Category: Weather

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: New Caribbean logistic hub boosts disaster response ahead of hurricane season

    Source: World Food Programme

    BRIDGETOWN – The United Nations World Food Programme today joined the Government of Barbados and the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) to inaugurate the Caribbean’s newest disaster preparedness and response hub.

    The Caribbean Regional Logistics Hub, inaugurated just ahead of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, will store and dispatch critical relief items to affected communities in case of a disaster. The hub’s strategic location at the Grantley Adams International Airport and proximity to the main highway and port facilities will allow for both air and sea operations during an emergency response.

    The Hon. Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, Executive Director, CDEMA, Elizabeth Riley, and WFP Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean Lola Castro officially opened the new facility.

     “This hub is about saving lives. This is about getting food and critical supplies, including pharmaceuticals to persons within 48-72 hours of a major disaster. It isn’t only limited to emergency responses for disaster, it is also going to be for humanitarian crises,” said Mottley.

    The hub comprises a large fully enclosed warehouse and outdoor container park with space for up to forty, twenty-foot shipping containers. Additionally, the compound provides adequate space for consolidating equipment before shipping. The hub comprises of 2,500 square metres of covered storage space, 1,300 racked pallets and approximately 1,600sqm of open storage space.

    “Having seen how devastating hurricanes and other hazards can be in the Caribbean, we are proud to have this Caribbean Regional Logistics Hub in place,” said Castro. “WFP works with partners in the region and globally to enhance national response mechanisms to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of disaster response in order to save lives.”

    Through collaboration with CDEMA, the Government of Barbados and other key stakeholders, plans are in place to expand the facility. The next phase, the establishment of a Centre of Excellence, will see the development of greater emergency response knowledge, skills and expertise in the region, through specialized training programmes.

    “Recent geopolitical shifts have disrupted traditional support streams for humanitarian action highlighting the high-risk exposure of our system. The CDEMA system must now re-double efforts towards greater self-reliance, further deepen national capacity, enhance regional cooperation, and embrace new and non-traditional partnerships”, said Riley. “The hub supports this. It offers the infrastructure to pre-position high-demand emergency supplies.”

    While still under construction, the hub proved to be essential to the response to Hurricane Beryl in 2024.

    The construction of the hub was made possible through vital partnerships with the Government of Canada, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, the European Union, the United States and the World Food Program USA.

    #                     #                        #

    The United Nations World Food Programme is the world’s largest humanitarian organization saving lives in emergencies and using food assistance to build a pathway to peace, stability and prosperity for people recovering from conflict, disasters and the impact of climate change.

    Follow us on X, formerly Twitter, via @wfp_media OR @wfp_caribbean

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI Russia: China has launched an emergency response to possible flooding in several regions of the country.

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    BEIJING, May 27 (Xinhua) — China’s National Flood and Drought Control Headquarters on Tuesday announced an emergency response mechanism for possible level IV floods in several regions including Jiangxi, Guizhou and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in response to heavy rains that hit southern regions.

    China’s Ministry of Emergency Management said in a statement that forecasters were expecting heavy rain and thunderstorms in Guizhou Province, areas south of the Yangtze River and much of southern China over the next three days.

    The current round of precipitation promises to be the heaviest since the start of the year, leaving a number of regions facing a high risk of natural disasters due to heavy rainfall, the statement said.

    The statement said China’s National Flood and Drought Control Headquarters has sent two working teams to regions to lead flood control and disaster relief efforts.

    Flood and emergency management authorities are instructed to step up efforts to monitor rainfall and flooding, provide timely information, check for risks and potential safety hazards, and stock up on necessary materials in key locations in advance.

    Let us recall that China has a four-tier flood emergency response system, with the first tier being the most serious. -0-

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI Global: Managing forests and other ecosystems under rising threats requires thinking across wide-ranging scenarios

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kyra Clark-Wolf, Research Scientist in Ecological Transformation, University of Colorado Boulder

    Thinking through scenarios allows land managers to prepare for many potential outcomes. Benjamin Slyngstad via USGS

    In Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in California, trees that have persisted through rain and shine for thousands of years are now facing multiple threats triggered by a changing climate.

    Scientists and park managers once thought giant sequoia forests nearly impervious to stressors like wildfire, drought and pests. Yet, even very large trees are proving vulnerable, particularly when those stressors are amplified by rising temperatures and increasing weather extremes.

    The rapid pace of climate change – combined with threats like the spread of invasive species and diseases – can affect ecosystems in ways that defy expectations based on past experiences. As a result, Western forests are transitioning to grasslands or shrublands after unprecedented wildfires. Woody plants are expanding into coastal wetlands. Coral reefs are being lost entirely.

    Nate Stephenson, from the U.S. Geological Survey, talks about the fire damage at Redwood Mountain Grove in the Kings Canyon National Park, Calif., in 2021.
    AP Photo/Gary Kazanjian

    To protect these places, which are valued for their natural beauty and the benefits they provide for recreation, clean water and wildlife, forest and land managers increasingly must anticipate risks they have never seen before. And they must prepare for what those risks will mean for stewardship as ecosystems rapidly transform.

    As ecologists and a climate scientist, we’re helping them figure out how to do that.

    Managing changing ecosystems

    Traditional management approaches focus on maintaining or restoring how ecosystems looked and functioned historically.

    However, that doesn’t always work when ecosystems are subjected to new and rapidly shifting conditions.

    Ecosystems have many moving parts – plants, animals, fungi and microbes; and the soil, air and water in which they live – that interact with one another in complex ways.

    When the climate changes, it’s like shifting the ground on which everything rests. The results can undermine the integrity of the system, leading to ecological changes that are hard to predict.

    To plan for an uncertain future, natural resource managers need to consider many different ways changes in climate and ecosystems could affect their landscapes. Essentially, what scenarios are possible?

    Preparing for multiple possibilities

    At Sequoia and Kings Canyon, park managers were aware that climate change posed some big risks to the iconic trees under their care. More than a decade ago, they undertook a major effort to explore different scenarios that could play out in the future.

    It’s a good thing they did, because some of the more extreme possibilities they imagined happened sooner than expected.

    In 2014, drought in California caused the giant sequoias’ foliage to die back, something never documented before. In 2017, sequoia trees began dying from insect damage. And, in 2020 and 2021, fires burned through sequoia groves, killing thousands of ancient trees.

    While these extreme events came as a surprise to many people, thinking through the possibilities ahead of time meant the park managers had already begun to take steps that proved beneficial. One example was prioritizing prescribed burns to remove undergrowth that could fuel hotter, more destructive fires.

    Insulating wraps protected the giant sequoia General Sherman from a fire in 2021.
    Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

    The key to effective planning is a thoughtful consideration of a suite of strategies that are likely to succeed in the face of many different changes in climates and ecosystems. That involves thinking through wide-ranging potential outcomes to see how different strategies might fare under each scenario – including preparing for catastrophic possibilities, even those considered unlikely.

    For example, prescribed burning may reduce risks from both catastrophic wildfire and drought by reducing the density of plant growth, whereas suppressing all fires could increase those risks in the long run.

    Strategies undertaken today have consequences for decades to come. Managers need to have confidence that they are making good investments when they put limited resources toward actions like forest thinning, invasive species control, buying seeds or replanting trees. Scenarios can help inform those investment choices.

    Constructing credible scenarios of ecological change to inform this type of planning requires considering the most important unknowns. Scenarios look not only at how the climate could change, but also how complex ecosystems could react and what surprises might lay beyond the horizon.

    Scientists at the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center are collaborating with managers in the Nebraska Sandhills to develop scenarios of future ecological change under different climate conditions, disturbance events like fires and extreme droughts, and land uses like grazing.
    Photos: T. Walz, M. Lavin, C. Helzer, O. Richmond, NPS (top to bottom)., CC BY

    Key ingredients for crafting ecological scenarios

    To provide some guidance to people tasked with managing these landscapes, we brought together a group of experts in ecology, climate science, and natural resource management from across universities and government agencies.

    We identified three key ingredients for constructing credible ecological scenarios:

    1. Embracing ecological uncertainty: Instead of banking on one “most likely” outcome for ecosystems in a changing climate, managers can better prepare by mapping out multiple possibilities. In Nebraska’s Sandhills, we are exploring how this mostly intact native prairie could transform, with outcomes as divergent as woodlands and open dunes.

    2. Thinking in trajectories: It’s helpful to consider not just the outcomes, but also the potential pathways for getting there. Will ecological changes unfold gradually or all at once? By envisioning different pathways through which ecosystems might respond to climate change and other stressors, natural resource managers can identify critical moments where specific actions, such as removing tree seedlings encroaching into grasslands, can steer ecosystems toward a more desirable future.

    3. Preparing for surprises: Planning for rare disasters or sudden species collapses helps managers respond nimbly when the unexpected strikes, such as a severe drought leading to widespread erosion. Being prepared for abrupt changes and having contingency plans can mean the difference between quickly helping an ecosystem recover and losing it entirely.

    Over the past decade, access to climate model projections through easy-to-use websites has revolutionized resource managers’ ability to explore different scenarios of how the local climate might change.

    What managers are missing today is similar access to ecological model projections and tools that can help them anticipate possible changes in ecosystems. To bridge this gap, we believe the scientific community should prioritize developing ecological projections and decision-support tools that can empower managers to plan for ecological uncertainty with greater confidence and foresight.

    Ecological scenarios don’t eliminate uncertainty, but they can help to navigate it more effectively by identifying strategic actions to manage forests and other ecosystems.

    Kyra Clark-Wolf receives funding from USGS, NSF, and National Park Service. She is affiliated with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder and the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center.

    Brian W. Miller receives funding from the U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

    Imtiaz Rangwala receives funding from USGS, USDA, NOAA, US Forest Service and National Park Service. He is affiliated with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Western Water Assessment and Boundless In Motion.

    ref. Managing forests and other ecosystems under rising threats requires thinking across wide-ranging scenarios – https://theconversation.com/managing-forests-and-other-ecosystems-under-rising-threats-requires-thinking-across-wide-ranging-scenarios-253842

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Ida Wolden Bache: Norges Bank’s management of the Government Pension Fund Global

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Thank you for the opportunity to talk about Norges Bank’s management of the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG).

    The investment objective of the GPFG is to achieve the highest possible return at an acceptable level of risk. In 2024, returns were high but lower than the return on the benchmark index against which our performance is measured. The Executive Board emphasises the importance of assessing the performance of the GPFG over long periods and is satisfied that the return over time has been higher than the return on the benchmark index.

    We are in a period of global transition. The framework for global trade and cooperation is in play, and the security policy landscape is changing. This has resulted in substantial volatility in the return on the GPFG’s investments so far in 2025.

    I have three key messages today:

    First, the experience from previous periods of turbulence, as well as the strengthening of Norges Bank’s work on geopolitical risk in recent years, makes the management of the GPFG better equipped to face the current uncertainty.

    Second, the GPFG has a financial objective. Active ownership is about managing risk and creating economic value over time.

    Third, the energy transition provides investment opportunities. We continue to build a portfolio of renewable energy infrastructure assets and have increased the number of such investments over the past year.

    Let me begin with the ability to face new uncertainty.

    The Ministry of Finance determines the investment strategy and the benchmark index, and significant strategic decisions are endorsed by the Storting (Norwegian parliament). The equity allocation is 70 percent, and risk is reduced by broad diversification, across regions, sectors and individual companies. The return of the GPFG tracks the benchmark index closely.

    Equity investments have been important for the GPFG’s performance. At the end of 2024, the cumulative return on the GPFG amounted to over NOK 11 000 billion since inception, of which equity investments accounted for almost NOK 10 000 billion. In order to achieve this return, we have had to withstand several periods of substantial falls in value.

    The repricing of technology stocks after 2000, the financial crisis and the outbreak of the pandemic come to mind. Crises do not repeat themselves. Each crisis is unique and difficult to foresee. Nevertheless, being able to follow the GPFG’s investment strategy through periods of turbulence is a strength.

    The Executive Board is responsible for ensuring that Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) has the systems, resources and expertise needed to monitor, assess and manage the risk resulting from geopolitical conditions.

    In recent years, NBIM’s management of this risk has been strengthened. The scenario analysis and stress testing are part of this. NBIM has built up more expertise and improved internal coordination. The Bank also participates in meetings of the Contact Forum established by the Ministry of Finance for the exchange of information on international matters. All of this enhances contingency preparedness, but contingency planning entails continuous work.

    Let me now turn to active ownership. As owner, we have expectations towards the boards of directors of the GPFG’s investee companies. The expectations are described in expectation documents that cover different environmental, social and governance issues. The expectations are principles-based and are publicly available.

    Active ownership is about risk management and creating long-term economic value. Climate risk is one example of this. In our opinion, companies that address risks associated with climate change will perform better over time. As a long-term owner of almost all listed companies, it is in the GPFG’s own-interest to have an orderly energy transition.

    The energy transition also creates investment opportunities. The mandate provides for investing some of the GPFG in unlisted renewable energy infrastructure. These are active investment decisions that are subject to the same requirements for risk and return as the GPFG’s other investments.

    In 2024 and so far in 2025, the Bank has made more investments in unlisted renewable energy infrastructure than previously. The new investments include solar and onshore wind projects in Portugal and Spain and offshore wind projects in the UK, Denmark and Germany. The Bank has also invested in a fund that includes early-stage renewable projects. This fund will invest in different types of technology and across various regions.

    The Executive Board has established a framework for unlisted investments that emphasises that also this part of the GPFG’s management must be cost-efficient and responsible.  High transparency and reporting standards are required.

    Let me conclude. Norges Bank’s management of the GPFG is based on a clear mandate and a framework that has proven robust over time. If we consider that adjustments to the mandate are needed, we are conscious of our responsibility as adviser to the Ministry of Finance.

    We welcome the Ministry’s appointment of an external expert group that will review the GPFG’s investment strategy. Such reviews further develop the management of the GPFG, and we will of course make ourselves available to the group if they so wish.

    With that, I will pass you to Nicolai Tangen.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI USA: EIA counts U.S. electricity generation in different ways

    Source: US Energy Information Administration

    Filter by article type:

    In-brief analysis

    May 27, 2025

    Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor


    At EIA, we publish U.S. electricity net generation from two different perspectives:

    Read More ›

    In-brief analysis

    May 22, 2025

    Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
    Note: Real prices are adjusted to May 2025 dollars.

    The retail price for regular-grade gasoline in the United States on May 19, the Monday before Memorial Day weekend, averaged $3.17 per gallon (gal), 11% (or 41 cents/gal) lower than the price a year ago. After adjusting for inflation (real terms), average U.S. retail gasoline prices going into Memorial Day weekend are 14% lower than last year, largely because crude oil prices have fallen.

    Read More ›

    In-brief analysis

    May 21, 2025

    Data source: United Nations Statistics Division, UN Comtrade
    Note: Excludes trade within regions.

    China has a major role at each stage of the global battery supply chain and dominates interregional trade of minerals. China imported almost 12 million short tons of raw and processed battery minerals, accounting for 44% of interregional trade, and exported almost 11 million short tons of battery materials, packs, and components, or 58% of interregional trade in 2023, according to regional UN Comtrade data.

