Eighty-one years ago, President Arévalo’s father, Juan José Arévalo, became Guatemala’s first democratically elected president, establishing an important foundation for subsequent democratic development.  Our two peoples have democracy in their blood. Both know the value of freedom and democracy and are willing to take a stand for those values. Therefore, in face of the continuous expansion of authoritarian influence, our two countries must join hands in brotherhood to respond to threats and challenges, and come together in solidarity to safeguard our hard-earned freedom and democracy. I hope that both countries will work together to continue to deepen various exchanges and cooperation, taking a friendship that has lasted over 90 years to new heights. I hope that on this visit, in addition to gaining a deeper understanding of Taiwan’s political, economic, and social development, President Arévalo can also reacquaint himself with the democratic vitality and cultural diversity of Taiwan by sampling various gourmet delicacies and once again experiencing the beauty of our scenery and warmth of our people. Guatemala is a very beautiful country. In the future, I hope to have a chance to personally experience that beauty, explore Mayan civilization, and savor local Guatemalan coffee. In closing, I wish the visiting delegation a smooth and successful trip, and beautiful, unforgettable memories. May President Arévalo enjoy the best of health, and may the diplomatic friendship between our two countries endure. President Arévalo then delivered remarks, stating that at different times and by different means, the people of Taiwan and Guatemala have relentlessly sought to defend freedom and democracy. We share the same expectations, he said, and are walking the right path amid today’s complex international circumstances.  President Arévalo stated that Taiwan and Guatemala are true democratic nations, where the government’s goal is to serve all the people. He noted that this is far from easy under current circumstances, as many authoritarian regimes use their long-term hold on power to safeguard the interests of select groups and neglect the wellbeing of the population as a whole. President Arévalo said that last week Guatemala commemorated the 40th anniversary of its constitution, which was enacted in 1985 and is Guatemala’s ultimate guide, setting the foundation for democracy and clearly outlining the path ahead. He said that over the past 40 years, Guatemala has continued to follow the democratic blueprint established by the constitution and end the civil war so that the nation could make the transition to real democracy. Although more than a few ambitious people have attempted to destroy that process from within, he noted, the people of Guatemala have never given up the pursuit of democracy as an ideal. President Arévalo stated that our two sides’ coming together here is due to such shared values as freedom and democracy as well as the idea of serving all the people. He underlined that the governments of both countries will continue to work hard and provide mutual support to smooth out each other’s path of democracy, freedom, and justice. President Arévalo emphasized that the government of Guatemala will always be Taiwan’s ally, and that he firmly believes Taiwan is Guatemala’s most reliable partner on the path of democracy and economic prosperity and development. The president said he hopes this visit will be the first step towards setting a new course for the governments and peoples of both countries. Also in attendance at the banquet were Guatemala Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Ramiro Martínez, Minister of the Economy Gabriela García, and Guatemala Ambassador Luis Raúl Estévez López.  

    Details
    2025-06-05
    President Lai welcomes President Bernardo Arévalo of Republic of Guatemala with military honors  
    On the morning of June 5, President Lai Ching-te welcomed with full military honors President Bernardo Arévalo of the Republic of Guatemala and his wife, who are leading a delegation of cabinet members visiting Taiwan for the first time, demonstrating the deep and enduring alliance between our nations. In remarks, President Lai noted that over the past few years, bilateral cooperation between Taiwan and Guatemala has grown closer and more diverse, and said that moving forward, based on a foundation of mutual assistance for mutual benefit, we will continue to promote programs in line with international trends, spurring prosperity and development in both our nations. The military honors ceremony began at 10:30 a.m. in the Entrance Hall of the Presidential Office. After a 21-gun salute and the playing of the two countries’ national anthems, President Lai and President Arévalo each delivered remarks. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: Today, President Arévalo and First Lady Lucrecia Peinado are leading a delegation of cabinet members visiting Taiwan for the first time, demonstrating the deep and enduring alliance between our nations. On behalf of the people and government of the Republic of China (Taiwan), I want to extend my sincerest welcome. Last year, our two countries celebrated the 90th anniversary of diplomatic ties, providing mutual support all along the way. Especially over the past few years, bilateral cooperation has grown closer and more diverse. We have a long record of remarkable results, whether in terms of medicine and public health, education and culture, technological cooperation, or economic and trade exchanges. Moving forward, based on a foundation of mutual assistance for mutual benefit, Taiwan and Guatemala will continue to promote programs in line with international trends. We will continue to strengthen exchange and cooperation for young people, as well as scholarship programs, and actively cultivate high-tech and information and communications technology industry talent, spurring prosperity and development in both our nations. Although separated by a great distance, the peoples of both countries are closely connected by their ideals and values. I am confident that with President Arévalo’s support, bilateral exchanges and cooperation will become closer and more diverse, beginning a very promising new chapter. I wish the visiting delegation a smooth and successful trip. President Arévalo then delivered remarks, saying that on behalf of the government and people of Guatemala, he is honored to visit the Republic of China (Taiwan), this beautiful nation, and to receive full military honors, which reflects the mutual respect between our two nations as well as our solid friendship. Especially as this state visit comes as we celebrate 90 years of formal diplomatic ties, he said, he has brought the foreign minister, economics minister, private secretary to the president, and social communication secretary as members of his delegation, in the hope of our ties embarking on a new chapter. President Arévalo said that Guatemala-Taiwan ties have in recent years been growing steadily on a foundation of mutual understanding and cooperation, making significant progress, and that our peoples have also cultivated sincere friendships and cooperative relationships across many fields. Our nations are especially promoting public health, education, agricultural technology, and infrastructure, he said, key fields which are conducive to economic and social development. He expressed his hope that on such good foundations of the past, we can further strengthen our bilateral ties for the future. President Arévalo stated that through this state visit they not only want to reaffirm the good bilateral ties between our nations, but that they also hope to define a trajectory for the future of our cooperation in the direction of expanding economic cooperation, building economic and trade alliances, and facilitating investment to foster a Taiwan-Guatemala relationship that benefits both peoples. He then expressed gratitude to the people of Taiwan for helping Guatemala over the past 90 years and reaffirmed the unwavering support of Guatemala for the Republic of China (Taiwan). On the occasion of this visit, he said, he hopes to extend a friendly hand to the people of Taiwan, adding that he looks forward to our nations continuing to take major steps forward on the road of mutual assistance and prosperity. Also in attendance at the welcome ceremony were Dean of the Diplomatic Corps and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Ambassador Andrea Clare Bowman, and members of the foreign diplomatic corps in Taiwan.  

    Details
    2025-06-03
    President Lai confers decoration on President Hilda C. Heine of Republic of the Marshall Islands, hosts state banquet  
    At noon on June 3, President Lai Ching-te, accompanied by Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao, conferred a decoration upon President Hilda C. Heine of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and hosted a state banquet for President Heine and her husband at the Presidential Office. In remarks, President Lai thanked President Heine for her commitment to deepening the diplomatic partnership between our nations and speaking up for Taiwan in the international arena. He also expressed hope for Taiwan and the Marshall Islands to work together to address various challenges through an even greater diversity of exchanges, and that together, we can contribute even more to peace, stability, and development throughout the Pacific region. At the decoration ceremony, President Lai personally conferred the Order of Brilliant Jade with Grand Cordon on President Heine before delivering remarks, a translation of which follows:  The Marshall Islands was the first Pacific ally that I visited after taking office as president. When I arrived there, I was immediately drawn to its beautiful scenery. And I received a very warm welcome from the local people. This gesture showed the profound friendship between our two nations. I was truly touched. I also remember trying your nation’s special Bob Whisky for the first time. The flavor was as unique and impressive as the landscape of the Marshall Islands.  In addition to welcoming our distinguished guests today, we also presented President Heine with the Order of Brilliant Jade with Grand Cordon. On behalf of the people of Taiwan, I want to thank President Heine for her commitment to deepening the diplomatic partnership between our nations, and for staunchly speaking up for Taiwan in the international arena. Both I and the people of Taiwan are profoundly grateful to President Heine for her friendship and support. Over the past few years, cooperation between Taiwan and the Marshall Islands has grown ever closer. And this visit by our distinguished guests will allow our two countries to further expand areas of bilateral exchange. I have always believed that only through mutual assistance and trust can two countries build a longstanding and steadfast partnership. I once again convey my sincere aspiration that Taiwan and the Marshall Islands work together to address various challenges through an even greater diversity of exchanges. Together, we can contribute even more to peace, stability, and development throughout the Pacific region. In closing, I want to thank President Heine and First Gentleman Thomas Kijiner, Jr. for leading this delegation to Taiwan, which deepens the foundations of our bilateral relationship. May our two nations enjoy a long and enduring friendship. President Heine then delivered remarks, stating that she felt especially privileged to receive the Order of Brilliant Jade with Grand Cordon of the Republic of China (Taiwan), and humbly accepted the honor with the utmost gratitude, humility, and deep responsibility. This is a deep responsibility, she said, because she understands that since its inception in 1933, this order has been bestowed upon a select few. She then thanked President Lai for this great honor. President Heine stated that the banquet was not just a celebration of our bilateral friendship, but a true reflection of the generosity of the Taiwan spirit and a testament to the enduring ties between our nations, founded on shared values and aspirations, including a respect for the rule of law, the preservation of human dignity, and a deep commitment to democracy. President Heine stated that the Taiwan-Marshall Islands partnership continues to evolve through practical cooperation and mutual support. In recent years, she said, our countries have worked hand in hand across a range of vital sectors, including the recent opening of the Majuro Hospital AI and Telehealth Center and the ongoing and successful Taiwan Health Center, various technical training and scholarship programs, and various climate change adaptation projects in renewable energy, coastal resilience, and sustainable agriculture.   President Heine emphasized that the Marshall Islands continues to be a proud and vocal supporter of Taiwan’s meaningful participation in the United Nations system and other international organizations. Taiwan’s exclusion from these platforms, she said, is not only unjust, but is bad for the world, and the global community needs Taiwan’s voice and expertise.  President Heine also expressed sincere appreciation to all of the Taiwanese friends who have contributed their efforts to deepening bilateral relations, including government officials, healthcare workers, teachers, engineers, and volunteers. The people of the Marshall Islands, she said, deeply appreciate and value everyone’s efforts and service. President Heine said that as we celebrate our partnership, let us look to the future with hope and determination, continue to work together, learn from one another, and support one another to champion a world where all nations can chart their own course based on peace and international law. Also attending the state banquet were Marshall Islands Council of Iroij Chairman Lanny Kabua, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Kalani R. Kaneko, Minister of Finance David Paul, Nitijela Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade Chairperson Joe Bejang, and Charge d’Affaires a.i. Anjanette Davis-Anjel of the Embassy of the Republic of the Marshall Islands.  