    Read More ›

    In-depth analysis

    May 20, 2025


    Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast estimates the 2025 hurricane season will exceed the 1991–2020 average, with an estimate of 17 named storms, compared with a historical average of 14 storms. Meteorologists expect 13–18 named storms, including 3–6 storms with direct impacts on the United States, during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, according to reports from AccuWeather in April.

    Read More ›

    In-brief analysis

    May 19, 2025


    We expect U.S. hydropower generation will increase by 7.5% in 2025 but will remain 2.4% below the 10-year average in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Hydropower generation in 2024 fell to 241 billion kilowatthours (BkWh), the lowest since at least 2010; in 2025, we expect generation will be 259.1 BkWh. This amount of generation would represent 6% of the electricity generation in the country.

    Read More ›

    In-brief analysis

    May 15, 2025

    Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), May 2025, and Oxford Economics
    Note: Excludes 2020 and 2021 as outlier years because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    We forecast consumption growth of crude oil and other liquid fuels will slow over the next two years, driven by a slowdown in economic growth, particularly in Asia, in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

    Read More ›

    In-depth analysis

    May 14, 2025


    Retail electricity prices have increased faster than the rate of inflation since 2022, and we expect them to continue increasing through 2026, based on forecasts in our Short-Term Energy Outlook. Parts of the country with relatively high electricity prices may experience greater price increases than those with relatively low electricity prices.

    Read More ›

    In-brief analysis

    May 13, 2025


    In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. annual electricity consumption will increase in 2025 and 2026, surpassing the all-time high reached in 2024. This growth contrasts with the trend of relatively flat electricity demand between the mid-2000s and early 2020s. Much of the recent and forecasted growth in electricity consumption is coming from the commercial sector, which includes data centers, and the industrial sector, which includes manufacturing establishments.

    Read More ›

    In-brief analysis

    May 12, 2025


    The average electric monthly bill for U.S. residential customers was $144 in 2024, but average costs for customers in some states were much higher or lower. Customers in states such as Hawaii and Connecticut, where retail electricity prices are relatively high, paid more than $200 per month for electricity, or more than twice as much as customers in states such as New Mexico and Utah.

    Read More ›

    In-brief analysis

    May 7, 2025

    Data source: FracFocus
    Note: To calculate the number of wells completed per location, we grouped wells within a 50-foot radius into single locations. We then identified wells completed by their completion start and end dates, counting concurrent completions when their completion periods overlapped.

    We estimate that the average number of wells completed simultaneously at the same location in the Lower 48 states has more than doubled, increasing from 1.5 wells in December 2014 to more than 3.0 wells in June 2024. By completing multiple wells at once rather than sequentially, operators can accelerate their production timeline and reduce their cost per well. The increasing number of simultaneous completions reflects significant technological advances in hydraulic fracturing operations, particularly in equipment capabilities and operational strategies.

    Read More ›

    In-brief analysis

    May 6, 2025

    Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly; company announcements and trade press
    Note: Other Biofuels includes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha, renewable propane, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization. SAF production capacity is an estimate based on company announcements and trade press and only includes hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) SAF. We do not publish SAF production capacity data.

    Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production is growing in the United States as new capacity comes online. U.S. production of Other Biofuels, the category we use to capture SAF in our Petroleum Supply Monthly, approximately doubled from December 2024 to February 2025.

    Read More ›

    In-brief analysis

    May 5, 2025

    Data source: AAA

    Retail prices for regular grade gasoline in California are consistently higher than in any other state in the continental United States, often exceeding the national average by more than a dollar per gallon. Several factors contribute to this high price, including state taxes and fees, environmental requirements, special fuel requirements, and isolated petroleum markets.

    Read More ›

    In-brief analysis

    May 1, 2025

    Data source: CME Group, Bloomberg L.P.
    Note: Refinery margin is calculated as the 3-2-1 crack spread on the U.S. Atlantic Coast, which represents two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate fuel oil minus three barrels of Brent crude oil. 1Q25=first quarter of 2025


    During the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), crude oil prices generally decreased while U.S. refinery margins initially increased before decreasing in the final month of the quarter. In this quarterly update, we review petroleum markets price developments in 1Q25, covering crude oil prices, refinery margins, biofuel compliance credit prices, and natural gas plant liquids prices.

    Read More ›

    In-brief analysis

    Apr 30, 2025

    Data source: Evaluate Energy
    Note: Production expenses include costs of goods sold, operating expenses, and production taxes from company income statements. Interest expenses are in 2024 dollars and deflated using the Consumer Price Index.


    Higher oil prices, increased drilling efficiency, and structurally lower debt needs have contributed to lower interest expenses for some publicly traded U.S. oil companies over the past decade, despite the level of interest rates across the economy being relatively high.

    Read More ›

    In-brief analysis

    Apr 29, 2025


    U.S. imports of petroleum products decreased by 210,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 to average 1.8 million b/d. Imports of all major transportation fuels, such as motor gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as other products, such as unfinished oils, decreased.

    Read More ›

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: President Lai meets delegation from European Parliament

    Source: Republic of China Taiwan

    Details
    2025-05-20
    President Lai hosts state banquet for President Surangel Whipps Jr. of Republic of Palau
    On the evening of May 20, President Lai Ching-te, accompanied by Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao, hosted a state banquet at the Presidential Office in honor of President Surangel Whipps Jr. of the Republic of Palau and his wife. In remarks, President Lai said that he looks forward to working closely with President Whipps to promote tourism exchanges and sports cooperation so that Taiwan and Palau shine brightly together on the international stage. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: It is a pleasure to host this banquet tonight at the Presidential Office for President Whipps, First Lady Valerie Whipps, and the esteemed members of their delegation. Welcome to Taiwan. During my trips to Palau in 2022 and last year, President and First Lady Whipps received me with great hospitality. Wearing my island shirt, I enjoyed a very friendly reception from the people of Palau. It felt warm and friendly, just like being welcomed back home. The first time I visited Palau, President Whipps and I piloted a boat to the Milky Way lagoon. We both tried volcanic mud facial masks. We also fished together and enjoyed the breeze as we walked on the beach. Last year, on my second visit to Palau, I was honored to be invited to address the National Congress. I also observed the results of the close bilateral cooperation between our two nations. Due to its world-famous ocean scenery, Palau is sometimes referred to as “God’s aquarium.” And it is even possible to snorkel with sharks. It leaves a deep impression. Nothing compares to seeing Palau firsthand. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan and Palau launched a travel bubble that created a safe means of travel. Now, with the pandemic behind us, I hope that even more Taiwanese can tour Palau and gain a greater understanding of our diplomatic ally. In addition to tourism exchanges, I mentioned on my visit to Palau last year that I hoped Taiwan and Palau could promote sports cooperation by providing training away from home. Next month, Palau will be holding the Pacific Mini Games. And right now, Palau’s national baseball and table tennis teams are holding training sessions here in Taiwan. We will do our utmost to support Palau’s national players and we hope they stand out and achieve outstanding results in the events. I look forward to working closely with President Whipps so that Taiwan and Palau shine brightly together on the international stage. Thank you! Mesulang! President Whipps then delivered remarks, saying that it is truly an honor to be here once again one year after President Lai’s inauguration. Mentioning that this is his first state visit after being reelected to a second term, he said that it is important to be here among friends, and that we are more than friends, we are family. He thanked President Lai for the generous words and, most importantly, Taiwan’s enduring support. He remarked that our relationship continues to get stronger in each passing year. President Whipps said that President Lai’s diplomacy initiative, leadership, and vision deeply resonate with them. Diplomacy must be rooted in our shared values, he said, and an unwavering support for our allies and a commitment to a sustainable, inclusive development are all deeply appreciated by their people. President Whipps emphasized that, as we look into the future and the challenges that we face, from security to climate change, it is so important that we are united. He added that it is important for the world, and especially important for them in Palau, that they stand up for Taiwan, so that Taiwan can participate on international fora that address climate change, security, and health, because they know the world is better when Taiwan has a seat at the table. Mentioning that Palau will host the Pacific Islands Forum next year, President Whipps said that Palau remains committed to working closely with Taiwan to ensure a successful event, and that they will continue to speak up for Taiwan’s indispensable contributions as we stand together against any efforts to silence or isolate democratic partners. President Whipps said that our nations have navigated challenges and emerged stronger, bound by a partnership that is built on trust, respect, and hope for a better world. Whether it is in clean energy, education, smart medicine, or tourism, our shared journey is just beginning, he said, and we are stronger together.  Also in attendance at the banquet were Palauan Minister of State Gustav Aitaro, Minister of Public Infrastructure and Industries Charles Obichang, Minister of Human Resources, Culture, Tourism and Development Ngiraibelas Tmetuchl, Senate Floor Leader Kerai Mariur, House of Delegates Floor Leader Warren Umetaro, High Chief of Ngiwal State Elliot Udui, Governor of Peleliu State Emais Roberts, and Governor of Koror State Eyos Rudimch.

    Details
    2025-05-20
    President Lai and President Surangel S. Whipps, Jr. of Palau hold bilateral talks and witness signing of cooperation agreements  
    On the afternoon of May 20, following a welcome ceremony with military honors for President Surangel S. Whipps, Jr. of the Republic of Palau and his wife, President Lai Ching-te, accompanied by Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao, held bilateral talks with President Whipps at the Presidential Office. The two leaders also jointly witnessed the signing of a technical cooperation agreement and an agreement on diplomatic staff training cooperation. In remarks, President Lai thanked Palau for standing firm in its backing of Taiwan’s international participation as geopolitical tensions continue to increase in the Pacific region. He added that he looks forward to the cooperative ties between Taiwan and Palau continuing to expand into even broader areas, allowing our economies and societies to further progress as we jointly advance peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: I welcome our guests to Taiwan once again. Last year on May 20, President Whipps led a delegation to attend the inauguration ceremony for myself and Vice President Hsiao. I am delighted, on the anniversary of my first year in office, to meet with old friends of Taiwan again, as President Whipps returns for this visit. Taiwan-Palau relations have grown even closer in recent years thanks to the strong support of President Whipps. In 2022, during my term as vice president, I led a delegation to Palau as a demonstration of how our nations were together boosting tourism development as we jointly faced the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. Every time I visit Palau, and every time I meet with President Whipps, I feel very deeply that Taiwan and Palau are like family. We are both maritime nations and share a common Austronesian heritage and culture. We are also staunch partners in upholding such values as freedom, democracy, and respect for human rights. Last December, when I went on my first overseas trip since taking office, one of the nations I visited was Palau. We celebrated the 30th anniversary of Palau’s independence and 25 years of diplomatic relations, underscoring our friendly ties. Taiwan and Palau enjoy close exchanges and cooperation in a range of areas, including climate change, education, agriculture and fisheries, healthcare, humanitarian assistance, sports, and culture. After this meeting, President Whipps and I will witness the signing of a technical cooperation agreement and an agreement on diplomatic staff training cooperation, demonstrating once again our diverse collaboration and strong friendship. I believe that by working together, Taiwan and Palau can contribute to each other’s development and overcome the regional and global challenges we currently face. In particular, as geopolitical tensions continue to increase in the Pacific region, Palau has wisely and courageously upheld democratic values and stood firm in its backing of Taiwan’s international participation. Palau has never stopped voicing support for Taiwan, including at the United Nations General Assembly, the World Health Organization, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties, and the UN Ocean Conference. We have been deeply moved by this support. I thank President Whipps again for his high regard and support for Taiwan. I look forward to the cooperative ties between our nations continuing to expand into even broader areas. This will allow our economies and societies to further progress as we jointly advance peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. President Whipps then delivered remarks, saying that it is a great honor for him to be here, standing in this historic place – a symbol of strength, resilience, and the democratic spirit of the Taiwanese people. On behalf of the government of Palau, President Whipps extended heartfelt gratitude to President Lai and the people of Taiwan for the warm welcome and gracious hospitality toward him and his delegation. President Whipps then extended sincere thanks for President Lai’s visit to Palau in December – his second visit to Palau – and for having Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) attend his inauguration as a special envoy. He added that this also marks his third visit to Taiwan since President Lai took office, saying that this demonstrates the strength of our growing relationship. President Whipps indicated that the increased engagements and numerous entrepreneurs that President Lai has brought from Taiwan to Palau have resulted in fruitful visits, and that President Lai’s leadership represents hope, unity, and continued advancement of democracy and freedom, not only for Taiwan, but for the broader Indo-Pacific region. President Whipps went on to say that this visit to Taiwan reaffirms our deep friendship and shared values between our two nations. He emphasized that Palau and Taiwan are bound not by proximity, but by purpose, in that both are island nations and believe in human dignity, the rule of law, and the right of our people to determine their own futures. President Whipps stated that although we are celebrating 26 years of diplomatic relations, Taiwan has been a steadfast partner of Palau for decades, and that one of the MOUs they are signing further extends the relationship that began in December of 1984. From healthcare and medical missions, to education, agriculture, renewable energy, infrastructure, the private sector, tourism development, and climate resilience, he said, our cooperation has improved lives and strengthened our communities. The president also indicated that during the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan stood with Palau, noting that both sides began the tourism bubble, and that President Lai came to Palau to reopen the two weekly direct flights that have now been increased to four. That solidarity will never be forgotten, he said. As the world faces growing uncertainty and complex challenges from climate change to global tensions, President Whipps said, this friendship becomes even more vital. The president concluded his remarks by expressing hope that both nations continue to stand together, work together, and advocate together for peace, prosperity, and for the right of small nations to be seen, heard, and respected. After the bilateral talks, President Lai and President Whipps witnessed the signing of the technical cooperation agreement and the agreement on diplomatic staff training cooperation by Minister Lin and Palauan Minister of State Gustav Aitaro. The delegation also included Palauan Minister of Public Infrastructure and Industries Charles Obichang, Minister of Human Resources, Culture, Tourism and Development Ngiraibelas Tmetuchl, Senate Floor Leader Kerai Mariur, House of Delegates Floor Leader Warren Umetaro, High Chief of Ngiwal State Elliot Udui, Governor of Peleliu State Emais Roberts, and Governor of Koror State Eyos Rudimch.  