    Details
    2025-06-03
    President Lai and President Hilda C. Heine of Marshall Islands hold bilateral talks and witness signing of agreements
    On the morning of June 3, President Lai Ching-te, accompanied by Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao, held bilateral talks with President Hilda C. Heine of the Republic of the Marshall Islands at the Presidential Office following a welcome ceremony with military honors for her and her husband. The leaders also jointly witnessed the signing of a letter of intent for sports exchanges and a memorandum of understanding regarding the Presidents’ Scholarship Fund. President Lai then presided over a launch ceremony for a loan program to purchase aircraft. In remarks, President Lai thanked the government and the Nitijela (parliament) of the Marshall Islands for their longstanding support for Taiwan’s international participation and for voicing staunch support for Taiwan at numerous international venues. President Lai said that Taiwan looks forward to continuing to deepen its diplomatic partnership with the Marshall Islands and build an even closer cooperative relationship across a range of fields, engaging in mutual assistance for mutual benefits and helping each other achieve joint and prosperous development to yield even greater well-being for our peoples. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: I once again warmly welcome President Heine, First Gentleman Thomas Kijiner, Jr., and our guests to Taiwan. During my visit to the Marshall Islands last year, I said that Taiwan and the Marshall Islands are truly a family. When Vice President Hsiao and I took office last year, President Heine led a delegation to Taiwan. It is now one year since our inauguration, and I am delighted to see President Heine once again, just as if I were seeing family arrive from afar. Through my visit to the Marshall Islands, I gained a profound sense of the friendship between the peoples of our two nations, well-demonstrated by bilateral exchanges in such areas as healthcare, agriculture, and education. And it is thanks to President Heine’s longstanding support for Taiwan that our countries have been able to further advance collaboration on even more issues, including women’s empowerment and climate change. In recent years, the geopolitical and economic landscape has changed rapidly. We look forward to Taiwan and the Marshall Islands continuing to deepen our partnership and build an even closer cooperative relationship. In just a few moments, President Heine and I will witness the signing of several documents, including a memorandum of understanding and a letter of intent, to expand bilateral cooperation in such fields as sports, education, and transportation. Taiwan will take concrete action to work with the Marshall Islands and advance mutual prosperity and development, writing a new chapter in our diplomatic partnership. I would also like to take this opportunity to express gratitude to the government and Nitijela of the Marshall Islands. In recent years, the Nitijela has passed annual resolutions backing Taiwan’s international participation, and President Heine and Marshallese cabinet members have been some of the strongest advocates for Taiwan’s international participation, voicing staunch support for Taiwan at numerous international venues. Building on the pillars of democracy, peace, and prosperity, Taiwan will continue to work with the Marshall Islands and other like-minded countries to deepen our partnerships, engage in mutual assistance for mutual benefits, and help one another achieve joint and prosperous development. I have every confidence that the combined efforts of our two nations will yield even greater well-being for our peoples and see us make even more contributions to the world. President Heine then delivered remarks, and began by conveying warm greetings of iokwe from the people and government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to the people and government of the Republic of China (Taiwan). She said she was deeply honored to be in Taiwan for an official visit, and extended appreciation to President Lai and his government for their gracious invitation and warm welcome. President Heine stated that this year marks 27 years of diplomatic ties between our two nations, and that they are proud of this enduring friendship. This special and enduring relationship, she said, is grounded in our shared Austronesian heritage, and strengthened by mutual respect for each other’s democratic systems and our steadfast commitment to the core values of freedom, justice, and the rule of law. President Heine stated that Taiwan’s continued support has been invaluable to the people and national development of the Marshall Islands, particularly in the areas of health, education, agriculture, and climate change. She also expressed deep appreciation to Taiwan for providing Marshallese students with opportunities to study in Taiwan, and for the care extended to Marshallese who travel here for medical treatment. President Heine also announced that she would be presenting a copy of a resolution by the people and government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands reiterating their appreciation for the support provided by the people and government of the Republic of China (Taiwan), and calling on the United Nations to take immediate action to resolve the inappropriate exclusion of Taiwan’s 23 million people from the UN system. She added that she looked forward to the bilateral discussions later that day, and to continuing the important work that both countries carry out together. After the bilateral talks, President Lai and President Heine witnessed the signing of a letter of intent regarding sports exchanges and a memorandum of understanding regarding the Presidents’ Scholarship Fund by Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) and Marshallese Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Kalani R. Kaneko. President Lai then presided over a launch ceremony for a loan program to purchase aircraft, marking the formal beginning of Taiwan-Marshall Islands air transport cooperation. The visiting delegation also included Council of Iroij Chairman Lanny Kabua, Minister of Finance David Paul, and Nitijela Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade Chair Joe Bejang. They were accompanied to the Presidential Office by Charge d’Affaires a.i. Anjanette Davis-Anjel of the Embassy of the Republic of the Marshall Islands.