    Details
    2025-05-20
    President Lai interviewed by Nippon Television and Yomiuri TV
    In a recent interview on Nippon Television’s news zero program, President Lai Ching-te responded to questions from host Mr. Sakurai Sho and Yomiuri TV Shanghai Bureau Chief Watanabe Masayo on topics including reflections on his first year in office, cross-strait relations, China’s military threats, Taiwan-United States relations, and Taiwan-Japan relations. The interview was broadcast on the evening of May 19. During the interview, President Lai stated that China intends to change the world’s rules-based international order, and that if Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted. Therefore, he said, Taiwan will strengthen its national defense, prevent war by preparing for war, and achieve the goal of peace. The president also noted that Taiwan’s purpose for developing drones is based on national security and industrial needs, and that Taiwan hopes to collaborate with Japan. He then reiterated that China’s threats are an international problem, and expressed hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war. Following is the text of the questions and the president’s responses: Q: How do you feel as you are about to round out your first year in office? President Lai: When I was young, I was determined to practice medicine and save lives. When I left medicine to go into politics, I was determined to transform Taiwan. And when I was sworn in as president on May 20 last year, I was determined to strengthen the nation. Time flies, and it has already been a year. Although the process has been very challenging, I am deeply honored to be a part of it. I am also profoundly grateful to our citizens for allowing me the opportunity to give back to our country. The future will certainly be full of more challenges, but I will do everything I can to unite the people and continue strengthening the nation. That is how I am feeling now. Q: We are now coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and over this period, we have often heard that conflict between Taiwan and the mainland is imminent. Do you personally believe that a cross-strait conflict could happen? President Lai: The international community is very much aware that China intends to replace the US and change the world’s rules-based international order, and annexing Taiwan is just the first step. So, as China’s military power grows stronger, some members of the international community are naturally on edge about whether a cross-strait conflict will break out. The international community must certainly do everything in its power to avoid a conflict in the Taiwan Strait; there is too great a cost. Besides causing direct disasters to both Taiwan and China, the impact on the global economy would be even greater, with estimated losses of US$10 trillion from war alone – that is roughly 10 percent of the global GDP. Additionally, 20 percent of global shipping passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, so if a conflict breaks out in the strait, other countries including Japan and Korea would suffer a grave impact. For Japan and Korea, a quarter of external transit passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, and a third of the various energy resources and minerals shipped back from other countries pass through said areas. If Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted, and therefore conflict in the Taiwan Strait must be avoided. Such a conflict is indeed avoidable. I am very thankful to Prime Minister of Japan Ishiba Shigeru and former Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo, Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida Fumio, as well as US President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden, and the other G7 leaders, for continuing to emphasize at international venues that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are essential components for global security and prosperity. When everyone in the global democratic community works together, stacking up enough strength to make China’s objectives unattainable or to make the cost of invading Taiwan too high for it to bear, a conflict in the strait can naturally be avoided. Q: As you said, President Lai, maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is also very important for other countries. How can war be avoided? What sort of countermeasures is Taiwan prepared to take to prevent war? President Lai: As Mr. Sakurai mentioned earlier, we are coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII. There are many lessons we can take from that war. First is that peace is priceless, and war has no winners. From the tragedies of WWII, there are lessons that humanity should learn. We must pursue peace, and not start wars blindly, as that would be a major disaster for humanity. In other words, we must be determined to safeguard peace. The second lesson is that we cannot be complacent toward authoritarian powers. If you give them an inch, they will take a mile. They will keep growing, and eventually, not only will peace be unattainable, but war will be inevitable. The third lesson is why WWII ended: It ended because different groups joined together in solidarity. Taiwan, Japan, and the Indo-Pacific region are all directly subjected to China’s threats, so we hope to be able to join together in cooperation. This is why we proposed the Four Pillars of Peace action plan. First, we will strengthen our national defense. Second, we will strengthen economic resilience. Third is standing shoulder to shoulder with the democratic community to demonstrate the strength of deterrence. Fourth is that as long as China treats Taiwan with parity and dignity, Taiwan is willing to conduct exchanges and cooperate with China, and seek peace and mutual prosperity. These four pillars can help us avoid war and achieve peace. That is to say, Taiwan hopes to achieve peace through strength, prevent war by preparing for war, keeping war from happening and pursuing the goal of peace. Q: Regarding drones, everyone knows that recently, Taiwan has been actively researching, developing, and introducing drones. Why do you need to actively research, develop, and introduce new drones at this time? President Lai: This is for two purposes. The first is to meet national security needs. The second is to meet industrial development needs. Because Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines are all part of the first island chain, and we are all democratic nations, we cannot be like an authoritarian country like China, which has an unlimited national defense budget. In this kind of situation, island nations such as Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines should leverage their own technologies to develop national defense methods that are asymmetric and utilize unmanned vehicles. In particular, from the Russo-Ukrainian War, we see that Ukraine has successfully utilized unmanned vehicles to protect itself and prevent Russia from unlimited invasion. In other words, the Russo-Ukrainian War has already proven the importance of drones. Therefore, the first purpose of developing drones is based on national security needs. Second, the world has already entered the era of smart technology. Whether generative, agentic, or physical, AI will continue to develop. In the future, cars and ships will also evolve into unmanned vehicles and unmanned boats, and there will be unmanned factories. Drones will even be able to assist with postal deliveries, or services like Uber, Uber Eats, and foodpanda, or agricultural irrigation and pesticide spraying. Therefore, in the future era of comprehensive smart technology, developing unmanned vehicles is a necessity. Taiwan, based on industrial needs, is actively planning the development of drones and unmanned vehicles. I would like to take this opportunity to express Taiwan’s hope to collaborate with Japan in the unmanned vehicle industry. Just as we do in the semiconductor industry, where Japan has raw materials, equipment, and technology, and Taiwan has wafer manufacturing, our two countries can cooperate. Japan is a technological power, and Taiwan also has significant technological strengths. If Taiwan and Japan work together, we will not only be able to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and security in the Indo-Pacific region, but it will also be very helpful for the industrial development of both countries. Q: The drones you just described probably include examples from the Russo-Ukrainian War. Taiwan and China are separated by the Taiwan Strait. Do our drones need to have cross-sea flight capabilities? President Lai: Taiwan does not intend to counterattack the mainland, and does not intend to invade any country. Taiwan’s drones are meant to protect our own nation and territory. Q: Former President Biden previously stated that US forces would assist Taiwan’s defense in the event of an attack. President Trump, however, has yet to clearly state that the US would help defend Taiwan. Do you think that in such an event, the US would help defend Taiwan? Or is Taiwan now trying to persuade the US? President Lai: Former President Biden and President Trump have answered questions from reporters. Although their responses were different, strong cooperation with Taiwan under the Biden administration has continued under the Trump administration; there has been no change. During President Trump’s first term, cooperation with Taiwan was broader and deeper compared to former President Barack Obama’s terms. After former President Biden took office, cooperation with Taiwan increased compared to President Trump’s first term. Now, during President Trump’s second term, cooperation with Taiwan is even greater than under former President Biden. Taiwan-US cooperation continues to grow stronger, and has not changed just because President Trump and former President Biden gave different responses to reporters. Furthermore, the Trump administration publicly stated that in the future, the US will shift its strategic focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. The US secretary of defense even publicly stated that the primary mission of the US is to prevent China from invading Taiwan, maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, and thus maintain world peace. There is a saying in Taiwan that goes, “Help comes most to those who help themselves.” Before asking friends and allies for assistance in facing threats from China, Taiwan must first be determined and prepared to defend itself. This is Taiwan’s principle, and we are working in this direction, making all the necessary preparations to safeguard the nation. Q: I would like to ask you a question about Taiwan-Japan relations. After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, you made an appeal to give Japan a great deal of assistance and care. In particular, you visited Sendai to offer condolences. Later, you also expressed condolences and concern after the earthquakes in Aomori and Kumamoto. What are your expectations for future Taiwan-Japan exchanges and development? President Lai: I come from Tainan, and my constituency is in Tainan. Tainan has very deep ties with Japan, and of course, Taiwan also has deep ties with Japan. However, among Taiwan’s 22 counties and cities, Tainan has the deepest relationship with Japan. I sincerely hope that both of you and your teams will have an opportunity to visit Tainan. I will introduce Tainan’s scenery, including architecture from the era of Japanese rule, Tainan’s cuisine, and unique aspects of Tainan society, and you can also see lifestyles and culture from the Showa era.  The Wushantou Reservoir in Tainan was completed by engineer Mr. Hatta Yoichi from Kanazawa, Japan and the team he led to Tainan after he graduated from then-Tokyo Imperial University. It has nearly a century of history and is still in use today. This reservoir, along with the 16,000-km-long Chianan Canal, transformed the 150,000-hectare Chianan Plain into Taiwan’s premier rice-growing area. It was that foundation in agriculture that enabled Taiwan to develop industry and the technology sector of today. The reservoir continues to supply water to Tainan Science Park. It is used by residents of Tainan, the agricultural sector, and industry, and even the technology sector in Xinshi Industrial Park, as well as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Because of this, the people of Tainan are deeply grateful for Mr. Hatta and very friendly toward the people of Japan. A major earthquake, the largest in 50 years, struck Tainan on February 6, 2016, resulting in significant casualties. As mayor of Tainan at the time, I was extremely grateful to then-Prime Minister Abe, who sent five Japanese officials to the disaster site in Tainan the day after the earthquake. They were very thoughtful and asked what kind of assistance we needed from the Japanese government. They offered to provide help based on what we needed. I was deeply moved, as former Prime Minister Abe showed such care, going beyond the formality of just sending supplies that we may or may not have actually needed. Instead, the officials asked what we needed and then provided assistance based on those needs, which really moved me. Similarly, when the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 or the later Kumamoto earthquakes struck, the people of Tainan, under my leadership, naturally and dutifully expressed their support. Even earlier, when central Taiwan was hit by a major earthquake in 1999, Japan was the first country to deploy a rescue team to the disaster area. On February 6, 2018, after a major earthquake in Hualien, former Prime Minister Abe appeared in a video holding up a message of encouragement he had written in calligraphy saying “Remain strong, Taiwan.” All of Taiwan was deeply moved. Over the years, Taiwan and Japan have supported each other when earthquakes struck, and have forged bonds that are family-like, not just neighborly. This is truly valuable. In the future, I hope Taiwan and Japan can be like brothers, and that the peoples of Taiwan and Japan can treat one another like family. If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem; if Japan has a problem, then Taiwan has a problem. By caring for and helping each other, we can face various challenges and difficulties, and pursue a brighter future. Q: President Lai, you just used the phrase “If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem.” In the event that China attempts to invade Taiwan by force, what kind of response measures would you hope the US military and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces take? President Lai: As I just mentioned, annexing Taiwan is only China’s first step. Its ultimate objective is to change the rules-based international order. That being the case, China’s threats are an international problem. So, I would very much hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war – prevention, after all, is more important than cure.