    Details
    2025-05-20
    President Lai interviewed by Nippon Television and Yomiuri TV
    In a recent interview on Nippon Television’s news zero program, President Lai Ching-te responded to questions from host Mr. Sakurai Sho and Yomiuri TV Shanghai Bureau Chief Watanabe Masayo on topics including reflections on his first year in office, cross-strait relations, China’s military threats, Taiwan-United States relations, and Taiwan-Japan relations. The interview was broadcast on the evening of May 19. During the interview, President Lai stated that China intends to change the world’s rules-based international order, and that if Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted. Therefore, he said, Taiwan will strengthen its national defense, prevent war by preparing for war, and achieve the goal of peace. The president also noted that Taiwan’s purpose for developing drones is based on national security and industrial needs, and that Taiwan hopes to collaborate with Japan. He then reiterated that China’s threats are an international problem, and expressed hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war. Following is the text of the questions and the president’s responses: Q: How do you feel as you are about to round out your first year in office? President Lai: When I was young, I was determined to practice medicine and save lives. When I left medicine to go into politics, I was determined to transform Taiwan. And when I was sworn in as president on May 20 last year, I was determined to strengthen the nation. Time flies, and it has already been a year. Although the process has been very challenging, I am deeply honored to be a part of it. I am also profoundly grateful to our citizens for allowing me the opportunity to give back to our country. The future will certainly be full of more challenges, but I will do everything I can to unite the people and continue strengthening the nation. That is how I am feeling now. Q: We are now coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and over this period, we have often heard that conflict between Taiwan and the mainland is imminent. Do you personally believe that a cross-strait conflict could happen? President Lai: The international community is very much aware that China intends to replace the US and change the world’s rules-based international order, and annexing Taiwan is just the first step. So, as China’s military power grows stronger, some members of the international community are naturally on edge about whether a cross-strait conflict will break out. The international community must certainly do everything in its power to avoid a conflict in the Taiwan Strait; there is too great a cost. Besides causing direct disasters to both Taiwan and China, the impact on the global economy would be even greater, with estimated losses of US$10 trillion from war alone – that is roughly 10 percent of the global GDP. Additionally, 20 percent of global shipping passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, so if a conflict breaks out in the strait, other countries including Japan and Korea would suffer a grave impact. For Japan and Korea, a quarter of external transit passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, and a third of the various energy resources and minerals shipped back from other countries pass through said areas. If Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted, and therefore conflict in the Taiwan Strait must be avoided. Such a conflict is indeed avoidable. I am very thankful to Prime Minister of Japan Ishiba Shigeru and former Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo, Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida Fumio, as well as US President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden, and the other G7 leaders, for continuing to emphasize at international venues that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are essential components for global security and prosperity. When everyone in the global democratic community works together, stacking up enough strength to make China’s objectives unattainable or to make the cost of invading Taiwan too high for it to bear, a conflict in the strait can naturally be avoided. Q: As you said, President Lai, maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is also very important for other countries. How can war be avoided? What sort of countermeasures is Taiwan prepared to take to prevent war? President Lai: As Mr. Sakurai mentioned earlier, we are coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII. There are many lessons we can take from that war. First is that peace is priceless, and war has no winners. From the tragedies of WWII, there are lessons that humanity should learn. We must pursue peace, and not start wars blindly, as that would be a major disaster for humanity. In other words, we must be determined to safeguard peace. The second lesson is that we cannot be complacent toward authoritarian powers. If you give them an inch, they will take a mile. They will keep growing, and eventually, not only will peace be unattainable, but war will be inevitable. The third lesson is why WWII ended: It ended because different groups joined together in solidarity. Taiwan, Japan, and the Indo-Pacific region are all directly subjected to China’s threats, so we hope to be able to join together in cooperation. This is why we proposed the Four Pillars of Peace action plan. First, we will strengthen our national defense. Second, we will strengthen economic resilience. Third is standing shoulder to shoulder with the democratic community to demonstrate the strength of deterrence. Fourth is that as long as China treats Taiwan with parity and dignity, Taiwan is willing to conduct exchanges and cooperate with China, and seek peace and mutual prosperity. These four pillars can help us avoid war and achieve peace. That is to say, Taiwan hopes to achieve peace through strength, prevent war by preparing for war, keeping war from happening and pursuing the goal of peace. Q: Regarding drones, everyone knows that recently, Taiwan has been actively researching, developing, and introducing drones. Why do you need to actively research, develop, and introduce new drones at this time? President Lai: This is for two purposes. The first is to meet national security needs. The second is to meet industrial development needs. Because Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines are all part of the first island chain, and we are all democratic nations, we cannot be like an authoritarian country like China, which has an unlimited national defense budget. In this kind of situation, island nations such as Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines should leverage their own technologies to develop national defense methods that are asymmetric and utilize unmanned vehicles. In particular, from the Russo-Ukrainian War, we see that Ukraine has successfully utilized unmanned vehicles to protect itself and prevent Russia from unlimited invasion. In other words, the Russo-Ukrainian War has already proven the importance of drones. Therefore, the first purpose of developing drones is based on national security needs. Second, the world has already entered the era of smart technology. Whether generative, agentic, or physical, AI will continue to develop. In the future, cars and ships will also evolve into unmanned vehicles and unmanned boats, and there will be unmanned factories. Drones will even be able to assist with postal deliveries, or services like Uber, Uber Eats, and foodpanda, or agricultural irrigation and pesticide spraying. Therefore, in the future era of comprehensive smart technology, developing unmanned vehicles is a necessity. Taiwan, based on industrial needs, is actively planning the development of drones and unmanned vehicles. I would like to take this opportunity to express Taiwan’s hope to collaborate with Japan in the unmanned vehicle industry. Just as we do in the semiconductor industry, where Japan has raw materials, equipment, and technology, and Taiwan has wafer manufacturing, our two countries can cooperate. Japan is a technological power, and Taiwan also has significant technological strengths. If Taiwan and Japan work together, we will not only be able to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and security in the Indo-Pacific region, but it will also be very helpful for the industrial development of both countries. Q: The drones you just described probably include examples from the Russo-Ukrainian War. Taiwan and China are separated by the Taiwan Strait. Do our drones need to have cross-sea flight capabilities? President Lai: Taiwan does not intend to counterattack the mainland, and does not intend to invade any country. Taiwan’s drones are meant to protect our own nation and territory. Q: Former President Biden previously stated that US forces would assist Taiwan’s defense in the event of an attack. President Trump, however, has yet to clearly state that the US would help defend Taiwan. Do you think that in such an event, the US would help defend Taiwan? Or is Taiwan now trying to persuade the US? President Lai: Former President Biden and President Trump have answered questions from reporters. Although their responses were different, strong cooperation with Taiwan under the Biden administration has continued under the Trump administration; there has been no change. During President Trump’s first term, cooperation with Taiwan was broader and deeper compared to former President Barack Obama’s terms. After former President Biden took office, cooperation with Taiwan increased compared to President Trump’s first term. Now, during President Trump’s second term, cooperation with Taiwan is even greater than under former President Biden. Taiwan-US cooperation continues to grow stronger, and has not changed just because President Trump and former President Biden gave different responses to reporters. Furthermore, the Trump administration publicly stated that in the future, the US will shift its strategic focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. The US secretary of defense even publicly stated that the primary mission of the US is to prevent China from invading Taiwan, maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, and thus maintain world peace. There is a saying in Taiwan that goes, “Help comes most to those who help themselves.” Before asking friends and allies for assistance in facing threats from China, Taiwan must first be determined and prepared to defend itself. This is Taiwan’s principle, and we are working in this direction, making all the necessary preparations to safeguard the nation. Q: I would like to ask you a question about Taiwan-Japan relations. After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, you made an appeal to give Japan a great deal of assistance and care. In particular, you visited Sendai to offer condolences. Later, you also expressed condolences and concern after the earthquakes in Aomori and Kumamoto. What are your expectations for future Taiwan-Japan exchanges and development? President Lai: I come from Tainan, and my constituency is in Tainan. Tainan has very deep ties with Japan, and of course, Taiwan also has deep ties with Japan. However, among Taiwan’s 22 counties and cities, Tainan has the deepest relationship with Japan. I sincerely hope that both of you and your teams will have an opportunity to visit Tainan. I will introduce Tainan’s scenery, including architecture from the era of Japanese rule, Tainan’s cuisine, and unique aspects of Tainan society, and you can also see lifestyles and culture from the Showa era.  The Wushantou Reservoir in Tainan was completed by engineer Mr. Hatta Yoichi from Kanazawa, Japan and the team he led to Tainan after he graduated from then-Tokyo Imperial University. It has nearly a century of history and is still in use today. This reservoir, along with the 16,000-km-long Chianan Canal, transformed the 150,000-hectare Chianan Plain into Taiwan’s premier rice-growing area. It was that foundation in agriculture that enabled Taiwan to develop industry and the technology sector of today. The reservoir continues to supply water to Tainan Science Park. It is used by residents of Tainan, the agricultural sector, and industry, and even the technology sector in Xinshi Industrial Park, as well as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Because of this, the people of Tainan are deeply grateful for Mr. Hatta and very friendly toward the people of Japan. A major earthquake, the largest in 50 years, struck Tainan on February 6, 2016, resulting in significant casualties. As mayor of Tainan at the time, I was extremely grateful to then-Prime Minister Abe, who sent five Japanese officials to the disaster site in Tainan the day after the earthquake. They were very thoughtful and asked what kind of assistance we needed from the Japanese government. They offered to provide help based on what we needed. I was deeply moved, as former Prime Minister Abe showed such care, going beyond the formality of just sending supplies that we may or may not have actually needed. Instead, the officials asked what we needed and then provided assistance based on those needs, which really moved me. Similarly, when the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 or the later Kumamoto earthquakes struck, the people of Tainan, under my leadership, naturally and dutifully expressed their support. Even earlier, when central Taiwan was hit by a major earthquake in 1999, Japan was the first country to deploy a rescue team to the disaster area. On February 6, 2018, after a major earthquake in Hualien, former Prime Minister Abe appeared in a video holding up a message of encouragement he had written in calligraphy saying “Remain strong, Taiwan.” All of Taiwan was deeply moved. Over the years, Taiwan and Japan have supported each other when earthquakes struck, and have forged bonds that are family-like, not just neighborly. This is truly valuable. In the future, I hope Taiwan and Japan can be like brothers, and that the peoples of Taiwan and Japan can treat one another like family. If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem; if Japan has a problem, then Taiwan has a problem. By caring for and helping each other, we can face various challenges and difficulties, and pursue a brighter future. Q: President Lai, you just used the phrase “If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem.” In the event that China attempts to invade Taiwan by force, what kind of response measures would you hope the US military and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces take? President Lai: As I just mentioned, annexing Taiwan is only China’s first step. Its ultimate objective is to change the rules-based international order. That being the case, China’s threats are an international problem. So, I would very much hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war – prevention, after all, is more important than cure.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Africa: Global: Urgent action needed as climate crisis leads to devastating new harms to human rights


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    States must urgently deliver ambitious climate action by mapping out a just transition away from fossil fuels in all sectors to prevent even worse human rights harms around the world, Amnesty International said in a new briefing to mark the start of the Bonn Climate Conference which takes place between 16-26 June.

    Despite the challenges posed by the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, increases in authoritarian practices globally and the growing environmental devastation of the escalating armed conflicts in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Sudan and Ukraine, among others, it is not too late for states to find common ground and ramp up climate ambition for the planet and the rights of current and future generations.

    In 2024, for the first time, the world breached the threshold of 1.5°C of global heating above pre-industrial levels. During the hottest year on record, wildfires ripped through Latin America, the Caribbean was hit by the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record, and parts of Central Europe were deluged with three months’ worth of rain in five days as the climate emergency worsened, driven by human activity and the continued burning of fossil fuels.

    “The devastating new human rights harms resulting from climate change will escalate dramatically unless global heating is kept in check. More people will be driven deeper into poverty, lose their homes or suffer the effects of drought and food insecurity. Despite the deepening climate crisis, governments’ action to limit fossil fuel production and use has been wholly inadequate,” said Ann Harrison, Amnesty International’s Climate Justice Advisor.  

    “Governments are in thrall to fossil fuel companies which have sought to downplay climate harms and discredit climate science. States continue to provide subsidies to these companies, effectively incentivizing the continuation of the fossil fuel industry. Everyone has the right to live in a clean, healthy and sustainable environment – but as the climate crisis intensifies, this right, and others, are under growing threat.”

    Across the globe, unnatural disasters exacerbated by climate change, such as worsening droughts and severe floods, are damaging harvests and leading to food scarcity and water shortages, contributing to displacement, migration and conflict.

    Protecting and listening to grassroots voices

    Marginalized frontline and fence line communities that use fossil fuels the least continue to suffer some of the worst impacts of climate change. They include subsistence farmers, Indigenous Peoples and those living in low lying island states, threatened by rising sea levels and more powerful storms, or those living beside fossil fuel production and transport facilities.

    For example, Pakistan contributes less than 1% of greenhouse gas emissions annually but is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate disasters. In a report published last month, Amnesty International documented how increasingly frequent floods and heatwaves are leading to preventable deaths, particularly among young children and older adults.

    Despite the urgency of the climate crisis, those demanding action from the authorities are being harassed, stigmatized, attacked and criminalized. Around the world, environmental human rights defenders (EHRDs) are risking their lives and liberty for defending their lands and communities’ right to a healthy environment, such as the Warriors for the Amazon in Ecuador.

    The conference is an opportunity to spotlight the situation in COP29 host Azerbaijan, where environmental human rights defender Anar Mammadli and journalist Nargiz Absalamova who reported on environmental issues remain behind bars. Other journalists who reported on the human rights situation including during COP29 were arrested afterwards in apparent reprisals. Brazil, the host of COP30, is one of the most dangerous countries for EHRDs, who face killings, violence, threats and stigmatization for their work.

    “The voices, views, knowledge and wisdom of Indigenous Peoples, frontline and fence line communities and human rights defenders must be incorporated into climate policies, plans and action,” said Ann Harrison.

    “Once again, we have heard reports of limited badges and visa problems for those from the majority world wishing to attend the conference in Bonn. Nor are the COP Host Country Agreements – a key tool that must be strengthened to ensure freedom of expression and peaceful assembly for participants – available publicly as a matter of routine.”