    Details
    2025-05-13
    President Lai interviewed by Japan’s Nikkei  
    In a recent interview with Japan’s Nikkei, President Lai Ching-te responded to questions regarding Taiwan-Japan and Taiwan-United States relations, cross-strait relations, the semiconductor industry, and the international economic and trade landscape. The interview was published by Nikkei on May 13. President Lai indicated that Nikkei, Inc. is a global news organization that has received significant recognition both domestically and internationally, and that he is deeply honored to be interviewed by Nikkei and grateful for their invitation. The president said that he would like to take this rare opportunity to thank Japan’s government, National Diet, society, and public for their longstanding support for Taiwan. Noting that current Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and former Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo, Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida Fumio have all strongly supported Taiwan, he said that the peoples of Taiwan and Japan also have a deep mutual affection, and that through the interview, he hopes to enhance the bilateral relationship between Taiwan and Japan, deepen the affection between our peoples, and foster more future cooperation to promote prosperity and development in both countries. In response to questions raised on the free trade system and the recent tariff war, President Lai indicated that over the past few decades, the free economy headed by the Western world and led by the US has brought economic prosperity and political stability to Taiwan and Japan. At the same time, he said, we have also learned or followed many Western values. The president said he believes that Taiwan and Japan are exemplary students, but some countries are not. Therefore, he said, the biggest crisis right now is China, which exploits the free trade system to engage in plagiarism and counterfeiting, infringe on intellectual property rights, and even provide massive government subsidies that facilitate the dumping of low-priced goods worldwide, which has a major impact on many countries including Japan and Taiwan. If this kind of unfair trade is not resolved, he said, the stable societies and economic prosperity we have painstakingly built over decades, as well as some of the values we pursue, could be destroyed. Therefore, President Lai said he thinks it is worthwhile for us to observe the recent willingness of the US to address unfair trade, and if necessary, offer assistance. President Lai emphasized that the national strategic plan for Taiwanese industries is for them to be rooted in Taiwan while expanding their global presence and marketing worldwide. Therefore, he said, while the 32 percent tariff increase imposed by the US on Taiwan is indeed a major challenge, we are willing to address it seriously and find opportunities within that challenge, making Taiwan’s strategic plan for industry even more comprehensive. When asked about Taiwan’s trade arrangements, President Lai indicated that in 2010 China accounted for 83.8 percent of Taiwan’s outbound investment, but last year it accounted for only 7.5 percent. In 2020, he went on, 43.9 percent of Taiwan’s exports went to China, but that figure dropped to 31.7 percent in 2024. The president said that we have systematically transferred investments from Taiwanese enterprises to Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US. Therefore, he said, last year Taiwan’s largest outbound investment was in the US, accounting for roughly 40 percent of the total. Nevertheless, only 23.4 percent of Taiwanese products were sold to the US, with 76.6 percent sold to places other than the US, he said.  The president emphasized that we don’t want to put all our eggs in one basket, and hope to establish a global presence. Under these circumstances, he said, Taiwan is very eager to cooperate with Japan. President Lai stated that at this moment, the Indo-Pacific and international community really need Japan’s leadership, especially to make the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) excel in its functions, and also requested Japan to support Taiwan’s CPTPP accession. The president said that Taiwan hopes to sign an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan to build closer ties in economic trade and promote further investment, and that we also hope to strengthen relations with the European Union, and even other regions. Currently, he said, we are proposing an initiative on global semiconductor supply chain partnerships for democracies, because the semiconductor industry is an ecosystem. The president raised the example that Japan has materials, equipment, and technology; the US has IC design and marketing; Taiwan has production and manufacturing; and the Netherlands excels in equipment, saying we therefore hope to leverage Taiwan’s advantages in production and manufacturing to connect the democratic community and establish a global non-red supply chain for semiconductors, ensuring further world prosperity and development in the future, and ensuring that free trade can continue to function without being affected by dumping, which would undermine future prosperity and development. The president stated that as we want industries to expand their global presence and market internationally while staying rooted here in Taiwan, having industries rooted in Taiwan involves promoting pay raises for employees, tax cuts, and deregulation, as well as promoting enterprise investment tax credits. He said that we have also proposed Three Major Programs for Investing in Taiwan for Taiwanese enterprises and are actively resolving issues regarding access to water, electricity, land, human resources, and professional talent so that the business community can return to Taiwan to invest, or enterprises in Taiwan can increase their investments. He went on to say that we are also actively signing bilateral investment agreements with friends and allies so that when our companies invest and expand their presence abroad, their rights and interests as investors are ensured.  President Lai mentioned that Taiwan hopes to sign an EPA with Japan, similar to the Taiwan-US Initiative on 21st-Century Trade and the Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue, or the Enhanced Trade Partnership arrangement with the United Kingdom, or similar agreements or memorandums of understanding with Canada and Australia that allow Taiwanese products to be marketed worldwide, concluding that those are our overall arrangements. Looking at the history of Taiwan’s industrial development, President Lai indicated, of course it began in Taiwan, and then moved west to China and south to Southeast Asia. He said that we hope to take this opportunity to strengthen cooperation with Japan to the north, across the Pacific Ocean to the east, and develop the North American market, making Taiwan’s industries even stronger. In other words, he said, while Taiwan sees the current reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US as a kind of challenge, it also views these changes positively. On the topic of pressure from China affecting Taiwan’s participation in international frameworks such as the CPTPP or its signing of an EPA with Japan, President Lai responded that the key point is what kind of attitude we should adopt in viewing China’s acts of oppression. If we act based on our belief in free trade, he said, or on the universal values we pursue – democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights – and also on the understanding that a bilateral trade agreement between Taiwan and Japan would contribute to the economic prosperity and development of both countries, or that Taiwan’s accession to the CPTPP would benefit progress and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region, then he hopes that friends and allies will strongly support us. On the Trump administration’s intentions regarding the reciprocal tariff policy and the possibility of taxing semiconductors, as well as how Taiwan plans to respond, President Lai said that since President Trump took office, he has paid close attention to interviews with both him and his staff. The president said that several of President Trump’s main intentions are: First, he wants to address the US fiscal situation. For example, President Lai said, while the US GDP is about US$29 trillion annually, its national debt stands at US$36 trillion, which is roughly 124 percent of GDP. Second, he went on, annual government spending exceeds US$6.5 trillion, but revenues are only around US$4.5 trillion, resulting in a nearly US$2 trillion deficit each year, about 7 percent of GDP. Third, he said, the US pays nearly US$1.2 trillion in interest annually, which exceeds the US$1 trillion defense budget and accounts for more than 3 percent of GDP. Fourth, President Trump still wants to implement tax cuts, aiming to reduce taxes for 85 percent of Americans, he said, noting that this would cost between US$500 billion and US$1 trillion. These points, President Lai said, illustrate his first goal: solving the fiscal problem. President Lai went on to say that second, the US feels the threat of China and believes that reindustrialization is essential; without reindustrialization, the US risks a growing gap in industrial capacity compared to China. Third, he said, in this era of global smart technology, President Trump wants to lead the nation to become a world center of AI. Fourth, he aims to ensure world peace and prevent future wars, President Lai said. In regard to what the US seeks to achieve, he said he believes these four areas form the core of the Trump administration’s intentions, and that is why President Trump has raised tariffs, demanded that trading partners purchase more American goods, and encouraged friendly and allied nations to invest in the US, all in order to achieve these goals. President Lai indicated that the 32 percent reciprocal tariff poses a critical challenge for Taiwan, and we must treat it seriously. He said that our approach is not confrontation, but negotiation to reduce tariffs, and that we have also agreed to measures such as procurement, investment, resolving non-tariff trade barriers, and addressing origin washing in order to effectively reduce the trade deficit between Taiwan and the US. Of course, he said, through this negotiation process, we also hope to turn challenges into opportunities. The president said that first, we aim to start negotiations from the proposal of zero tariffs and seek to establish a bilateral trade agreement with the US. Second, he went on, we hope to support US reindustrialization and its aim to become a world AI hub through investment, while simultaneously upgrading and transforming Taiwan’s industries, which would help further integrate Taiwan’s industries into the US economic structure, ensuring Taiwan’s long-term development.  President Lai emphasized again that Taiwan’s national industrial strategy is for industries to stay firmly rooted in Taiwan while expanding their global presence and marketing worldwide. He repeated that we have gone from moving westward across the Taiwan Strait, to shifting southbound, to working closer northward with Japan, and now the time is ripe for us to expand eastward by investing in North America. In other words, he said, while we take this challenge seriously to protect national interests and ensure that no industry is sacrificed, we also hope these negotiations will lead to deeper Taiwan-US trade relations through Taiwanese investment in the US, concluding that these are our expectations. The president stated that naturally, the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US will have an impact on Taiwanese industries, so in response, the Taiwanese government has already proposed support measures for affected industries totaling NT$93 billion. In addition, he said, we have outlined broader needs for Taiwan’s long-term development, which will be covered by a special budget proposal of NT$410 billion, noting that this has already been approved by the Executive Yuan and will be submitted to the Legislative Yuan for review. He said that this special budget proposal addresses four main areas: supporting industries, stabilizing employment, protecting people’s livelihoods, and enhancing resilience. As for tariffs on semiconductors, President Lai said, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has committed to investing in the US at the request of its customers. He said he believes that TSMC’s industry chain will follow suit, and that these are concrete actions that are unrelated to tariffs. However, he said, if the US were to invoke Section 232 and impose tariffs on semiconductors or related industries, it would discourage Taiwanese semiconductor and ICT investments in the US, and that we will make this position clear to the US going forward. President Lai indicated that among Taiwan’s exports to the US, there are two main categories: ICT products and electronic components, which together account for 65.4 percent. These are essential to the US, he said, unlike final goods such as cups, tables, or mattresses. He went on to say that what Taiwan sells to the US are the technological products required by AI designers like NVIDIA, AMD, Amazon, Google, and Apple, and that therefore, we will make sure the US understands clearly that we are not exporting end products, but the high-tech components necessary for the US to reindustrialize and become a global AI center. Furthermore, the president said, Taiwan is also willing to increase its defense budget and military procurement. He stated that Taiwan is committed to defending itself and is strongly willing to cooperate with friends and allies to ensure regional peace and stability, and that this is also something President Trump hopes to see. Asked whether TSMC’s fabs overseas could weaken Taiwan’s strategic position as a key hub for semiconductor manufacturing, and whether that could then give other countries fewer incentives to protect Taiwan, President Lai responded by saying that political leaders around the world including Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba and former Prime Ministers Abe, Suga, and Kishida have emphasized, at the G7 and other major international fora, that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are essential for global security and prosperity. In other words, he explained, the international community cares about Taiwan and supports peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait because Taiwan is located in the first island chain in the Indo-Pacific, directly facing China. He pointed out that if Taiwan is not protected, China’s expansionist ambitions will certainly grow, which would impact the current rules-based international order. Thus, he said, the international community willingly cares about Taiwan and supports stability in the Taiwan Strait – that is the reason, and it has no direct connection with TSMC. He noted that after all, TSMC has not made investments in that many countries, stressing that, on that point, it is clear. President Lai said that TSMC’s investments in Japan, Europe, and the US are all natural, normal economic and investment activities. He said that Taiwan is a democratic country whose society is based on the rule of law, so when Taiwanese companies need to invest around the world for business needs, the government will support those investments in principle so long as they do not harm national interests. President Lai said that after TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家) held a press conference with President Trump to announce the investment in the US, Chairman Wei returned to Taiwan to hold a press conference with him at the Presidential Office, where the chairman explained to the Taiwanese public that TSMC’s R&D center will remain in Taiwan and that the facilities it has already committed to investing in here will not change and will not be affected. So, the president explained, to put it another way, TSMC will not be weakened by its investment in the US. He further emphasized that Taiwan has strengths in semiconductor manufacturing and is very willing to work alongside other democratic countries to promote the next stage of global prosperity and development. A question was raised about which side should be chosen between the US and China, under the current perception of a return to the Cold War, with East and West facing off as two opposing blocs. President Lai responded by saying that some experts and scholars describe the current situation as entering a new Cold War era between democratic and authoritarian camps; others assert that the war has already begun, including information warfare, economic and trade wars, and the ongoing wars in Europe – the Russo-Ukrainian War – and the Middle East, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. The president said that these are all matters experts have cautioned about, noting that he is not a historian and so will not attempt to define today’s political situation from an academic standpoint. However, he said, he believes that every country has a choice, which is to say, Taiwan, Japan, or any other nation does not necessarily have to choose between the US and China. What we are deciding, he said, is whether our country will maintain a democratic constitutional system or regress into an authoritarian regime, and this is essentially a choice of values – not merely a choice between two major powers. President Lai said that Taiwan’s situation is different from other countries because we face a direct threat from China. He pointed out that we have experienced military conflicts such as the August 23 Artillery Battle and the Battle of Guningtou – actual wars between the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China. He said that China’s ambition to annex Taiwan has never wavered, and that today, China’s political and military intimidation, as well as internal united front infiltration, are growing increasingly intense. Therefore, he underlined, to defend democracy and sovereignty, protect our free and democratic system, and ensure the safety of our people’s lives and property, Taiwan’s choice is clear. President Lai said that China’s military exercises are not limited to the Taiwan Strait, and include the East China Sea, South China Sea, and even the Sea of Japan, as well as areas around Korea and Australia. Emphasizing that Taiwan, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines are all democratic nations, the president said that Taiwan’s choice is clear, and that he believes Japan also has no other choice. We are all democratic countries, he said, whose people have long pursued the universal values of democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights, and that is what is most important. Regarding the intensifying tensions between the US and China, the president was asked what roles Taiwan and Japan can play. President Lai responded that in his view, Japan is a powerful nation, and he sincerely hopes that Japan can take a leading role amid these changes in the international landscape. He said he believes that countries in the Indo-Pacific region are also willing to respond. He suggested several areas where we can work together: first, democracy and peace; second, innovation and prosperity; and third, justice and sustainability. President Lai stated that in the face of authoritarian threats, we should let peace be our beacon and democracy our compass as we respond to the challenges posed by authoritarian states. Second, he added, as the world enters an era characterized by the comprehensive adoption of smart technologies, Japan and Taiwan should collaborate in the field of innovation to further drive regional prosperity and development. Third, he continued, is justice and sustainability. He explained that because international society still has many issues that need to be resolved, Taiwan and Japan can cooperate for the public good, helping countries in need around the world, and cooperating to address climate change and achieve net-zero transition by 2050. Asked whether he hopes that the US will continue to be a leader in the liberal democratic system, President Lai responded by saying that although the US severed diplomatic ties with the Republic of China, for the past few decades it has assisted Taiwan in various areas such as national defense, security, and countering threats from China, based on the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances. He pointed out that Taiwan has also benefited, directly and indirectly, in terms of politics, democracy, and economic prosperity thanks to the US, and so Taiwan naturally hopes that the US remains strong and continues to lead the world. President Lai said that when the US encounters difficulties, whether financial difficulties, reindustrialization issues, or becoming a global center for AI, and hopes to receive support from its friends and allies to jointly safeguard regional peace and stability, Taiwan is willing to stand together for a common cause. If the US remains strong, he said, that helps Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific region, and the world as a whole. Noting that while the vital role of the US on the global stage has not changed, the president said that after decades of shouldering global responsibilities, it has encountered some issues. Now, it has to make adjustments, he said, stating his firm belief that it will do so swiftly, and quickly resume its leadership role in the world. Asked to comment on remarks he made during his election campaign that he would like to invite China’s President Xi Jinping for bubble tea, President Lai responded that Taiwan is a peace-loving country, and Taiwanese society is inherently kind, and therefore we hope to get along peacefully with China, living in peace and mutual prosperity. So, during his term as vice president, he said, he was expressing the goodwill of Taiwanese society. Noting that while he of course understands that China’s President Xi would have certain difficulties in accepting this, he emphasized that the goodwill of Taiwanese society has always existed. If China reflects on the past two or three decades, he said, it will see that its economy was able to develop with Taiwan as its largest foreign investor. The president explained that every year, 1 to 2 million Taiwanese were starting businesses or investing in China, creating numerous job opportunities and stabilizing Chinese society. While many Taiwanese businesses have profited, he said, Chinese society has benefited even more. He added that every time a natural disaster occurs, if China is in need, Taiwanese always offer donations. Therefore, the president said, he hopes that China can face the reality of the Republic of China’s existence and understand that the people of Taiwan hope to continue living free and democratic lives with respect for human rights. He also expressed hope that China can pay attention to the goodwill of Taiwanese society. He underlined that we have not abandoned the notion that as long as there is parity, dignity, exchange, and cooperation, the goodwill of choosing dialogue over confrontation and exchange over containment will always exist. Asked for his view on the national security reforms in response to China’s espionage activities and infiltration attempts, President Lai said that China’s united front infiltration activities in Taiwan are indeed very serious. He said that China’s ambitions to annex Taiwan rely not only on the use of political and military intimidation, but also on its long-term united front and infiltration activities in Taiwanese society. Recently, he pointed out, the Taiwan High Prosecutors Office of the Ministry of Justice prosecuted 64 spies, which is three times the number in 2021, and in addition to active-duty military personnel, many retired military personnel were also indicted. Moreover, he added, Taiwan also has the Chinese Unification Promotion Party, which has a background in organized crime, Rehabilitation Alliance Party, which was established by retired military personnel, and Republic of China Taiwan Military Government, which is also composed of retired generals. He explained that these are all China’s front organizations, and they plan one day to engage in collaboration within Taiwan, which shows the seriousness of China’s infiltration in Taiwan. Therefore, the president said, in the recent past he convened a high-level national security meeting and proposed 17 response strategies across five areas. He then enumerated the five areas: first, to address China’s threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty; second, to respond to the threat of China’s obscuring the Taiwanese people’s sense of national identity; third, to respond to the threat of China’s infiltrating and recruiting members of the ROC Armed Forces as spies; fourth, to respond to the threat of China’s infiltration of Taiwanese society through societal exchanges and united front work; and fifth, to respond to the threat of China using “integration plans” to draw Taiwan’s young people and Taiwanese businesses into its united front activities. In response to these five major threats, he said, he has proposed 17 response strategies, one of which being to restore the military trial system. He explained that if active-duty military personnel commit military crimes, they must be subject to military trials, and said that this expresses the Taiwanese government’s determination to respond to China’s united front infiltration and the subversion of Taiwan. Responding to the question of which actions Taiwan can take to guard against China’s threats to regional security, President Lai said that many people are worried that the increasingly tense situation may lead to accidental conflict and the outbreak of war. He stated his own view that Taiwan is committed to facing China’s various threats with caution. Taiwan is never the source of these problems, he emphasized, and if there is an accidental conflict and it turns into a full-scale war, it will certainly be a deliberate act by China using an accidental conflict as a pretext. He said that when China expanded its military presence in the East China Sea and South China Sea, the international community did not stop it; when China conducted exercises in the Taiwan Strait, the international community did not take strong measures to prevent this from happening. Now, he continued, China is conducting gray-zone exercises, which are aggressions against not only the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea, but also extending to the Sea of Japan and waters near South Korea. He said that at this moment, Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, and even the US should face these developments candidly and seriously, and we must exhibit unity and cooperation to prevent China’s gray-zone aggression from continuing to expand and prevent China from shifting from a military exercise to combat. If no action is taken now, the president said, the situation may become increasingly serious. Asked about the view of some US analysts who point out that China will have the ability to invade Taiwan around 2027, President Lai responded that Taiwan, as the country on the receiving end of threats and aggression, must plan for the worst and make the best preparations. He recalled a famous saying from the armed forces: “Do not count on the enemy not showing up; count on being ready should it strike.” This is why, he said, he proposed the Four Pillars of Peace action plan. First, he said, we must strengthen our national defense. Second, he added, we must strengthen economic resilience, adding that not only must our economy remain strong, but it must also be resilient, and that we cannot put all our eggs in the same basket, in China, as we have done in the past. Third, he continued, we must stand shoulder to shoulder with friends and allies such as Japan and the US, as well as the democratic community, and we must demonstrate the strength of deterrence to prevent China from making the wrong judgment. Fourth, he emphasized, as long as China treats Taiwan with parity and dignity, Taiwan is willing to conduct exchanges and cooperate with China and seek cross-strait peace and mutual prosperity through exchanges and cooperation. Regarding intensifying US-China confrontation, the president was asked in which areas he thinks Taiwan and Japan should strengthen cooperation; with Japan’s Ishiba administration also being a minority government, the president was asked for his expectations for the Ishiba administration. President Lai said that in the face of rapid and tremendous changes in the political situation, every government faces considerable challenges, especially for minority governments, but the Japanese government led by Prime Minister Ishiba has quite adequately responded with various strategies. Furthermore, he said, Japan is different from Taiwan, explaining that although Japan’s ruling party lacks a majority, political parties in Japan engage in competition domestically while exhibiting unity externally. He said that Taiwan’s situation is more challenging, because the ruling and opposition parties hold different views on the direction of the country, due to differences in national identity. The president expressed his hope that in the future Taiwan and Japan will enjoy even more comprehensive cooperation. He stated that he has always believed that deep historical bonds connect Taiwan and Japan. Over the past several decades, he said, when encountering natural disasters and tragedies, our two nations have assisted each other with mutual care and support. He said that the affection between the people of Taiwan and Japan is like that of a family. Pointing out that both countries face the threat of authoritarianism, he said that we share a mission to safeguard universal values such as democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights. The president said that our two countries should be more open to cooperation in various areas to maintain regional peace and stability as well as to strengthen cooperation in economic and industrial development, such as for semiconductor industry chains and everyday applications of AI, including robots and drones, adding that we can also cooperate on climate change response, such as in hydrogen energy and other strategies. He said our two countries should also continue to strengthen people-to-people exchanges. He then took the opportunity to once again invite our good friends from Japan to visit Taiwan for tourism and learn more about Taiwan, saying that the Taiwanese people wholeheartedly welcome our Japanese friends.  