    Climate finance must be addressed

    Amnesty International is also calling for states to tackle climate finance. Currently, lower-income countries are paying more in debt repayments than they are receiving as climate finance from high-income countries.

    High income historically high emitting countries are most responsible for climate change, yet continue to shirk their obligations to provide climate finance to lower income countries to cut emissions and to help communities to adapt to climate change, as well as providing reparations for loss and damage, which could ease the burden in countries suffering climate harms.

    “Taxing fossil fuel companies, corporate windfall profits and high net worth individuals, as well as ending subsidies and investments in fossil fuels and ending global tax abuses, could raise over USD 3 trillion per year which could go a huge way towards the cost of tackling climate change,” said Ann Harrison.

    Huge changes need to be made

    The Bonn Climate Conference is a key preparatory moment for the annual UN Climate Conference, which takes place as COP30 later this year in Brazil – a country that wants to publicly lead a message of global environmental protection. Yet, internally some of its institutions are taking actions contrary to this agenda, including requiring less stringent licensing for environmentally destructive projects and expanding fossil fuel production.

    “If climate change is to be taken seriously and to keep global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, we need to see concrete progress with clear timelines towards massively scaled-up needs-based climate finance, particularly for adaptation and loss and damage, in the form of grants, not loans, with those most responsible for emissions contributing the most,” said Ann Harrison.

    Amnesty International is calling for states commit to a full, fast, fair and funded fossil fuel phase out through just transitions across all sectors, without relying on risky and unproven technologies or offsets that do not lead to genuine emissions reductions. It is also calling for inclusive discussions around climate change, involving the people most affected by it, and ensuring they can meaningfully access these high-level negotiations without discrimination.

    Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Amnesty International.

    MIL OSI Africa –

  • MIL-OSI Banking: BSTDB Hosts the Heads of Internal Audit Annual Meeting

    Source: Black Sea Trade and Development Bank

    Press Release | 16-Jun-2025

    Internal Audit Leaders Convene in Thessaloniki to Discuss ESG, AI, and Evolving Governance Standards

    The Black Sea Trade and Development Bank (BSTDB) hosted the Annual Meeting of the Heads of Internal Audit (HOIA) on 12–13 June 2025. The two-day event, held under the theme “Empowering Accountability and Resilience,” brought together internal audit leaders from over 40 international financial institutions, United Nations agencies, European bodies, and global alliances.

    Participants addressed a wide range of critical topics shaping the future of the profession—from ESG integration and fraud risk management to artificial intelligence, generative technologies, and internal audit quality standards.

    In his opening statement, BSTDB President Dr. Serhat Köksal underlined that “the role of internal audit is one of the critical functions, given the current challenging international setting, including geopolitical tensions, economic volatility, technological disruption, and urgent climate imperatives.”  He stressed that International Financial Institutions (IFIs) have an increased responsibility to drive in these factors into their governance frameworks because of their wide-reaching impact on communities, the environment, and global development.

    Delivering the keynote,  Anthony J. Pugliese, President and CEO of the Institute of Internal Auditors, emphasized the systemic, fast-evolving and interconnected nature of today’s risk landscape. Emphasis was placed on the expanding role of internal audit- transforming from traditional oversight to providing strategic guidance in enterprise risk management. He highlighted the dual impact of technology as both a disruptive and an enabler and introduced the principles of responsible AI governance. He concluded by outlining key priorities for strengthening the future of the profession, emphasizing culture, synergies and resilience as the foundations for long term sustainability.

    Pavlos Pavlides, Director of Internal Audit at BSTDB and host of the Meeting, stressed the importance of sound governance, vigilance, and integrity in delivering on institutional mandates. He called for strengthening collaboration among internal audit functions across international organisations to increase collective impact, knowledge-sharing, and professional development.

    The Meeting concluded with a shared commitment to advancing the internal audit profession as a cornerstone of good governance, resilience, and institutional excellence.

     

    The Black Sea Trade and Development Bank (BSTDB) is an international financial institution established by Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Greece, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Türkiye, and Ukraine. The BSTDB headquarters are in Thessaloniki, Greece. BSTDB supports economic development and regional cooperation by providing loans, credit lines, equity and guarantees for projects and trade financing in the public and private sectors in its member countries. The authorized capital of the Bank is EUR 3.45 billion. For information on BSTDB, visit www.bstdb.org.

     

    Contact: Haroula Christodoulou

    : @BSTDB

    MIL OSI Global Banks –

  • Britain appoints first female head of MI6 spy agency

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    Britain on Sunday named Blaise Metreweli, a career intelligence officer, as the first female head of the Secret Intelligence Service, the foreign spy service known as MI6.

    Metreweli, 47, who is currently MI6’s head of technology, known as “Q”, joined the Secret Intelligence Service in 1999, and has spent most of her career in operational roles in the Middle East and Europe, the government said in a statement.

    Richard Moore, the current chief of MI6, will step down in the autumn after a five-year tenure.

    “I am proud and honoured to be asked to lead my service,” said Metreweli, who takes on one of the most powerful jobs in Western intelligence and will be known by the code name “C”.

    MI6, founded in 1909, joins the other main British spy agencies, the domestic spy service MI5, and the intelligence communications agency GCHQ, in having appointed a female head.

    Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is currently in Canada for the G7 summit, said Metreweli’s appointment comes when Britain is “facing threats on an unprecedented scale”.

    “I know Blaise will continue to provide the excellent leadership needed to defend our country,” he said.

    Metreweli’s biggest challenges are likely to be dealing with Russia, China and Iran.

    Britain’s spy agencies have accused Russia of waging a campaign of sabotage across Europe to scare other countries off from backing Ukraine in its fight against a Russian invasion.

    Moore in 2021 said China was the single greatest priority for his spy agency, while MI5 said last year that Iran had been behind 20 plots to kill, kidnap or target dissidents or political opponents in Britain since 2022.

    MI6, depicted by novelists as the employer of some of the most memorable fictional spies, from John le Carré’s George Smiley to Ian Fleming’s James Bond, operates overseas and is tasked with defending Britain and its interests.

    Metreweli previously held a director-level role in MI5, and studied anthropology at the University of Cambridge, the government said.

    MI5 has had two female bosses, starting with Stella Rimington in 1992. Eliza Manningham-Buller ran MI5 between 2002 and 2007.

    In 2023, Britain named its first female director of GCHQ.

    Metreweli’s appointment comes three decades after the actress Judi Dench first played a female boss of MI6 in the James Bond film “GoldenEye”.

    (Reuters)

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: PM meeting with Prime Minister Meloni of Italy: 15 June 2025

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Press release

    PM meeting with Prime Minister Meloni of Italy: 15 June 2025

    The Prime Minister met Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the G7 Summit this evening.

    The Prime Minister met Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the G7 Summit this evening. 

    Discussing the situation in the Middle East, the Prime Minister urged restraint and de-escalation. The devastating human toll as well as the potential global economic impact caused by rising global oil prices cannot be underestimated, the leaders agreed. 

    They added that this Summit comes at a vitally important moment for the world, and that G7 partners must find a way forward through diplomacy. 

    They reiterated their enduring support for Ukraine, agreeing that it is a topic of our common security that they looked forward to discussing in the next two days. 

    They had a lengthy discussion on migration, confirming that they would continue working together on innovative solutions to break the criminal model of irregular migration. 

    The Prime Minister raised the UK’s world-leading work on people smuggling sanctions, adding that he looked forward to working with other European countries on this approach.

    Updates to this page

    Published 16 June 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Meeting with the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, Friedrich Merz

    Source: Government of Italy (English)

    15 Giugno 2025

    The President of the Council of Ministers, Giorgia Meloni, met with the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, Friedrich Merz, today, on the eve of the G7 Summit in Kananaskis.

    Coming shortly after their recent talks at Palazzo Chigi, today’s meeting provided an opportunity to confirm the shared will to hold a new edition of the Italy-Germany intergovernmental summit in Rome at the beginning of 2026 and to maintain close coordination on the main issues on the EU agenda, such as the fight against irregular migration and competitiveness.

    Lastly, the meeting also allowed for an exchange of views on the most recent developments in the Middle East and on the war in Ukraine, in the context of transatlantic relations and in view of the upcoming NATO Summit in The Hague.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Meeting with the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer

    Source: Government of Italy (English)

    The President of the Council of Ministers, Giorgia Meloni, met with the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, today, on the eve of the G7 Summit in Kananaskis.

    The meeting provided an opportunity for an in-depth discussion on the most pressing issues on the international agenda, starting with the situation in the Middle East and the conflict in Ukraine.
    During the meeting, close coordination also continued regarding both the G7 agenda and in view of the NATO Summit in The Hague, with a full convergence of views being noted.

    Lastly, the two leaders reviewed the main areas of bilateral collaboration, especially in the fields of energy, investment promotion, and security and defence, with particular reference to the strategic Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), as well as the increasingly fruitful cooperation in combating irregular migration and fighting human trafficking.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Netanyahu has two war aims: destroying Iran’s nuclear program and regime change. Are either achievable?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Middle East Studies, Australian National University

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could last for at least two weeks.

    His timing seems precise for a reason. The Israel Defence Forces and the country’s intelligence agencies have clearly devised a methodical, step-by-step campaign.

    Israeli forces initially focused on decapitating the Iranian military and scientific leadership and, just as importantly, destroying virtually all of Iran’s air defences.

    Israeli aircraft can not only operate freely over Iranian air space now, they can refuel and deposit more special forces at key sites to enable precision bombing of targets and attacks on hidden or well-protected nuclear facilities.

    In public statements since the start of the campaign, Netanyahu has highlighted two key aims: to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, and to encourage the Iranian people to overthrow the clerical regime.

    With those two objectives in mind, how might the conflict end? Several broad scenarios are possible.

    A return to negotiations

    US President Donald Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, was to have attended a sixth round of talks with his Iranian counterparts on Sunday aimed at a deal to replace the Iran nuclear agreement negotiated under the Obama administration in 2015. Trump withdrew from that agreement during his first term in 2018, despite Iran’s apparent compliance to that point.

    Netanyahu was opposed to the 2015 agreement and has indicated he does not believe Iran is serious about a replacement.

    So, accepting negotiations as an outcome of the Israeli bombing campaign would be a massive climbdown by Netanyahu. He wants to use the defanging of Iran to reestablish his security credentials after the Hamas attacks of October 2023.

    Even though Trump continues to press Iran to accept a deal, negotiations are off the table for now. Trump won’t be able to persuade Netanyahu to stop the bombing campaign to restart negotiations.

    Complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear program

    Destruction of Iran’s nuclear program would involve destroying all known sites, including the Fordow uranium enrichment facility, about 100 kilometres south of Tehran.

    According to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi, the facility is located about half a mile underground, beneath a mountain. It is probably beyond the reach of even the US’ 2,000-pound deep penetration bombs.

    The entrances and ventilation shafts of the facility could be closed by causing landslides. But that would be a temporary solution.

    Taking out Fordow entirely would require an Israeli special forces attack. This is certainly possible, given Israel’s success in getting operatives into Iran to date. But questions would remain about how extensively the facility could be damaged and then how quickly it could be rebuilt.

    And destruction of Iran’s nuclear centrifuges – used to enrich uranium to create a bomb – would be only one step in dismantling its program.

    Israel would also have to secure or eliminate Iran’s stock of uranium already enriched to 60% purity. This is sufficient for up to ten nuclear bombs if enriched to the weapons-grade 90% purity.

    But does Israeli intelligence know where that stock is?

    Collapse of the Iranian regime

    Collapse of the Iranian regime is certainly possible, particularly given Israel’s removal of Iran’s most senior military leaders since its attacks began on Friday, including the heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian armed forces.

    And anti-regime demonstrations over the years, most recently the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests after the death in police custody of a young Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, in 2022, have shown how unpopular the regime is.

    That said, the regime has survived many challenges since coming to power in 1979, including war with Iraq in the 1980s and massive sanctions. It has developed remarkably efficient security systems that have enabled it to remain in place.

    Another uncertainty at this stage is whether Israeli attacks on civilian targets might engender a “rally round the flag” movement among Iranians.

    Netanyahu said in recent days that Israel had indications the remaining senior regime figures were packing their bags in preparation for fleeing the country. But he gave no evidence.

    A major party joins the fight

    Could the US become involved in the fighting?

    This can’t be ruled out. Iran’s UN ambassador directly accused the US of assisting Israel with its strikes.

    That is almost certainly true, given the close intelligence sharing between the US and Israel. Moreover, senior Republicans, such as Senator Lindsey Graham, have called on Trump to order US forces to help Israel “finish the job”.

    Trump would probably be loath to do this, particularly given his criticism of the “forever wars” of previous US administrations. But if Iran or pro-Iranian forces were to strike a US base or military asset in the region, pressure would mount on Trump to retaliate.

    Another factor is that Trump probably wants the war to end as quickly as possible. His administration will be aware the longer a conflict drags on, the more likely unforeseen factors will arise.

    Could Russia become involved on Iran’s side? At this stage that’s probably unlikely. Russia did not intervene in Syria late last year to try to protect the collapsing Assad regime. And Russia has plenty on its plate with the war in Ukraine.

    Russia criticised the Israeli attack when it started, but appears not to have taken any action to help Iran defend itself.

    And could regional powers such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates become involved?

    Though they have a substantial arsenal of US military equipment, the two countries have no interest in becoming caught up in the conflict. The Gulf Arab monarchies have engaged in a rapprochement with Iran in recent years after decades of outright hostility. Nobody would want to put this at risk.

    Uncertainties predominate

    We don’t know the extent of Iran’s arsenal of missiles and rockets. In its initial retaliation to Israel’s strikes, Iran has been able to partially overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system, causing civilian casualties.

    If it can continue to do this, causing more civilian casualties, Israelis already unhappy with Netanyahu over the Gaza war might start to question his wisdom in starting another conflict.

    But we are nowhere near that point. Though it’s too early for reliable opinion polling, most Israelis almost certainly applaud Netanyahu’s action so far to cripple Iran’s nuclear program. In addition, Netanyahu has threatened to make Tehran “burn” if Iran deliberately targets Israeli civilians.

    We can be confident that Iran does not have any surprises in store. Israel has severely weakened its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas. They are clearly in no position to assist Iran through diversionary attacks.

    The big question will be what comes after the war. Iran will almost certainly withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and forbid more inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

    Israel will probably be able to destroy Iran’s existing nuclear facilities, but it’s only a question of when – not if – Iran will reconstitute them.

    This means the likelihood of Iran trying to secure a nuclear bomb in order to deter future Israeli attacks will be much higher. And the region will remain in a precarious place.

    Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Netanyahu has two war aims: destroying Iran’s nuclear program and regime change. Are either achievable? – https://theconversation.com/netanyahu-has-two-war-aims-destroying-irans-nuclear-program-and-regime-change-are-either-achievable-259014

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Peace Action Wellington – Israel’s pre-emptive war illegal, unjustified

    Source: Peace Action Wellington

    14 June 2025 – Israel’s unprovoked and extensive bombing of Iran yesterday is illegal under international law. There is no allowable claim of self-defence for a pre-emptive attack; such a claim would validate Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, and the US’s attack on Iraq in 2003. 

    “The New Zealand Government needs to be unequivocal in its condemnation of Israel now,” said Valerie Morse, member of Peace Action Wellington.

    “The bombing of Iran has no justification. The Israeli state appears to consider itself beyond reproach in its conduct: in the past six months, it has bombed Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran all while it conducts the most vile genocide against Palestinians in Gaza and daily attacks against civilians in the occupied West Bank.” 

    “No one believes Israel’s lies anymore. Time after time, Israel’s claims have been shown to be completely fabricated. We didn’t buy US President George W. Bush’s claims about Iraq having ‘weapons of mass destruction’ in 2003 that precipitated the US invasion and murder of 1 million Iraqi people; and we are not about to buy Netanyahu’s claims about an ‘existential threat’ now. ”

    “No one is buying Israel’s false victimhood either: it possesses nuclear weapons and continues to be the largest recipient of US aid and weapons. Netanyahu has spent all of Israel’s political capital with his craven determination to remain in power. The international consensus that has funded and facilitated the ongoing occupation of Palestinian lands is crumbling. Now he is trying to drag the entire world into war. He will be the last Israeli prime minister because he will destroy the Israeli state with his self-serving violence and war-making.”

    “Aggressive war cannot be tolerated. Genocide cannot be tolerated. New Zealanders want our government to take concrete actions: expel the Israeli Ambassador, sanction the Israeli state and recognise Palestine.”

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Russia has handed over another 1,200 bodies of dead servicemen to Ukraine – Russian media

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Moscow, June 15 (Xinhua) — Russia on Sunday handed over another 1,200 bodies of fallen servicemen to Ukraine in accordance with the agreements reached by the parties in Istanbul in early June, Russian media reported, citing a source in the Russian negotiating team.

    As the source specified, on June 11, Russia handed over 1,212 bodies of dead soldiers to Ukraine, on June 13, 1,200 bodies, and on June 14, another 1,200 bodies.

    “The Russian side continues to implement the Istanbul agreements,” the media report states. –0–

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Joint statement between the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and the Prime Minister of Canada

    Source: United Kingdom – Government Statements

    Press release

    Joint statement between the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and the Prime Minister of Canada

    This Joint Statement follows the meeting of the Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom and Canada on 15 June 2025.

    Today, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (UK) and Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada met in Ottawa to reaffirm the profound friendship and shared values that unite both nations. The Canada-UK partnership, rooted in a common history and enduring people-to-people ties, continues to grow stronger, with a focus on delivering prosperity and security for the working people of Canada and the UK alike.

    The two leaders discussed the many geopolitical challenges currently facing the world, including in the Middle East and tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, and reaffirmed their steadfast support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s illegal and unjustifiable war of aggression.

    The two leaders underscored the importance of a fair, open and predictable global trading system; reiterated their commitment to a rules-based international order underpinned by respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity; and committed to advancing peace and trans-Atlantic security. They agreed the following joint initiatives aimed at strengthening economic growth and prosperity and enhancing collective security and defence:

    Growth and Innovation Partnership

    Canada and the UK are committed to delivering economic growth for their people. The two Prime Ministers today announced further collaboration on trade, science, technology and innovation. Through their Partnership, Canada and the UK will work together to:

    • Trade: Strengthen trade ties as trusted, reliable partners. This will include expanding trade under the Canada-UK Trade Continuity Agreement. We will establish a new structured UK-Canada Economic and Trade Working Group to deepen our existing trading relationship further, including to address existing market access barriers, to expand existing arrangements into new areas, such as digital trade, and to explore cooperation in the development of critical minerals and sovereign artificial intelligence infrastructure. The working group will report back to both Prime Ministers within six months. Canada will seek to introduce legislation this autumn to ratify the UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership.

    • Semiconductors: Deliver industrial R&D projects to enhance both nations’ complementary strengths in semiconductors, photonics, emerging materials and chip design. They will deepen connections between the innovation rich semiconductor ecosystems in Canada and the UK to help build resilient supply chains and accelerate breakthroughs in this key sector that is driving economic growth.

    • Quantum: Announce a joint commitment to develop secure, transatlantic communications based on quantum technologies, allowing us to connect our national systems and lay the groundwork to create a truly global, next-generation network, with applications across our financial and telecoms sectors.

    • Digital: Mutually reinforce nation-building digital public infrastructure by co-developing policy levers and standards, and common technology components.