    Details
    2025-05-09
    President Lai extends congratulations on election of His Holiness Pope Leo XIV  
    Following the successful election of the 267th pope of the Roman Catholic Church, His Holiness Pope Leo XIV, on May 8, President Lai Ching-te extended sincere congratulations on behalf of the people and government of Taiwan, including its Catholic community. The president stated that he looks forward to working with Pope Leo XIV to continue deepening cooperation in the area of humanitarian aid and jointly defend the universal value of religious freedom, expanding and strengthening the alliance between Taiwan and the Vatican. Upon learning of the election results, President Lai directed the Republic of China (Taiwan) Embassy to the Holy See to convey a message of congratulations. In the message, President Lai extended sincere congratulations to Pope Leo XIV on behalf of the people and government of Taiwan, including its Catholic community, expressing confidence that His Holiness will lead the Catholic Church and its 1.4 billion followers worldwide with profound wisdom. President Lai also emphasized that Taiwan looks forward to continuing to work alongside the Holy See in the shared pursuit of peace, justice, religious freedom, solidarity, friendship, and human dignity. This year marks the 83rd anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between Taiwan and the Vatican. Enjoying a strong alliance, Taiwan and the Vatican share such universal values as freedom of religion, respect for human rights, peace, and benevolence, and conduct close exchanges. Taiwan will continue to engage in exchanges and cooperation with the Holy See, further strengthen bilateral relations, and work alongside the Holy See to contribute even more to the world.  

    Details
    2025-05-20
    President Lai interviewed by Nippon Television and Yomiuri TV
    In a recent interview on Nippon Television’s news zero program, President Lai Ching-te responded to questions from host Mr. Sakurai Sho and Yomiuri TV Shanghai Bureau Chief Watanabe Masayo on topics including reflections on his first year in office, cross-strait relations, China’s military threats, Taiwan-United States relations, and Taiwan-Japan relations. The interview was broadcast on the evening of May 19. During the interview, President Lai stated that China intends to change the world’s rules-based international order, and that if Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted. Therefore, he said, Taiwan will strengthen its national defense, prevent war by preparing for war, and achieve the goal of peace. The president also noted that Taiwan’s purpose for developing drones is based on national security and industrial needs, and that Taiwan hopes to collaborate with Japan. He then reiterated that China’s threats are an international problem, and expressed hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war. Following is the text of the questions and the president’s responses: Q: How do you feel as you are about to round out your first year in office? President Lai: When I was young, I was determined to practice medicine and save lives. When I left medicine to go into politics, I was determined to transform Taiwan. And when I was sworn in as president on May 20 last year, I was determined to strengthen the nation. Time flies, and it has already been a year. Although the process has been very challenging, I am deeply honored to be a part of it. I am also profoundly grateful to our citizens for allowing me the opportunity to give back to our country. The future will certainly be full of more challenges, but I will do everything I can to unite the people and continue strengthening the nation. That is how I am feeling now. Q: We are now coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and over this period, we have often heard that conflict between Taiwan and the mainland is imminent. Do you personally believe that a cross-strait conflict could happen? President Lai: The international community is very much aware that China intends to replace the US and change the world’s rules-based international order, and annexing Taiwan is just the first step. So, as China’s military power grows stronger, some members of the international community are naturally on edge about whether a cross-strait conflict will break out. The international community must certainly do everything in its power to avoid a conflict in the Taiwan Strait; there is too great a cost. Besides causing direct disasters to both Taiwan and China, the impact on the global economy would be even greater, with estimated losses of US$10 trillion from war alone – that is roughly 10 percent of the global GDP. Additionally, 20 percent of global shipping passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, so if a conflict breaks out in the strait, other countries including Japan and Korea would suffer a grave impact. For Japan and Korea, a quarter of external transit passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, and a third of the various energy resources and minerals shipped back from other countries pass through said areas. If Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted, and therefore conflict in the Taiwan Strait must be avoided. Such a conflict is indeed avoidable. I am very thankful to Prime Minister of Japan Ishiba Shigeru and former Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo, Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida Fumio, as well as US President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden, and the other G7 leaders, for continuing to emphasize at international venues that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are essential components for global security and prosperity. When everyone in the global democratic community works together, stacking up enough strength to make China’s objectives unattainable or to make the cost of invading Taiwan too high for it to bear, a conflict in the strait can naturally be avoided. Q: As you said, President Lai, maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is also very important for other countries. How can war be avoided? What sort of countermeasures is Taiwan prepared to take to prevent war? President Lai: As Mr. Sakurai mentioned earlier, we are coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII. There are many lessons we can take from that war. First is that peace is priceless, and war has no winners. From the tragedies of WWII, there are lessons that humanity should learn. We must pursue peace, and not start wars blindly, as that would be a major disaster for humanity. In other words, we must be determined to safeguard peace. The second lesson is that we cannot be complacent toward authoritarian powers. If you give them an inch, they will take a mile. They will keep growing, and eventually, not only will peace be unattainable, but war will be inevitable. The third lesson is why WWII ended: It ended because different groups joined together in solidarity. Taiwan, Japan, and the Indo-Pacific region are all directly subjected to China’s threats, so we hope to be able to join together in cooperation. This is why we proposed the Four Pillars of Peace action plan. First, we will strengthen our national defense. Second, we will strengthen economic resilience. Third is standing shoulder to shoulder with the democratic community to demonstrate the strength of deterrence. Fourth is that as long as China treats Taiwan with parity and dignity, Taiwan is willing to conduct exchanges and cooperate with China, and seek peace and mutual prosperity. These four pillars can help us avoid war and achieve peace. That is to say, Taiwan hopes to achieve peace through strength, prevent war by preparing for war, keeping war from happening and pursuing the goal of peace. Q: Regarding drones, everyone knows that recently, Taiwan has been actively researching, developing, and introducing drones. Why do you need to actively research, develop, and introduce new drones at this time? President Lai: This is for two purposes. The first is to meet national security needs. The second is to meet industrial development needs. Because Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines are all part of the first island chain, and we are all democratic nations, we cannot be like an authoritarian country like China, which has an unlimited national defense budget. In this kind of situation, island nations such as Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines should leverage their own technologies to develop national defense methods that are asymmetric and utilize unmanned vehicles. In particular, from the Russo-Ukrainian War, we see that Ukraine has successfully utilized unmanned vehicles to protect itself and prevent Russia from unlimited invasion. In other words, the Russo-Ukrainian War has already proven the importance of drones. Therefore, the first purpose of developing drones is based on national security needs. Second, the world has already entered the era of smart technology. Whether generative, agentic, or physical, AI will continue to develop. In the future, cars and ships will also evolve into unmanned vehicles and unmanned boats, and there will be unmanned factories. Drones will even be able to assist with postal deliveries, or services like Uber, Uber Eats, and foodpanda, or agricultural irrigation and pesticide spraying. Therefore, in the future era of comprehensive smart technology, developing unmanned vehicles is a necessity. Taiwan, based on industrial needs, is actively planning the development of drones and unmanned vehicles. I would like to take this opportunity to express Taiwan’s hope to collaborate with Japan in the unmanned vehicle industry. Just as we do in the semiconductor industry, where Japan has raw materials, equipment, and technology, and Taiwan has wafer manufacturing, our two countries can cooperate. Japan is a technological power, and Taiwan also has significant technological strengths. If Taiwan and Japan work together, we will not only be able to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and security in the Indo-Pacific region, but it will also be very helpful for the industrial development of both countries. Q: The drones you just described probably include examples from the Russo-Ukrainian War. Taiwan and China are separated by the Taiwan Strait. Do our drones need to have cross-sea flight capabilities? President Lai: Taiwan does not intend to counterattack the mainland, and does not intend to invade any country. Taiwan’s drones are meant to protect our own nation and territory. Q: Former President Biden previously stated that US forces would assist Taiwan’s defense in the event of an attack. President Trump, however, has yet to clearly state that the US would help defend Taiwan. Do you think that in such an event, the US would help defend Taiwan? Or is Taiwan now trying to persuade the US? President Lai: Former President Biden and President Trump have answered questions from reporters. Although their responses were different, strong cooperation with Taiwan under the Biden administration has continued under the Trump administration; there has been no change. During President Trump’s first term, cooperation with Taiwan was broader and deeper compared to former President Barack Obama’s terms. After former President Biden took office, cooperation with Taiwan increased compared to President Trump’s first term. Now, during President Trump’s second term, cooperation with Taiwan is even greater than under former President Biden. Taiwan-US cooperation continues to grow stronger, and has not changed just because President Trump and former President Biden gave different responses to reporters. Furthermore, the Trump administration publicly stated that in the future, the US will shift its strategic focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. The US secretary of defense even publicly stated that the primary mission of the US is to prevent China from invading Taiwan, maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, and thus maintain world peace. There is a saying in Taiwan that goes, “Help comes most to those who help themselves.” Before asking friends and allies for assistance in facing threats from China, Taiwan must first be determined and prepared to defend itself. This is Taiwan’s principle, and we are working in this direction, making all the necessary preparations to safeguard the nation. Q: I would like to ask you a question about Taiwan-Japan relations. After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, you made an appeal to give Japan a great deal of assistance and care. In particular, you visited Sendai to offer condolences. Later, you also expressed condolences and concern after the earthquakes in Aomori and Kumamoto. What are your expectations for future Taiwan-Japan exchanges and development? President Lai: I come from Tainan, and my constituency is in Tainan. Tainan has very deep ties with Japan, and of course, Taiwan also has deep ties with Japan. However, among Taiwan’s 22 counties and cities, Tainan has the deepest relationship with Japan. I sincerely hope that both of you and your teams will have an opportunity to visit Tainan. I will introduce Tainan’s scenery, including architecture from the era of Japanese rule, Tainan’s cuisine, and unique aspects of Tainan society, and you can also see lifestyles and culture from the Showa era.  The Wushantou Reservoir in Tainan was completed by engineer Mr. Hatta Yoichi from Kanazawa, Japan and the team he led to Tainan after he graduated from then-Tokyo Imperial University. It has nearly a century of history and is still in use today. This reservoir, along with the 16,000-km-long Chianan Canal, transformed the 150,000-hectare Chianan Plain into Taiwan’s premier rice-growing area. It was that foundation in agriculture that enabled Taiwan to develop industry and the technology sector of today. The reservoir continues to supply water to Tainan Science Park. It is used by residents of Tainan, the agricultural sector, and industry, and even the technology sector in Xinshi Industrial Park, as well as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Because of this, the people of Tainan are deeply grateful for Mr. Hatta and very friendly toward the people of Japan. A major earthquake, the largest in 50 years, struck Tainan on February 6, 2016, resulting in significant casualties. As mayor of Tainan at the time, I was extremely grateful to then-Prime Minister Abe, who sent five Japanese officials to the disaster site in Tainan the day after the earthquake. They were very thoughtful and asked what kind of assistance we needed from the Japanese government. They offered to provide help based on what we needed. I was deeply moved, as former Prime Minister Abe showed such care, going beyond the formality of just sending supplies that we may or may not have actually needed. Instead, the officials asked what we needed and then provided assistance based on those needs, which really moved me. Similarly, when the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 or the later Kumamoto earthquakes struck, the people of Tainan, under my leadership, naturally and dutifully expressed their support. Even earlier, when central Taiwan was hit by a major earthquake in 1999, Japan was the first country to deploy a rescue team to the disaster area. On February 6, 2018, after a major earthquake in Hualien, former Prime Minister Abe appeared in a video holding up a message of encouragement he had written in calligraphy saying “Remain strong, Taiwan.” All of Taiwan was deeply moved. Over the years, Taiwan and Japan have supported each other when earthquakes struck, and have forged bonds that are family-like, not just neighborly. This is truly valuable. In the future, I hope Taiwan and Japan can be like brothers, and that the peoples of Taiwan and Japan can treat one another like family. If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem; if Japan has a problem, then Taiwan has a problem. By caring for and helping each other, we can face various challenges and difficulties, and pursue a brighter future. Q: President Lai, you just used the phrase “If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem.” In the event that China attempts to invade Taiwan by force, what kind of response measures would you hope the US military and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces take? President Lai: As I just mentioned, annexing Taiwan is only China’s first step. Its ultimate objective is to change the rules-based international order. That being the case, China’s threats are an international problem. So, I would very much hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war – prevention, after all, is more important than cure.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: President Lai meets and hosts luncheon for delegation led by Governor Lourdes A. Leon Guerrero of Guam