    • Artificial Intelligence: Deepen and explore new collaborations on frontier AI systems to support our national security. This will include a partnership agreement to strengthen existing collaboration on AI safety and security between the Canadian AI Safety Institute and UK AI Security Institute, and new Canadian and UK MOUs with leading Canadian AI firm Cohere. Under the Canadian MOU, Cohere will collaborate with the Canadian AI Safety Institute and develop their commitment to building cutting-edge data centres in Canada. Under the UK MOU, Cohere will expand their UK presence to support the delivery of the UK AI Opportunities Action Plan. Both MOUs reflect ongoing collaboration on the application of AI tools in security and intelligence and are rooted in Cohere’s strong foundations in Canada and ongoing commitment to the UK.

    • Biomanufacturing: Strengthen collaboration to deliver economic growth and be better prepared for future health emergencies, including a joint investment of $14.8 million to support joint biomanufacturing research and development that will grow the talent and skills pipeline in both countries, and to help businesses scale.

    • Civil Nuclear: Develop a world-leading fusion energy collaboration and deepen cooperation on nuclear energy from fission to reduce the influence of Russia on our international fuel supply chains.

    • Critical Minerals: Intensify bilateral cooperation by conducting a strategic mapping exercise to pinpoint key critical minerals, infrastructure, production and processing capacities. They will identify projects for joint investment to support secure and sustainable critical minerals supply chain development and  leverage all available financial tools to mobilize funding and drive production to strengthen our manufacturing and mining sectors.

    Enhanced Defence and Security Partnership

    The two leaders agreed to strengthen cooperation – both bilaterally and through the NATO Alliance and Five Eyes partnership – to safeguard democratic values advance global stability and ensure the safety of our people in an increasingly complex world. To achieve this, they committed to:

    • Ukraine: Further support Ukraine in its self-defence against Russia’s war of aggression. This will include continued support for the Coalition of the Willing and respective efforts to support Ukraine’s domestic defence industrial production. The UK and Canada will continue to work together to support the Air Force Capability Coalition and develop cutting edge aircraft weaponry technology in support of Ukraine.

    • Military Cooperation: Position the Canada-UK defence relationship for further growth across military operations, industrial collaboration, and defence innovation, catalyzed by Canada’s newly announced defence investment trajectory and the UK’s Strategic Defence Review. Canada and the UK will work towards a new permanent arrangement for the long-term and sustainable use of British Army Training Unit Suffield (BATUS) through the “BATUS Future Project”. The Project will deepen the Canada-UK relationship on defence and showcase CFB Suffield as a multi-purpose facility for the development and testing of new equipment and cutting-edge technology which are vital to maintaining our shared security and prosperity.

    • Intelligence: Build on the long history of deep and productive collaboration between our security and intelligence organizations by launching coordinated operational campaigns to combat terrorism and violent extremism, and deepening collaboration on enhanced intelligence collection, including by expanding officer exchange programs.

    • National Security: Tackle evolving state threats together, including sabotage, transnational repression, foreign interference, malicious cyber activity, information manipulation and economic coercion, all of which seeks to undermine our national security and that of our Allies and partners. This will include joint work to invest in civil society organizations actively working to counter digital transnational repression through the Joint Canada-UK Common Good Cyber Fund, a first-of-its-kind multilateral fund aimed at supporting civil society actors at high risk. To kickstart this fund, Canada and the UK are providing $5.7 million in seed funding to the Fund, which will be disbursed over 5 years. They also agreed to strengthen bilateral development and delivery of secure communications products and cutting-edge cryptography and explore new research partnerships to address gaps in AI security and evolve AI models to support national security.

    • Border Security: Strengthen bilateral cooperation to tackle transnational organized criminal organizations engaged in the illicit movement of goods and narcotics, and bolster our response to combat irregular migration, migrant smuggling and human trafficking, including through deeper bilateral information and knowledge exchange.

    Updates to this page

    Published 15 June 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: PM meeting with Prime Minister Carney of Canada: 15 June 2025

    Source: United Kingdom – Government Statements

    Press release

    PM meeting with Prime Minister Carney of Canada: 15 June 2025

    The Prime Minister met the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Ottawa this afternoon.

    The Prime Minister met the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Ottawa this afternoon.

    They began by discussing the grave situation in the Middle East, agreeing that the upcoming G7 Summit presented an opportunity to come together with partners in pursuit of de-escalation. 

    Turning to the UK-Canada relationship – they had a warm and productive conversation, agreeing that as two like-minded leaders there is huge potential to drive forward our partnership for the benefit of British and Canadian people. 

    Prime Minister Carney confirmed that Canada would ratify the UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), seeking to introduce legislation to their parliament in the autumn. This will bring huge benefits to UK businesses by lowering tariffs when buying from and selling to Canada. 

    They also agreed to set up a joint taskforce to turbocharge progress on other areas of mutual benefit, including technology and artificial intelligence – in support of shared growth and our national security. The taskforce will also look to make progress on the wider UK-Canada Free Trade Agreement. 

    The Prime Minister said that the world has changed when it comes to trade and the economy, so he wants teams to go as far and as fast as possible, because it is in all of our interests to lower trade barriers with our closest partners.

    Moving on to defence and security, the leaders agreed that there is no doubt that everyone needs to step up at such a volatile time for the world. The Prime Minister reiterated that all NATO allies must come together to advance our collective security in the coming years. 

    They ended on their enduring support for Ukraine, and Prime Minister Carney thanked the Prime Minister for his invaluable leadership on the Coalition of the Willing. 

    They looked forward to discussing this further at the G7 Summit in the coming days.

    Updates to this page

    Published 15 June 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Joint Statement by Prime Minister Carney and Prime Minister Starmer

    Source: Government of Canada – Prime Minister

    Today, Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, and Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (UK), met in Ottawa to reaffirm the profound friendship and shared values that unite both nations. The Canada-UK partnership, rooted in a common history and enduring people-to-people ties, continues to grow stronger, with a focus on delivering prosperity and security for the working people of Canada and the UK alike.

    The two leaders discussed the many geopolitical challenges currently facing the world, including in the Middle East and tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, and reaffirmed their steadfast support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s illegal and unjustifiable war of aggression.

    The two leaders underscored the importance of a fair, open and predictable global trading system; reiterated their commitment to a rules-based international order underpinned by respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity; and committed to advancing peace and trans-Atlantic security. They agreed the following joint initiatives aimed at strengthening economic growth and prosperity and enhancing collective security and defence:

    Growth and Innovation Partnership

    Canada and the UK are committed to delivering economic growth for their people. The two Prime Ministers today announced further collaboration on trade, science, technology and innovation. Through their Partnership, Canada and the UK will work together to:

    • Trade: Strengthen trade ties as trusted, reliable partners. This will include expanding trade under the Canada-UK Trade Continuity Agreement. We will establish a new structured UK-Canada Economic and Trade Working Group to deepen our existing trading relationship further, including to address existing market access barriers, to expand existing arrangements into new areas, such as digital trade, and to explore cooperation in the development of critical minerals and sovereign artificial intelligence infrastructure. The working group will report back to both Prime Ministers within six months. Canada will seek to introduce legislation this autumn to ratify the UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership.
    • Semiconductors: Deliver industrial R&D projects to enhance both nations’ complementary strengths in semiconductors, photonics, emerging materials and chip design. They will deepen connections between the innovation rich semiconductor ecosystems in Canada and the UK to help build resilient supply chains and accelerate breakthroughs in this key sector that is driving economic growth.
    • Quantum: Announce a joint commitment to develop secure, transatlantic communications based on quantum technologies, allowing us to connect our national systems and lay the groundwork to create a truly global, next-generation network, with applications across our financial and telecoms sectors.
    • Digital: Mutually reinforce nation-building digital public infrastructure by co-developing policy levers and standards, and common technology components.
    • Artificial Intelligence: Deepen and explore new collaborations on frontier AI systems to support our national security. This will include a partnership agreement to strengthen existing collaboration on AI safety and security between the Canadian AI Safety Institute and UK AI Security Institute, and new Canadian and UK MOUs with leading Canadian AI firm Cohere. Under the Canadian MOU, Cohere will collaborate with the Canadian AI Safety Institute and develop their commitment to building cutting-edge data centres in Canada. Under the UK MOU, Cohere will expand their UK presence to support the delivery of the UK AI Opportunities Action Plan. Both MOUs reflect ongoing collaboration on the application of AI tools in security and intelligence and are rooted in Cohere’s strong foundations in Canada and ongoing commitment to the UK.
    • Biomanufacturing: Strengthen collaboration to deliver economic growth and be better prepared for future health emergencies, including a joint investment of $14.8 million to support joint biomanufacturing research and development that will grow the talent and skills pipeline in both countries, and to help businesses scale.
    • Civil Nuclear: Develop a world-leading fusion energy collaboration and deepen cooperation on nuclear energy from fission to reduce the influence of Russia on our international fuel supply chains.
    • Critical Minerals: Intensify bilateral cooperation by conducting a strategic mapping exercise to pinpoint key critical minerals, infrastructure, production and processing capacities. They will identify projects for joint investment to support secure and sustainable critical minerals supply chain development and  leverage all available financial tools to mobilize funding and drive production to strengthen our manufacturing and mining sectors.