    Source: Republic of China Taiwan

    Details
    2025-05-27
    President Lai meets delegation from European Parliament
    On the morning of May 27, President Lai Ching-te met with a delegation from the European Parliament. In remarks, President Lai thanked the European Parliament for continuing to pay close attention to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and voice support for Taiwan. The president expressed hope for an even closer relationship and diversified cooperation between Taiwan and the European Union. The president said that Taiwan and the EU can work together in such areas as semiconductors, AI, and green energy to create more resilient supply chains for global democracies and contribute to global prosperity and development. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: I warmly welcome our guests to the Presidential Office. After being elected last year, MEPs Reinis Pozņaks and Beatrice Timgren are making their first visits to Taiwan, demonstrating support for Taiwan through concrete action. On behalf of the people of Taiwan, I extend my sincerest welcome and appreciation. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank the European Parliament for continuing to pay close attention to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Just last month, the European Parliament adopted resolutions with regard to annual reports on the implementation of the European Union’s Common Foreign and Security Policy and Common Security and Defence Policy. These resolutions reaffirmed the EU’s steadfast commitment to maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. The European Parliament also condemned China for continuing to take provocative military actions against Taiwan and emphasized that Taiwan is a key democratic partner in the Indo-Pacific region. It called on the EU and its member states to continue working closely with Taiwan to strengthen economic, trade, and investment ties. Once again, I thank the European Parliament for voicing support for Taiwan. Just as MEPs Pozņaks and Timgren are visiting Taiwan to strengthen Taiwan-EU exchanges, our Minister of Economic Affairs Kuo Jyh-huei (郭智輝) also led a delegation to Europe last year, marking the first in-person dialogue between high-ranking economic and trade officials of Taiwan and the EU. Moving ahead, we look forward to bringing Taiwan-EU ties even closer and to diversifying our cooperation. The EU is Taiwan’s largest source of foreign investment. Both sides are highly complementary in such areas as semiconductors, AI, and green energy. Through our joint efforts, we can create more resilient supply chains for global democracies and further contribute to global prosperity and development. Looking ahead, I hope that MEPs Pozņaks and Timgren will continue to make the case in the European Parliament for the signing of a Taiwan-EU economic partnership agreement. This would not only yield mutually beneficial development, but also consolidate economic security and boost international competitiveness for both sides. In closing, I am sure that you will gain a deeper understanding of Taiwan through this visit. Please feel welcome to come back as often as possible as we continue to elevate Taiwan-EU ties.  MEP Pozņaks then delivered remarks, saying that it is a great honor to be here and thanking everybody involved in arranging this trip that allows them the opportunity to better know Taiwan. He added that it is definitely not the last time they will be here, as Taiwan is a very beautiful country. MEP Pozņaks mentioned that he comes from Latvia, and despite their being on the other side of the world, they know how the Taiwanese people feel, because they also have a big neighbor who is claiming that Latvia belongs to them. Unfortunately, he said, there is already war in Europe, but he is confident that their situation is similar to Taiwan’s, adding that they have a neighbor who uses disinformation attacks. MEP Pozņaks said that we live in very challenging times, and that our choices will define the future of the world, asking whether it will be a world where the rule of law prevails or where physical power and aggression succeeds. Coming from a small country, he said he clearly understands that for them there is no other possibility; they must protect the world where the rule of law prevails. That is why now, he emphasized, it is very crucial for all democracies around the world to stick together to protect our freedoms, values, and democracy. MEP Timgren then delivered remarks, thanking President Lai for meeting with them and saying it is a big honor. Noting that they arrived here two days ago and that while she really loves Taiwan, its food, and the good weather, she stated that the reason they are here is because of the values that we share, our good relationships, and solidarity with other democratic countries in the world, which is important for them in Europe and in Sweden. MEP Timgren, referring to MEP Pozņaks’s earlier remarks, said that they face a big threat from Russia that is discernible even in the European Parliament. Actually, she pointed out, there is a war inside Europe that shows us how important it is that we support one another. She said that the Russian people thought it would be easy to take over Ukraine, but it was not, because all European countries stepped up and provided weapons and support. And that is why, MEP Timgren said, it is important that democratic countries maintain good relationships and let China and Russia see that we have good relationships, because a part of defense is solidarity. In closing, she expressed her gratitude for having the honor to be here in this beautiful country.

    Details
    2025-05-20
    President Lai hosts state banquet for President Surangel Whipps Jr. of Republic of Palau
    On the evening of May 20, President Lai Ching-te, accompanied by Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao, hosted a state banquet at the Presidential Office in honor of President Surangel Whipps Jr. of the Republic of Palau and his wife. In remarks, President Lai said that he looks forward to working closely with President Whipps to promote tourism exchanges and sports cooperation so that Taiwan and Palau shine brightly together on the international stage. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: It is a pleasure to host this banquet tonight at the Presidential Office for President Whipps, First Lady Valerie Whipps, and the esteemed members of their delegation. Welcome to Taiwan. During my trips to Palau in 2022 and last year, President and First Lady Whipps received me with great hospitality. Wearing my island shirt, I enjoyed a very friendly reception from the people of Palau. It felt warm and friendly, just like being welcomed back home. The first time I visited Palau, President Whipps and I piloted a boat to the Milky Way lagoon. We both tried volcanic mud facial masks. We also fished together and enjoyed the breeze as we walked on the beach. Last year, on my second visit to Palau, I was honored to be invited to address the National Congress. I also observed the results of the close bilateral cooperation between our two nations. Due to its world-famous ocean scenery, Palau is sometimes referred to as “God’s aquarium.” And it is even possible to snorkel with sharks. It leaves a deep impression. Nothing compares to seeing Palau firsthand. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan and Palau launched a travel bubble that created a safe means of travel. Now, with the pandemic behind us, I hope that even more Taiwanese can tour Palau and gain a greater understanding of our diplomatic ally. In addition to tourism exchanges, I mentioned on my visit to Palau last year that I hoped Taiwan and Palau could promote sports cooperation by providing training away from home. Next month, Palau will be holding the Pacific Mini Games. And right now, Palau’s national baseball and table tennis teams are holding training sessions here in Taiwan. We will do our utmost to support Palau’s national players and we hope they stand out and achieve outstanding results in the events. I look forward to working closely with President Whipps so that Taiwan and Palau shine brightly together on the international stage. Thank you! Mesulang! President Whipps then delivered remarks, saying that it is truly an honor to be here once again one year after President Lai’s inauguration. Mentioning that this is his first state visit after being reelected to a second term, he said that it is important to be here among friends, and that we are more than friends, we are family. He thanked President Lai for the generous words and, most importantly, Taiwan’s enduring support. He remarked that our relationship continues to get stronger in each passing year. President Whipps said that President Lai’s diplomacy initiative, leadership, and vision deeply resonate with them. Diplomacy must be rooted in our shared values, he said, and an unwavering support for our allies and a commitment to a sustainable, inclusive development are all deeply appreciated by their people. President Whipps emphasized that, as we look into the future and the challenges that we face, from security to climate change, it is so important that we are united. He added that it is important for the world, and especially important for them in Palau, that they stand up for Taiwan, so that Taiwan can participate on international fora that address climate change, security, and health, because they know the world is better when Taiwan has a seat at the table. Mentioning that Palau will host the Pacific Islands Forum next year, President Whipps said that Palau remains committed to working closely with Taiwan to ensure a successful event, and that they will continue to speak up for Taiwan’s indispensable contributions as we stand together against any efforts to silence or isolate democratic partners. President Whipps said that our nations have navigated challenges and emerged stronger, bound by a partnership that is built on trust, respect, and hope for a better world. Whether it is in clean energy, education, smart medicine, or tourism, our shared journey is just beginning, he said, and we are stronger together.  Also in attendance at the banquet were Palauan Minister of State Gustav Aitaro, Minister of Public Infrastructure and Industries Charles Obichang, Minister of Human Resources, Culture, Tourism and Development Ngiraibelas Tmetuchl, Senate Floor Leader Kerai Mariur, House of Delegates Floor Leader Warren Umetaro, High Chief of Ngiwal State Elliot Udui, Governor of Peleliu State Emais Roberts, and Governor of Koror State Eyos Rudimch.

    Details
    2025-05-20
    President Lai and President Surangel S. Whipps, Jr. of Palau hold bilateral talks and witness signing of cooperation agreements  
    On the afternoon of May 20, following a welcome ceremony with military honors for President Surangel S. Whipps, Jr. of the Republic of Palau and his wife, President Lai Ching-te, accompanied by Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao, held bilateral talks with President Whipps at the Presidential Office. The two leaders also jointly witnessed the signing of a technical cooperation agreement and an agreement on diplomatic staff training cooperation. In remarks, President Lai thanked Palau for standing firm in its backing of Taiwan’s international participation as geopolitical tensions continue to increase in the Pacific region. He added that he looks forward to the cooperative ties between Taiwan and Palau continuing to expand into even broader areas, allowing our economies and societies to further progress as we jointly advance peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: I welcome our guests to Taiwan once again. Last year on May 20, President Whipps led a delegation to attend the inauguration ceremony for myself and Vice President Hsiao. I am delighted, on the anniversary of my first year in office, to meet with old friends of Taiwan again, as President Whipps returns for this visit. Taiwan-Palau relations have grown even closer in recent years thanks to the strong support of President Whipps. In 2022, during my term as vice president, I led a delegation to Palau as a demonstration of how our nations were together boosting tourism development as we jointly faced the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. Every time I visit Palau, and every time I meet with President Whipps, I feel very deeply that Taiwan and Palau are like family. We are both maritime nations and share a common Austronesian heritage and culture. We are also staunch partners in upholding such values as freedom, democracy, and respect for human rights. Last December, when I went on my first overseas trip since taking office, one of the nations I visited was Palau. We celebrated the 30th anniversary of Palau’s independence and 25 years of diplomatic relations, underscoring our friendly ties. Taiwan and Palau enjoy close exchanges and cooperation in a range of areas, including climate change, education, agriculture and fisheries, healthcare, humanitarian assistance, sports, and culture. After this meeting, President Whipps and I will witness the signing of a technical cooperation agreement and an agreement on diplomatic staff training cooperation, demonstrating once again our diverse collaboration and strong friendship. I believe that by working together, Taiwan and Palau can contribute to each other’s development and overcome the regional and global challenges we currently face. In particular, as geopolitical tensions continue to increase in the Pacific region, Palau has wisely and courageously upheld democratic values and stood firm in its backing of Taiwan’s international participation. Palau has never stopped voicing support for Taiwan, including at the United Nations General Assembly, the World Health Organization, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties, and the UN Ocean Conference. We have been deeply moved by this support. I thank President Whipps again for his high regard and support for Taiwan. I look forward to the cooperative ties between our nations continuing to expand into even broader areas. This will allow our economies and societies to further progress as we jointly advance peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. President Whipps then delivered remarks, saying that it is a great honor for him to be here, standing in this historic place – a symbol of strength, resilience, and the democratic spirit of the Taiwanese people. On behalf of the government of Palau, President Whipps extended heartfelt gratitude to President Lai and the people of Taiwan for the warm welcome and gracious hospitality toward him and his delegation. President Whipps then extended sincere thanks for President Lai’s visit to Palau in December – his second visit to Palau – and for having Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) attend his inauguration as a special envoy. He added that this also marks his third visit to Taiwan since President Lai took office, saying that this demonstrates the strength of our growing relationship. President Whipps indicated that the increased engagements and numerous entrepreneurs that President Lai has brought from Taiwan to Palau have resulted in fruitful visits, and that President Lai’s leadership represents hope, unity, and continued advancement of democracy and freedom, not only for Taiwan, but for the broader Indo-Pacific region. President Whipps went on to say that this visit to Taiwan reaffirms our deep friendship and shared values between our two nations. He emphasized that Palau and Taiwan are bound not by proximity, but by purpose, in that both are island nations and believe in human dignity, the rule of law, and the right of our people to determine their own futures. President Whipps stated that although we are celebrating 26 years of diplomatic relations, Taiwan has been a steadfast partner of Palau for decades, and that one of the MOUs they are signing further extends the relationship that began in December of 1984. From healthcare and medical missions, to education, agriculture, renewable energy, infrastructure, the private sector, tourism development, and climate resilience, he said, our cooperation has improved lives and strengthened our communities. The president also indicated that during the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan stood with Palau, noting that both sides began the tourism bubble, and that President Lai came to Palau to reopen the two weekly direct flights that have now been increased to four. That solidarity will never be forgotten, he said. As the world faces growing uncertainty and complex challenges from climate change to global tensions, President Whipps said, this friendship becomes even more vital. The president concluded his remarks by expressing hope that both nations continue to stand together, work together, and advocate together for peace, prosperity, and for the right of small nations to be seen, heard, and respected. After the bilateral talks, President Lai and President Whipps witnessed the signing of the technical cooperation agreement and the agreement on diplomatic staff training cooperation by Minister Lin and Palauan Minister of State Gustav Aitaro. The delegation also included Palauan Minister of Public Infrastructure and Industries Charles Obichang, Minister of Human Resources, Culture, Tourism and Development Ngiraibelas Tmetuchl, Senate Floor Leader Kerai Mariur, House of Delegates Floor Leader Warren Umetaro, High Chief of Ngiwal State Elliot Udui, Governor of Peleliu State Emais Roberts, and Governor of Koror State Eyos Rudimch.  