    Enhanced Defence and Security Partnership

    The two leaders agreed to strengthen cooperation – both bilaterally and through the NATO Alliance and Five Eyes partnership – to safeguard democratic values advance global stability and ensure the safety of our people in an increasingly complex world. To achieve this, they committed to:

    • Ukraine: Further support Ukraine in its self-defence against Russia’s war of aggression. This will include continued support for the Coalition of the Willing and respective efforts to support Ukraine’s domestic defence industrial production. The UK and Canada will continue to work together to support the Air Force Capability Coalition and develop cutting edge aircraft weaponry technology in support of Ukraine.
    • Military Cooperation: Position the Canada-UK defence relationship for further growth across military operations, industrial collaboration, and defence innovation, catalyzed by Canada’s newly announced defence investment trajectory and the UK’s Strategic Defence Review. Canada and the UK will work towards a new permanent arrangement for the long-term and sustainable use of British Army Training Unit Suffield (BATUS) through the “BATUS Future Project”. The Project will deepen the Canada-UK relationship on defence and showcase CFB Suffield as a multi-purpose facility for the development and testing of new equipment and cutting-edge technology which are vital to maintaining our shared security and prosperity.
    • Intelligence: Build on the long history of deep and productive collaboration between our security and intelligence organizations by launching coordinated operational campaigns to combat terrorism and violent extremism, and deepening collaboration on enhanced intelligence collection, including by expanding officer exchange programs.
    • National Security: Tackle evolving state threats together, including sabotage, transnational repression, foreign interference, malicious cyber activity, information manipulation and economic coercion, all of which seeks to undermine our national security and that of our Allies and partners. This will include joint work to invest in civil society organizations actively working to counter digital transnational repression through the Joint Canada-UK Common Good Cyber Fund, a first-of-its-kind multilateral fund aimed at supporting civil society actors at high risk. To kickstart this fund, Canada and the UK are providing $5.7 million in seed funding to the Fund, which will be disbursed over 5 years. They also agreed to strengthen bilateral development and delivery of secure communications products and cutting-edge cryptography and explore new research partnerships to address gaps in AI security and evolve AI models to support national security.
    • Border Security: Strengthen bilateral cooperation to tackle transnational organized criminal organizations engaged in the illicit movement of goods and narcotics, and bolster our response to combat irregular migration, migrant smuggling and human trafficking, including through deeper bilateral information and knowledge exchange.

    MIL OSI Canada News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canadian international relations experts share their views on global politics and Canada’s role

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Anessa L. Kimball, Professor of Political Science; Director, Centre for International Security, ESEI, Université Laval

    A survey of Canadian international relations professors has found they disagree on how to respond to potential Chinese aggression against Taiwan and which global regions will matter most to Canada in the future.

    For the past 20 years, the Teaching, Research and International Policy (TRIP) survey has asked university professors about how they teach international relations and what they think about global affairs. Originally based in the United States, the survey expanded to Canada in 2006 and is now conducted regularly in many countries.

    The Canadian faculty survey was conducted from March 5 to July 12, 2024. Of the 109 who participated, most held permanent academic positions, including 22 full professors, 31 associate professors and six emeritus professors.

    Participants were asked to agree or disagree with statements about global politics. Seventy-five experts agreed that states are the main players in global politics, but there was less agreement on the importance of domestic politics.

    Most felt that international institutions help bring order to the chaotic global system. However, whether globalization has made people better off — even if there are some losers — divided experts, with 21 believing no one is better off due to globalization while two-thirds believed the opposite.

    Major themes

    When it came to more critical or less mainstream ideas — such as whether major international relations theories are rooted in racist assumptions — opinions were split.

    More than 50 agreed, but more than a third disagreed, and many gave neutral responses. Disagreement over the role of racism in shaping world politics highlights the difficulty of decolonizing international relations and incorporating post-colonial perspectives — particularly when trying to understand complex “failed cases” like United Nations peacekeeping efforts in Haiti.



    Read more:
    For Haitian migrants in the Dominican Republic, ‘reproduction is like a death sentence’

    Professors were also asked where they get their international news. Most rely on major newspapers, international media and internet sources.

    When asked which world region is strategically most important for Canada today, nearly half — or 43 of 97 experts opting to respond to the question — chose North America (excluding Mexico); in other words, the United States. Sixteen selected the Arctic and another 16 chose East Asia.

    Very few picked regions like the Middle East, Europe or Russia. Looking ahead 20 years, 10 experts shifted their answer from North America to the Arctic.

    Views on China and Taiwan, and Justin Trudeau

    Experts were asked what Canada should do if China attacks Taiwan. Most supported non-military responses: 72 supported sanctions and 69 supported taking in refugees.

    About half supported sending weapons or banning Chinese goods. Fewer supported cyberattacks (18), sending troops (15) or a no-fly zone (14).

    Surprisingly, six said Canada should launch military action against China.

    Justin Trudeau was prime minister when the survey was conducted. When asked about his performance, 50 per cent rated him poorly or very poorly, 30 per cent were neutral and only a small minority rated him positively.

    Key takeaways

    Canadian international relations professors don’t always agree, but a few trends stand out.

    Despite recent government focus on the Arctic in terms of its Our North, Strong and Free policy, many professors still view the U.S. as Canada’s most important strategic region. East Asia drew some attention, but few see it growing in importance.

    With a new government under Prime Minister Mark Carney, there may be opportunities to improve on areas where Trudeau was seen as weak by respondents to the survey.

    For example, despite having developed a strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, vital Canadian trade and maritime security interests were minimized by the previous Liberal government. Carney could therefore contemplate expanding Canada’s maritime assets, improving its artificial intelligence and cybersecurity capacity and investing in digital infrastructure and quantum computing.



    Read more:
    Defence policy update focuses on quantum technology’s role in making Canada safe

    Carney had pledged to fulfil Canada’s commitment to NATO’s target of two per cent of GDP spent on defence, saying Canada will meet the threshold by the end of 2025.

    However, Canada will still lag behind. NATO is calling on allies to invest five per cent of GDP in defence, comprising 3.5 per cent on core defence spending as well as 1.5 per cent of GDP per year on defence and security-related investment, including in infrastructure and resilience.

    Canada’s 2024 GDP was $2.515 trillion, which means a five per cent defence investment of nearly $125 billion annually would have accounted for more than a quarter of a federal budget (which was under $450 billion in 2024-2025).

    Canada, a founding NATO member, leads a multinational brigade in Latvia and supports Ukraine in other ways.

    Ukraine seems on an irreversible path towards NATO membership. Though 69 per cent of respondents supported NATO membership for Ukraine, only 44 per cent felt it was likely. Though the U.S. tariff crisis attracts attention, some experts are increasingly looking to the Arctic to understand Canada’s strategic interests — a trend sure to be reflected in future surveys of Canadian international relations experts.

    Anessa L. Kimball does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canadian international relations experts share their views on global politics and Canada’s role – https://theconversation.com/canadian-international-relations-experts-share-their-views-on-global-politics-and-canadas-role-257949

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Netanyahu has two war aims: destroying Iran’s nuclear program and regime change. Are either achievable?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Middle East Studies, Australian National University

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could last for at least two weeks.

    His timing seems precise for a reason. The Israel Defence Forces and the country’s intelligence agencies have clearly devised a methodical, step-by-step campaign.

    Israeli forces initially focused on decapitating the Iranian military and scientific leadership and, just as importantly, destroying virtually all of Iran’s air defences.

    Israeli aircraft can not only operate freely over Iranian air space now, they can refuel and deposit more special forces at key sites to enable precision bombing of targets and attacks on hidden or well-protected nuclear facilities.

    In public statements since the start of the campaign, Netanyahu has highlighted two key aims: to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, and to encourage the Iranian people to overthrow the clerical regime.

    With those two objectives in mind, how might the conflict end? Several broad scenarios are possible.

    A return to negotiations

    US President Donald Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, was to have attended a sixth round of talks with his Iranian counterparts on Sunday aimed at a deal to replace the Iran nuclear agreement negotiated under the Obama administration in 2015. Trump withdrew from that agreement during his first term in 2018, despite Iran’s apparent compliance to that point.

    Netanyahu was opposed to the 2015 agreement and has indicated he does not believe Iran is serious about a replacement.

    So, accepting negotiations as an outcome of the Israeli bombing campaign would be a massive climbdown by Netanyahu. He wants to use the defanging of Iran to reestablish his security credentials after the Hamas attacks of October 2023.

    Even though Trump continues to press Iran to accept a deal, negotiations are off the table for now. Trump won’t be able to persuade Netanyahu to stop the bombing campaign to restart negotiations.

    Complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear program

    Destruction of Iran’s nuclear program would involve destroying all known sites, including the Fordow uranium enrichment facility, about 100 kilometres south of Tehran.

    According to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi, the facility is located about half a mile underground, beneath a mountain. It is probably beyond the reach of even the US’ 2,000-pound deep penetration bombs.

    The entrances and ventilation shafts of the facility could be closed by causing landslides. But that would be a temporary solution.

    Taking out Fordow entirely would require an Israeli special forces attack. This is certainly possible, given Israel’s success in getting operatives into Iran to date. But questions would remain about how extensively the facility could be damaged and then how quickly it could be rebuilt.

    And destruction of Iran’s nuclear centrifuges – used to enrich uranium to create a bomb – would be only one step in dismantling its program.

    Israel would also have to secure or eliminate Iran’s stock of uranium already enriched to 60% purity. This is sufficient for up to ten nuclear bombs if enriched to the weapons-grade 90% purity.

    But does Israeli intelligence know where that stock is?

    Collapse of the Iranian regime

    Collapse of the Iranian regime is certainly possible, particularly given Israel’s removal of Iran’s most senior military leaders since its attacks began on Friday, including the heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian armed forces.

    And anti-regime demonstrations over the years, most recently the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests after the death in police custody of a young Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, in 2022, have shown how unpopular the regime is.

    That said, the regime has survived many challenges since coming to power in 1979, including war with Iraq in the 1980s and massive sanctions. It has developed remarkably efficient security systems that have enabled it to remain in place.

    Another uncertainty at this stage is whether Israeli attacks on civilian targets might engender a “rally round the flag” movement among Iranians.

    Netanyahu said in recent days that Israel had indications the remaining senior regime figures were packing their bags in preparation for fleeing the country. But he gave no evidence.

    A major party joins the fight

    Could the US become involved in the fighting?

    This can’t be ruled out. Iran’s UN ambassador directly accused the US of assisting Israel with its strikes.

    That is almost certainly true, given the close intelligence sharing between the US and Israel. Moreover, senior Republicans, such as Senator Lindsey Graham, have called on Trump to order US forces to help Israel “finish the job”.

    Trump would probably be loath to do this, particularly given his criticism of the “forever wars” of previous US administrations. But if Iran or pro-Iranian forces were to strike a US base or military asset in the region, pressure would mount on Trump to retaliate.

    Another factor is that Trump probably wants the war to end as quickly as possible. His administration will be aware the longer a conflict drags on, the more likely unforeseen factors will arise.