    Details
    2025-05-20
    President Lai interviewed by Nippon Television and Yomiuri TV
    In a recent interview on Nippon Television’s news zero program, President Lai Ching-te responded to questions from host Mr. Sakurai Sho and Yomiuri TV Shanghai Bureau Chief Watanabe Masayo on topics including reflections on his first year in office, cross-strait relations, China’s military threats, Taiwan-United States relations, and Taiwan-Japan relations. The interview was broadcast on the evening of May 19. During the interview, President Lai stated that China intends to change the world’s rules-based international order, and that if Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted. Therefore, he said, Taiwan will strengthen its national defense, prevent war by preparing for war, and achieve the goal of peace. The president also noted that Taiwan’s purpose for developing drones is based on national security and industrial needs, and that Taiwan hopes to collaborate with Japan. He then reiterated that China’s threats are an international problem, and expressed hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war. Following is the text of the questions and the president’s responses: Q: How do you feel as you are about to round out your first year in office? President Lai: When I was young, I was determined to practice medicine and save lives. When I left medicine to go into politics, I was determined to transform Taiwan. And when I was sworn in as president on May 20 last year, I was determined to strengthen the nation. Time flies, and it has already been a year. Although the process has been very challenging, I am deeply honored to be a part of it. I am also profoundly grateful to our citizens for allowing me the opportunity to give back to our country. The future will certainly be full of more challenges, but I will do everything I can to unite the people and continue strengthening the nation. That is how I am feeling now. Q: We are now coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and over this period, we have often heard that conflict between Taiwan and the mainland is imminent. Do you personally believe that a cross-strait conflict could happen? President Lai: The international community is very much aware that China intends to replace the US and change the world’s rules-based international order, and annexing Taiwan is just the first step. So, as China’s military power grows stronger, some members of the international community are naturally on edge about whether a cross-strait conflict will break out. The international community must certainly do everything in its power to avoid a conflict in the Taiwan Strait; there is too great a cost. Besides causing direct disasters to both Taiwan and China, the impact on the global economy would be even greater, with estimated losses of US$10 trillion from war alone – that is roughly 10 percent of the global GDP. Additionally, 20 percent of global shipping passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, so if a conflict breaks out in the strait, other countries including Japan and Korea would suffer a grave impact. For Japan and Korea, a quarter of external transit passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, and a third of the various energy resources and minerals shipped back from other countries pass through said areas. If Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted, and therefore conflict in the Taiwan Strait must be avoided. Such a conflict is indeed avoidable. I am very thankful to Prime Minister of Japan Ishiba Shigeru and former Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo, Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida Fumio, as well as US President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden, and the other G7 leaders, for continuing to emphasize at international venues that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are essential components for global security and prosperity. When everyone in the global democratic community works together, stacking up enough strength to make China’s objectives unattainable or to make the cost of invading Taiwan too high for it to bear, a conflict in the strait can naturally be avoided. Q: As you said, President Lai, maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is also very important for other countries. How can war be avoided? What sort of countermeasures is Taiwan prepared to take to prevent war? President Lai: As Mr. Sakurai mentioned earlier, we are coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII. There are many lessons we can take from that war. First is that peace is priceless, and war has no winners. From the tragedies of WWII, there are lessons that humanity should learn. We must pursue peace, and not start wars blindly, as that would be a major disaster for humanity. In other words, we must be determined to safeguard peace. The second lesson is that we cannot be complacent toward authoritarian powers. If you give them an inch, they will take a mile. They will keep growing, and eventually, not only will peace be unattainable, but war will be inevitable. The third lesson is why WWII ended: It ended because different groups joined together in solidarity. Taiwan, Japan, and the Indo-Pacific region are all directly subjected to China’s threats, so we hope to be able to join together in cooperation. This is why we proposed the Four Pillars of Peace action plan. First, we will strengthen our national defense. Second, we will strengthen economic resilience. Third is standing shoulder to shoulder with the democratic community to demonstrate the strength of deterrence. Fourth is that as long as China treats Taiwan with parity and dignity, Taiwan is willing to conduct exchanges and cooperate with China, and seek peace and mutual prosperity. These four pillars can help us avoid war and achieve peace. That is to say, Taiwan hopes to achieve peace through strength, prevent war by preparing for war, keeping war from happening and pursuing the goal of peace. Q: Regarding drones, everyone knows that recently, Taiwan has been actively researching, developing, and introducing drones. Why do you need to actively research, develop, and introduce new drones at this time? President Lai: This is for two purposes. The first is to meet national security needs. The second is to meet industrial development needs. Because Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines are all part of the first island chain, and we are all democratic nations, we cannot be like an authoritarian country like China, which has an unlimited national defense budget. In this kind of situation, island nations such as Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines should leverage their own technologies to develop national defense methods that are asymmetric and utilize unmanned vehicles. In particular, from the Russo-Ukrainian War, we see that Ukraine has successfully utilized unmanned vehicles to protect itself and prevent Russia from unlimited invasion. In other words, the Russo-Ukrainian War has already proven the importance of drones. Therefore, the first purpose of developing drones is based on national security needs. Second, the world has already entered the era of smart technology. Whether generative, agentic, or physical, AI will continue to develop. In the future, cars and ships will also evolve into unmanned vehicles and unmanned boats, and there will be unmanned factories. Drones will even be able to assist with postal deliveries, or services like Uber, Uber Eats, and foodpanda, or agricultural irrigation and pesticide spraying. Therefore, in the future era of comprehensive smart technology, developing unmanned vehicles is a necessity. Taiwan, based on industrial needs, is actively planning the development of drones and unmanned vehicles. I would like to take this opportunity to express Taiwan’s hope to collaborate with Japan in the unmanned vehicle industry. Just as we do in the semiconductor industry, where Japan has raw materials, equipment, and technology, and Taiwan has wafer manufacturing, our two countries can cooperate. Japan is a technological power, and Taiwan also has significant technological strengths. If Taiwan and Japan work together, we will not only be able to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and security in the Indo-Pacific region, but it will also be very helpful for the industrial development of both countries. Q: The drones you just described probably include examples from the Russo-Ukrainian War. Taiwan and China are separated by the Taiwan Strait. Do our drones need to have cross-sea flight capabilities? President Lai: Taiwan does not intend to counterattack the mainland, and does not intend to invade any country. Taiwan’s drones are meant to protect our own nation and territory. Q: Former President Biden previously stated that US forces would assist Taiwan’s defense in the event of an attack. President Trump, however, has yet to clearly state that the US would help defend Taiwan. Do you think that in such an event, the US would help defend Taiwan? Or is Taiwan now trying to persuade the US? President Lai: Former President Biden and President Trump have answered questions from reporters. Although their responses were different, strong cooperation with Taiwan under the Biden administration has continued under the Trump administration; there has been no change. During President Trump’s first term, cooperation with Taiwan was broader and deeper compared to former President Barack Obama’s terms. After former President Biden took office, cooperation with Taiwan increased compared to President Trump’s first term. Now, during President Trump’s second term, cooperation with Taiwan is even greater than under former President Biden. Taiwan-US cooperation continues to grow stronger, and has not changed just because President Trump and former President Biden gave different responses to reporters. Furthermore, the Trump administration publicly stated that in the future, the US will shift its strategic focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. The US secretary of defense even publicly stated that the primary mission of the US is to prevent China from invading Taiwan, maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, and thus maintain world peace. There is a saying in Taiwan that goes, “Help comes most to those who help themselves.” Before asking friends and allies for assistance in facing threats from China, Taiwan must first be determined and prepared to defend itself. This is Taiwan’s principle, and we are working in this direction, making all the necessary preparations to safeguard the nation. Q: I would like to ask you a question about Taiwan-Japan relations. After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, you made an appeal to give Japan a great deal of assistance and care. In particular, you visited Sendai to offer condolences. Later, you also expressed condolences and concern after the earthquakes in Aomori and Kumamoto. What are your expectations for future Taiwan-Japan exchanges and development? President Lai: I come from Tainan, and my constituency is in Tainan. Tainan has very deep ties with Japan, and of course, Taiwan also has deep ties with Japan. However, among Taiwan’s 22 counties and cities, Tainan has the deepest relationship with Japan. I sincerely hope that both of you and your teams will have an opportunity to visit Tainan. I will introduce Tainan’s scenery, including architecture from the era of Japanese rule, Tainan’s cuisine, and unique aspects of Tainan society, and you can also see lifestyles and culture from the Showa era.  The Wushantou Reservoir in Tainan was completed by engineer Mr. Hatta Yoichi from Kanazawa, Japan and the team he led to Tainan after he graduated from then-Tokyo Imperial University. It has nearly a century of history and is still in use today. This reservoir, along with the 16,000-km-long Chianan Canal, transformed the 150,000-hectare Chianan Plain into Taiwan’s premier rice-growing area. It was that foundation in agriculture that enabled Taiwan to develop industry and the technology sector of today. The reservoir continues to supply water to Tainan Science Park. It is used by residents of Tainan, the agricultural sector, and industry, and even the technology sector in Xinshi Industrial Park, as well as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Because of this, the people of Tainan are deeply grateful for Mr. Hatta and very friendly toward the people of Japan. A major earthquake, the largest in 50 years, struck Tainan on February 6, 2016, resulting in significant casualties. As mayor of Tainan at the time, I was extremely grateful to then-Prime Minister Abe, who sent five Japanese officials to the disaster site in Tainan the day after the earthquake. They were very thoughtful and asked what kind of assistance we needed from the Japanese government. They offered to provide help based on what we needed. I was deeply moved, as former Prime Minister Abe showed such care, going beyond the formality of just sending supplies that we may or may not have actually needed. Instead, the officials asked what we needed and then provided assistance based on those needs, which really moved me. Similarly, when the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 or the later Kumamoto earthquakes struck, the people of Tainan, under my leadership, naturally and dutifully expressed their support. Even earlier, when central Taiwan was hit by a major earthquake in 1999, Japan was the first country to deploy a rescue team to the disaster area. On February 6, 2018, after a major earthquake in Hualien, former Prime Minister Abe appeared in a video holding up a message of encouragement he had written in calligraphy saying “Remain strong, Taiwan.” All of Taiwan was deeply moved. Over the years, Taiwan and Japan have supported each other when earthquakes struck, and have forged bonds that are family-like, not just neighborly. This is truly valuable. In the future, I hope Taiwan and Japan can be like brothers, and that the peoples of Taiwan and Japan can treat one another like family. If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem; if Japan has a problem, then Taiwan has a problem. By caring for and helping each other, we can face various challenges and difficulties, and pursue a brighter future. Q: President Lai, you just used the phrase “If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem.” In the event that China attempts to invade Taiwan by force, what kind of response measures would you hope the US military and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces take? President Lai: As I just mentioned, annexing Taiwan is only China’s first step. Its ultimate objective is to change the rules-based international order. That being the case, China’s threats are an international problem. So, I would very much hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war – prevention, after all, is more important than cure.