    Could Russia become involved on Iran’s side? At this stage that’s probably unlikely. Russia did not intervene in Syria late last year to try to protect the collapsing Assad regime. And Russia has plenty on its plate with the war in Ukraine.

    Russia criticised the Israeli attack when it started, but appears not to have taken any action to help Iran defend itself.

    And could regional powers such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates become involved?

    Though they have a substantial arsenal of US military equipment, the two countries have no interest in becoming caught up in the conflict. The Gulf Arab monarchies have engaged in a rapprochement with Iran in recent years after decades of outright hostility. Nobody would want to put this at risk.

    Uncertainties predominate

    We don’t know the extent of Iran’s arsenal of missiles and rockets. In its initial retaliation to Israel’s strikes, Iran has been able to partially overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system, causing civilian casualties.

    If it can continue to do this, causing more civilian casualties, Israelis already unhappy with Netanyahu over the Gaza war might start to question his wisdom in starting another conflict.

    But we are nowhere near that point. Though it’s too early for reliable opinion polling, most Israelis almost certainly applaud Netanyahu’s action so far to cripple Iran’s nuclear program. In addition, Netanyahu has threatened to make Tehran “burn” if Iran deliberately targets Israeli civilians.

    We can be confident that Iran does not have any surprises in store. Israel has severely weakened its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas. They are clearly in no position to assist Iran through diversionary attacks.

    The big question will be what comes after the war. Iran will almost certainly withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and forbid more inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

    Israel will probably be able to destroy Iran’s existing nuclear facilities, but it’s only a question of when – not if – Iran will reconstitute them.

    This means the likelihood of Iran trying to secure a nuclear bomb in order to deter future Israeli attacks will be much higher. And the region will remain in a precarious place.

    Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Netanyahu has two war aims: destroying Iran’s nuclear program and regime change. Are either achievable? – https://theconversation.com/netanyahu-has-two-war-aims-destroying-irans-nuclear-program-and-regime-change-are-either-achievable-259014

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Russian President discusses escalating tensions in Middle East during phone call with US President

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Moscow, June 15 /Xinhua/ — Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the escalation of tensions in the Middle East during a telephone conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said. The information was released by the Russian president’s press service on the same day.

    “The conversation between the Russian President and the US President lasted 50 minutes. The exchange of opinions focused on the dangerous escalation of the situation in the Middle East. V. Putin, having condemned Israel’s military operation against Iran, expressed serious concern about the possible escalation of the conflict, which would have unpredictable consequences for the entire situation in the region,” noted Yu. Ushakov.

    According to him, V. Putin informed his American colleague about the telephone contacts he had with the Prime Minister of Israel and the President of Iran. The importance of preventing the escalation of the conflict and the readiness of the Russian side to carry out possible mediation efforts were emphasized.

    “Russia’s fundamental approach and interest in the settlement remain unchanged. And, as V. Putin noted, we will continue to act based on this. D. Trump, for his part, also assessed the situation as very alarming, although he acknowledged the effectiveness of Israel’s strikes on targets in Iran. But it is characteristic that the Russian and American presidents, despite such a complicated situation, do not rule out a return to the negotiating track on the Iranian nuclear program,” emphasized Y. Ushakov.

    He also reported that, as D. Trump noted, the team of American negotiators is ready to resume work with Iranian representatives.

    “In addition, during the conversation, V. Putin informed D. Trump about the implementation of the agreements reached at the meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul on June 2. V. Putin noted that these days, an exchange of prisoners of war is taking place, including seriously wounded, and prisoners of war under 25 years of age. Ukraine also accepted two batches of bodies of the dead. The Russian side expressed its readiness to continue negotiations with the Ukrainians, as agreed, after June 22. D. Trump took note of this information and once again noted his interest in the speedy end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict,” Y. Ushakov summarized. –0–

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: US and Russian Presidents Agree That “War Between Israel and Iran Must End”

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    WASHINGTON, June 14 (Xinhua) — U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday held a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The two sides agreed that “this war between Israel and Iran must end,” Trump said on social media.

    “He believes, as do I, that this war between Israel and Iran must end,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social page, adding that Putin “knows Iran very well.”

    D. Trump said that during the hour-long conversation he also explained to the Russian president that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict “must end too.”

    “We talked at length. Much less time was spent on the situation between Russia and Ukraine. We’ll talk about that next week,” D. Trump said. “He /Vladimir Putin/ is conducting the planned prisoner exchanges – a large number of prisoners are being exchanged on both sides at once.”

    On Saturday, D. Trump celebrated his 79th birthday. According to him, during a telephone conversation, V. Putin congratulated him on his birthday. –0–

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Trump says he, Putin agree ‘war in Israel-Iran should end’

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    U.S. President Donald Trump said he had a phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Saturday over the tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and both of them agreed that “this war in Israel-Iran should end.”

    “He feels, as do I, this war in Israel-Iran should end,” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social, adding that Putin knows Iran “very well.”

    Trump said he also explained to the Russian president that the Russia-Ukraine conflict “should also end” during the one-hour call.

    “We talked at length. Much less time was spent talking about Russia/Ukraine, but that will be for next week,” said Trump. “He (Putin) is doing the planned prisoner swaps — large numbers of prisoners are being exchanged, immediately, from both sides.”

    Saturday was Trump’s 79th birthday. Trump said that Putin wished him a happy birthday during the phone call. 

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Russia Returns Fourth Group of Prisoners of War to Ukraine

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Moscow, June 14 /Xinhua/ – Russia has returned another group of servicemen from the territory of Ukraine. In exchange, prisoners of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) were transferred. The corresponding information was published by the press service of the Russian Defense Ministry.

    “On June 14, in accordance with the Russian-Ukrainian agreements reached on June 2 in Istanbul, another group of Russian servicemen was returned from the territory controlled by Kyiv. In exchange, a group of Ukrainian Armed Forces prisoners of war was transferred,” the Russian military department reported.

    The Russian Defense Ministry also noted that Russian servicemen are on the territory of Belarus, where they are receiving the necessary medical and psychological assistance. All of them will be transported to Russia for treatment and rehabilitation in the medical institutions of the Defense Ministry.

    In addition, as TASS reported on Saturday, Russia handed over 1,200 bodies of fallen Ukrainian soldiers to Ukraine as part of the Istanbul agreements. At the same time, Kyiv did not hand over a single body to Moscow. –0–

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Ukraine, Russia conduct 2nd phase of prisoner swap

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Ukraine and Russia on Thursday carried out the second phase of a prisoner exchange involving seriously ill and severely wounded captives, according to Ukrainian authorities.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Telegram that servicemen from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the National Guard and the State Border Guard Service were among those released.

    Meanwhile, the Russian defense ministry said another group of Russian servicemen have returned from Ukrainian captivity and are currently receiving necessary medical and psychological assistance in Belarus.

    The exchange is a part of a broader prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia, which started on Monday in line with an agreement reached in Türkiye’s Istanbul last week. 

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: House Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Member Meeks, Frankel, Shaheen, Schatz Statement on Recissions Package Cuts to Foreign Assistance

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Gregory W Meeks (5th District of New York)

    Washington, D.C. – Today, Representatives Gregory W. Meeks (D-NY), Ranking Member of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Lois Frankel (D-FL), Ranking Member of the U.S. House Appropriations Subcommittee on National Security, Department of State and Related Programs, and U.S. Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Ranking Member of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Brian Schatz (D-HI), Ranking Member of the U.S. Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs, released the following statement concerning the rescissions package sent to Congress by the Trump administration, which would cut $8.3 billion in foreign assistance, including $900 million in cuts to global health programs, as well as cuts to democracy assistance, economic and development assistance, and economic and energy support for Ukraine and other states affected by Russia’s illegal invasion.

    “The cuts to U.S. foreign assistance in the White House’s rescissions package undercut key American national security interests and risk our country’s safety and prosperity. Our soft power toolkit helps prevent conflict and promote democracy and stability. The draconian DOGE cuts that President Trump and Elon Musk have put in place have been justified through misleading claims that ignore the harm to America and global death toll that have resulted from their actions. Their claims about fiscal responsibility are laughable in the context of President Trump’s push at all costs to pass a budget that adds $2.4 trillion in deficits while stripping millions of Americans of their health care.

    “When America retreats from the world, China and Russia advance. And when our adversaries take our place, America is weaker and more vulnerable. Our manufacturers and workers get boxed out of export markets by unfair economic competition from China. And vulnerable populations around the world, suffer from severely restricting access to HIV treatment and prevention services to forcing food ration cuts in refugee camps.

    “That is the legacy of DOGE’s impact on America’s foreign policy infrastructure and soft power. Our country in retreat in the face of great power adversaries. Our global influence diminished. And the poorest of the poor globally being left to die because of slipshod cuts by tech dilettantes.”

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Final draft agenda – Monday, 16 June 2025 – Strasbourg

    Source: European Parliament

    44 The human cost of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the urgent need to end Russian aggression: the situation of illegally detained civilians and prisoners of war, and the continued bombing of civilians
        – Motions for resolutions Wednesday, 2 July 2025, 13:00
        – Amendments to motions for resolutions; joint motions for resolutions Monday, 7 July 2025, 19:00
        – Amendments to joint motions for resolutions Monday, 7 July 2025, 20:00
    16 Strengthening rural areas in the EU through cohesion policy
    Denis Nesci (A10-0092/2025) 
        – Amendments by the rapporteur, 71 MEPs at least; Alternative motions for resolutions Wednesday, 11 June 2025, 13:00
    Texts put to the vote on Tuesday Friday, 13 June 2025, 12:00
    Texts put to the vote on Wednesday Monday, 16 June 2025, 19:00
    Texts put to the vote on Thursday Tuesday, 17 June 2025, 19:00
    Motions for resolutions concerning debates on cases of breaches of human rights, democracy and the rule of law (Rule 150) Wednesday, 18 June 2025, 19:00

    MIL OSI Europe News –