    Details
    2025-05-13
    President Lai interviewed by Japan’s Nikkei  
    In a recent interview with Japan’s Nikkei, President Lai Ching-te responded to questions regarding Taiwan-Japan and Taiwan-United States relations, cross-strait relations, the semiconductor industry, and the international economic and trade landscape. The interview was published by Nikkei on May 13. President Lai indicated that Nikkei, Inc. is a global news organization that has received significant recognition both domestically and internationally, and that he is deeply honored to be interviewed by Nikkei and grateful for their invitation. The president said that he would like to take this rare opportunity to thank Japan’s government, National Diet, society, and public for their longstanding support for Taiwan. Noting that current Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and former Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo, Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida Fumio have all strongly supported Taiwan, he said that the peoples of Taiwan and Japan also have a deep mutual affection, and that through the interview, he hopes to enhance the bilateral relationship between Taiwan and Japan, deepen the affection between our peoples, and foster more future cooperation to promote prosperity and development in both countries. In response to questions raised on the free trade system and the recent tariff war, President Lai indicated that over the past few decades, the free economy headed by the Western world and led by the US has brought economic prosperity and political stability to Taiwan and Japan. At the same time, he said, we have also learned or followed many Western values. The president said he believes that Taiwan and Japan are exemplary students, but some countries are not. Therefore, he said, the biggest crisis right now is China, which exploits the free trade system to engage in plagiarism and counterfeiting, infringe on intellectual property rights, and even provide massive government subsidies that facilitate the dumping of low-priced goods worldwide, which has a major impact on many countries including Japan and Taiwan. If this kind of unfair trade is not resolved, he said, the stable societies and economic prosperity we have painstakingly built over decades, as well as some of the values we pursue, could be destroyed. Therefore, President Lai said he thinks it is worthwhile for us to observe the recent willingness of the US to address unfair trade, and if necessary, offer assistance. President Lai emphasized that the national strategic plan for Taiwanese industries is for them to be rooted in Taiwan while expanding their global presence and marketing worldwide. Therefore, he said, while the 32 percent tariff increase imposed by the US on Taiwan is indeed a major challenge, we are willing to address it seriously and find opportunities within that challenge, making Taiwan’s strategic plan for industry even more comprehensive. When asked about Taiwan’s trade arrangements, President Lai indicated that in 2010 China accounted for 83.8 percent of Taiwan’s outbound investment, but last year it accounted for only 7.5 percent. In 2020, he went on, 43.9 percent of Taiwan’s exports went to China, but that figure dropped to 31.7 percent in 2024. The president said that we have systematically transferred investments from Taiwanese enterprises to Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US. Therefore, he said, last year Taiwan’s largest outbound investment was in the US, accounting for roughly 40 percent of the total. Nevertheless, only 23.4 percent of Taiwanese products were sold to the US, with 76.6 percent sold to places other than the US, he said.  The president emphasized that we don’t want to put all our eggs in one basket, and hope to establish a global presence. Under these circumstances, he said, Taiwan is very eager to cooperate with Japan. President Lai stated that at this moment, the Indo-Pacific and international community really need Japan’s leadership, especially to make the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) excel in its functions, and also requested Japan to support Taiwan’s CPTPP accession. The president said that Taiwan hopes to sign an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan to build closer ties in economic trade and promote further investment, and that we also hope to strengthen relations with the European Union, and even other regions. Currently, he said, we are proposing an initiative on global semiconductor supply chain partnerships for democracies, because the semiconductor industry is an ecosystem. The president raised the example that Japan has materials, equipment, and technology; the US has IC design and marketing; Taiwan has production and manufacturing; and the Netherlands excels in equipment, saying we therefore hope to leverage Taiwan’s advantages in production and manufacturing to connect the democratic community and establish a global non-red supply chain for semiconductors, ensuring further world prosperity and development in the future, and ensuring that free trade can continue to function without being affected by dumping, which would undermine future prosperity and development. The president stated that as we want industries to expand their global presence and market internationally while staying rooted here in Taiwan, having industries rooted in Taiwan involves promoting pay raises for employees, tax cuts, and deregulation, as well as promoting enterprise investment tax credits. He said that we have also proposed Three Major Programs for Investing in Taiwan for Taiwanese enterprises and are actively resolving issues regarding access to water, electricity, land, human resources, and professional talent so that the business community can return to Taiwan to invest, or enterprises in Taiwan can increase their investments. He went on to say that we are also actively signing bilateral investment agreements with friends and allies so that when our companies invest and expand their presence abroad, their rights and interests as investors are ensured.  President Lai mentioned that Taiwan hopes to sign an EPA with Japan, similar to the Taiwan-US Initiative on 21st-Century Trade and the Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue, or the Enhanced Trade Partnership arrangement with the United Kingdom, or similar agreements or memorandums of understanding with Canada and Australia that allow Taiwanese products to be marketed worldwide, concluding that those are our overall arrangements. Looking at the history of Taiwan’s industrial development, President Lai indicated, of course it began in Taiwan, and then moved west to China and south to Southeast Asia. He said that we hope to take this opportunity to strengthen cooperation with Japan to the north, across the Pacific Ocean to the east, and develop the North American market, making Taiwan’s industries even stronger. In other words, he said, while Taiwan sees the current reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US as a kind of challenge, it also views these changes positively. On the topic of pressure from China affecting Taiwan’s participation in international frameworks such as the CPTPP or its signing of an EPA with Japan, President Lai responded that the key point is what kind of attitude we should adopt in viewing China’s acts of oppression. If we act based on our belief in free trade, he said, or on the universal values we pursue – democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights – and also on the understanding that a bilateral trade agreement between Taiwan and Japan would contribute to the economic prosperity and development of both countries, or that Taiwan’s accession to the CPTPP would benefit progress and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region, then he hopes that friends and allies will strongly support us. On the Trump administration’s intentions regarding the reciprocal tariff policy and the possibility of taxing semiconductors, as well as how Taiwan plans to respond, President Lai said that since President Trump took office, he has paid close attention to interviews with both him and his staff. The president said that several of President Trump’s main intentions are: First, he wants to address the US fiscal situation. For example, President Lai said, while the US GDP is about US$29 trillion annually, its national debt stands at US$36 trillion, which is roughly 124 percent of GDP. Second, he went on, annual government spending exceeds US$6.5 trillion, but revenues are only around US$4.5 trillion, resulting in a nearly US$2 trillion deficit each year, about 7 percent of GDP. Third, he said, the US pays nearly US$1.2 trillion in interest annually, which exceeds the US$1 trillion defense budget and accounts for more than 3 percent of GDP. Fourth, President Trump still wants to implement tax cuts, aiming to reduce taxes for 85 percent of Americans, he said, noting that this would cost between US$500 billion and US$1 trillion. These points, President Lai said, illustrate his first goal: solving the fiscal problem. President Lai went on to say that second, the US feels the threat of China and believes that reindustrialization is essential; without reindustrialization, the US risks a growing gap in industrial capacity compared to China. Third, he said, in this era of global smart technology, President Trump wants to lead the nation to become a world center of AI. Fourth, he aims to ensure world peace and prevent future wars, President Lai said. In regard to what the US seeks to achieve, he said he believes these four areas form the core of the Trump administration’s intentions, and that is why President Trump has raised tariffs, demanded that trading partners purchase more American goods, and encouraged friendly and allied nations to invest in the US, all in order to achieve these goals. President Lai indicated that the 32 percent reciprocal tariff poses a critical challenge for Taiwan, and we must treat it seriously. He said that our approach is not confrontation, but negotiation to reduce tariffs, and that we have also agreed to measures such as procurement, investment, resolving non-tariff trade barriers, and addressing origin washing in order to effectively reduce the trade deficit between Taiwan and the US. Of course, he said, through this negotiation process, we also hope to turn challenges into opportunities. The president said that first, we aim to start negotiations from the proposal of zero tariffs and seek to establish a bilateral trade agreement with the US. Second, he went on, we hope to support US reindustrialization and its aim to become a world AI hub through investment, while simultaneously upgrading and transforming Taiwan’s industries, which would help further integrate Taiwan’s industries into the US economic structure, ensuring Taiwan’s long-term development.  President Lai emphasized again that Taiwan’s national industrial strategy is for industries to stay firmly rooted in Taiwan while expanding their global presence and marketing worldwide. He repeated that we have gone from moving westward across the Taiwan Strait, to shifting southbound, to working closer northward with Japan, and now the time is ripe for us to expand eastward by investing in North America. In other words, he said, while we take this challenge seriously to protect national interests and ensure that no industry is sacrificed, we also hope these negotiations will lead to deeper Taiwan-US trade relations through Taiwanese investment in the US, concluding that these are our expectations. The president stated that naturally, the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US will have an impact on Taiwanese industries, so in response, the Taiwanese government has already proposed support measures for affected industries totaling NT$93 billion. In addition, he said, we have outlined broader needs for Taiwan’s long-term development, which will be covered by a special budget proposal of NT$410 billion, noting that this has already been approved by the Executive Yuan and will be submitted to the Legislative Yuan for review. He said that this special budget proposal addresses four main areas: supporting industries, stabilizing employment, protecting people’s livelihoods, and enhancing resilience. As for tariffs on semiconductors, President Lai said, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has committed to investing in the US at the request of its customers. He said he believes that TSMC’s industry chain will follow suit, and that these are concrete actions that are unrelated to tariffs. However, he said, if the US were to invoke Section 232 and impose tariffs on semiconductors or related industries, it would discourage Taiwanese semiconductor and ICT investments in the US, and that we will make this position clear to the US going forward. President Lai indicated that among Taiwan’s exports to the US, there are two main categories: ICT products and electronic components, which together account for 65.4 percent. These are essential to the US, he said, unlike final goods such as cups, tables, or mattresses. He went on to say that what Taiwan sells to the US are the technological products required by AI designers like NVIDIA, AMD, Amazon, Google, and Apple, and that therefore, we will make sure the US understands clearly that we are not exporting end products, but the high-tech components necessary for the US to reindustrialize and become a global AI center. Furthermore, the president said, Taiwan is also willing to increase its defense budget and military procurement. He stated that Taiwan is committed to defending itself and is strongly willing to cooperate with friends and allies to ensure regional peace and stability, and that this is also something President Trump hopes to see. Asked whether TSMC’s fabs overseas could weaken Taiwan’s strategic position as a key hub for semiconductor manufacturing, and whether that could then give other countries fewer incentives to protect Taiwan, President Lai responded by saying that political leaders around the world including Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba and former Prime Ministers Abe, Suga, and Kishida have emphasized, at the G7 and other major international fora, that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are essential for global security and prosperity. In other words, he explained, the international community cares about Taiwan and supports peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait because Taiwan is located in the first island chain in the Indo-Pacific, directly facing China. He pointed out that if Taiwan is not protected, China’s expansionist ambitions will certainly grow, which would impact the current rules-based international order. Thus, he said, the international community willingly cares about Taiwan and supports stability in the Taiwan Strait – that is the reason, and it has no direct connection with TSMC. He noted that after all, TSMC has not made investments in that many countries, stressing that, on that point, it is clear. President Lai said that TSMC’s investments in Japan, Europe, and the US are all natural, normal economic and investment activities. He said that Taiwan is a democratic country whose society is based on the rule of law, so when Taiwanese companies need to invest around the world for business needs, the government will support those investments in principle so long as they do not harm national interests. President Lai said that after TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家) held a press conference with President Trump to announce the investment in the US, Chairman Wei returned to Taiwan to hold a press conference with him at the Presidential Office, where the chairman explained to the Taiwanese public that TSMC’s R&D center will remain in Taiwan and that the facilities it has already committed to investing in here will not change and will not be affected. So, the president explained, to put it another way, TSMC will not be weakened by its investment in the US. He further emphasized that Taiwan has strengths in semiconductor manufacturing and is very willing to work alongside other democratic countries to promote the next stage of global prosperity and development. A question was raised about which side should be chosen between the US and China, under the current perception of a return to the Cold War, with East and West facing off as two opposing blocs. President Lai responded by saying that some experts and scholars describe the current situation as entering a new Cold War era between democratic and authoritarian camps; others assert that the war has already begun, including information warfare, economic and trade wars, and the ongoing wars in Europe – the Russo-Ukrainian War – and the Middle East, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. The president said that these are all matters experts have cautioned about, noting that he is not a historian and so will not attempt to define today’s political situation from an academic standpoint. However, he said, he believes that every country has a choice, which is to say, Taiwan, Japan, or any other nation does not necessarily have to choose between the US and China. What we are deciding, he said, is whether our country will maintain a democratic constitutional system or regress into an authoritarian regime, and this is essentially a choice of values – not merely a choice between two major powers. President Lai said that Taiwan’s situation is different from other countries because we face a direct threat from China. He pointed out that we have experienced military conflicts such as the August 23 Artillery Battle and the Battle of Guningtou – actual wars between the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China. He said that China’s ambition to annex Taiwan has never wavered, and that today, China’s political and military intimidation, as well as internal united front infiltration, are growing increasingly intense. Therefore, he underlined, to defend democracy and sovereignty, protect our free and democratic system, and ensure the safety of our people’s lives and property, Taiwan’s choice is clear. President Lai said that China’s military exercises are not limited to the Taiwan Strait, and include the East China Sea, South China Sea, and even the Sea of Japan, as well as areas around Korea and Australia. Emphasizing that Taiwan, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines are all democratic nations, the president said that Taiwan’s choice is clear, and that he believes Japan also has no other choice. We are all democratic countries, he said, whose people have long pursued the universal values of democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights, and that is what is most important. Regarding the intensifying tensions between the US and China, the president was asked what roles Taiwan and Japan can play. President Lai responded that in his view, Japan is a powerful nation, and he sincerely hopes that Japan can take a leading role amid these changes in the international landscape. He said he believes that countries in the Indo-Pacific region are also willing to respond. He suggested several areas where we can work together: first, democracy and peace; second, innovation and prosperity; and third, justice and sustainability. President Lai stated that in the face of authoritarian threats, we should let peace be our beacon and democracy our compass as we respond to the challenges posed by authoritarian states. Second, he added, as the world enters an era characterized by the comprehensive adoption of smart technologies, Japan and Taiwan should collaborate in the field of innovation to further drive regional prosperity and development. Third, he continued, is justice and sustainability. He explained that because international society still has many issues that need to be resolved, Taiwan and Japan can cooperate for the public good, helping countries in need around the world, and cooperating to address climate change and achieve net-zero transition by 2050. Asked whether he hopes that the US will continue to be a leader in the liberal democratic system, President Lai responded by saying that although the US severed diplomatic ties with the Republic of China, for the past few decades it has assisted Taiwan in various areas such as national defense, security, and countering threats from China, based on the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances. He pointed out that Taiwan has also benefited, directly and indirectly, in terms of politics, democracy, and economic prosperity thanks to the US, and so Taiwan naturally hopes that the US remains strong and continues to lead the world. President Lai said that when the US encounters difficulties, whether financial difficulties, reindustrialization issues, or becoming a global center for AI, and hopes to receive support from its friends and allies to jointly safeguard regional peace and stability, Taiwan is willing to stand together for a common cause. If the US remains strong, he said, that helps Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific region, and the world as a whole. Noting that while the vital role of the US on the global stage has not changed, the president said that after decades of shouldering global responsibilities, it has encountered some issues. Now, it has to make adjustments, he said, stating his firm belief that it will do so swiftly, and quickly resume its leadership role in the world. Asked to comment on remarks he made during his election campaign that he would like to invite China’s President Xi Jinping for bubble tea, President Lai responded that Taiwan is a peace-loving country, and Taiwanese society is inherently kind, and therefore we hope to get along peacefully with China, living in peace and mutual prosperity. So, during his term as vice president, he said, he was expressing the goodwill of Taiwanese society. Noting that while he of course understands that China’s President Xi would have certain difficulties in accepting this, he emphasized that the goodwill of Taiwanese society has always existed. If China reflects on the past two or three decades, he said, it will see that its economy was able to develop with Taiwan as its largest foreign investor. The president explained that every year, 1 to 2 million Taiwanese were starting businesses or investing in China, creating numerous job opportunities and stabilizing Chinese society. While many Taiwanese businesses have profited, he said, Chinese society has benefited even more. He added that every time a natural disaster occurs, if China is in need, Taiwanese always offer donations. Therefore, the president said, he hopes that China can face the reality of the Republic of China’s existence and understand that the people of Taiwan hope to continue living free and democratic lives with respect for human rights. He also expressed hope that China can pay attention to the goodwill of Taiwanese society. He underlined that we have not abandoned the notion that as long as there is parity, dignity, exchange, and cooperation, the goodwill of choosing dialogue over confrontation and exchange over containment will always exist. Asked for his view on the national security reforms in response to China’s espionage activities and infiltration attempts, President Lai said that China’s united front infiltration activities in Taiwan are indeed very serious. He said that China’s ambitions to annex Taiwan rely not only on the use of political and military intimidation, but also on its long-term united front and infiltration activities in Taiwanese society. Recently, he pointed out, the Taiwan High Prosecutors Office of the Ministry of Justice prosecuted 64 spies, which is three times the number in 2021, and in addition to active-duty military personnel, many retired military personnel were also indicted. Moreover, he added, Taiwan also has the Chinese Unification Promotion Party, which has a background in organized crime, Rehabilitation Alliance Party, which was established by retired military personnel, and Republic of China Taiwan Military Government, which is also composed of retired generals. He explained that these are all China’s front organizations, and they plan one day to engage in collaboration within Taiwan, which shows the seriousness of China’s infiltration in Taiwan. Therefore, the president said, in the recent past he convened a high-level national security meeting and proposed 17 response strategies across five areas. He then enumerated the five areas: first, to address China’s threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty; second, to respond to the threat of China’s obscuring the Taiwanese people’s sense of national identity; third, to respond to the threat of China’s infiltrating and recruiting members of the ROC Armed Forces as spies; fourth, to respond to the threat of China’s infiltration of Taiwanese society through societal exchanges and united front work; and fifth, to respond to the threat of China using “integration plans” to draw Taiwan’s young people and Taiwanese businesses into its united front activities. In response to these five major threats, he said, he has proposed 17 response strategies, one of which being to restore the military trial system. He explained that if active-duty military personnel commit military crimes, they must be subject to military trials, and said that this expresses the Taiwanese government’s determination to respond to China’s united front infiltration and the subversion of Taiwan. Responding to the question of which actions Taiwan can take to guard against China’s threats to regional security, President Lai said that many people are worried that the increasingly tense situation may lead to accidental conflict and the outbreak of war. He stated his own view that Taiwan is committed to facing China’s various threats with caution. Taiwan is never the source of these problems, he emphasized, and if there is an accidental conflict and it turns into a full-scale war, it will certainly be a deliberate act by China using an accidental conflict as a pretext. He said that when China expanded its military presence in the East China Sea and South China Sea, the international community did not stop it; when China conducted exercises in the Taiwan Strait, the international community did not take strong measures to prevent this from happening. Now, he continued, China is conducting gray-zone exercises, which are aggressions against not only the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea, but also extending to the Sea of Japan and waters near South Korea. He said that at this moment, Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, and even the US should face these developments candidly and seriously, and we must exhibit unity and cooperation to prevent China’s gray-zone aggression from continuing to expand and prevent China from shifting from a military exercise to combat. If no action is taken now, the president said, the situation may become increasingly serious. Asked about the view of some US analysts who point out that China will have the ability to invade Taiwan around 2027, President Lai responded that Taiwan, as the country on the receiving end of threats and aggression, must plan for the worst and make the best preparations. He recalled a famous saying from the armed forces: “Do not count on the enemy not showing up; count on being ready should it strike.” This is why, he said, he proposed the Four Pillars of Peace action plan. First, he said, we must strengthen our national defense. Second, he added, we must strengthen economic resilience, adding that not only must our economy remain strong, but it must also be resilient, and that we cannot put all our eggs in the same basket, in China, as we have done in the past. Third, he continued, we must stand shoulder to shoulder with friends and allies such as Japan and the US, as well as the democratic community, and we must demonstrate the strength of deterrence to prevent China from making the wrong judgment. Fourth, he emphasized, as long as China treats Taiwan with parity and dignity, Taiwan is willing to conduct exchanges and cooperate with China and seek cross-strait peace and mutual prosperity through exchanges and cooperation. Regarding intensifying US-China confrontation, the president was asked in which areas he thinks Taiwan and Japan should strengthen cooperation; with Japan’s Ishiba administration also being a minority government, the president was asked for his expectations for the Ishiba administration. President Lai said that in the face of rapid and tremendous changes in the political situation, every government faces considerable challenges, especially for minority governments, but the Japanese government led by Prime Minister Ishiba has quite adequately responded with various strategies. Furthermore, he said, Japan is different from Taiwan, explaining that although Japan’s ruling party lacks a majority, political parties in Japan engage in competition domestically while exhibiting unity externally. He said that Taiwan’s situation is more challenging, because the ruling and opposition parties hold different views on the direction of the country, due to differences in national identity. The president expressed his hope that in the future Taiwan and Japan will enjoy even more comprehensive cooperation. He stated that he has always believed that deep historical bonds connect Taiwan and Japan. Over the past several decades, he said, when encountering natural disasters and tragedies, our two nations have assisted each other with mutual care and support. He said that the affection between the people of Taiwan and Japan is like that of a family. Pointing out that both countries face the threat of authoritarianism, he said that we share a mission to safeguard universal values such as democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights. The president said that our two countries should be more open to cooperation in various areas to maintain regional peace and stability as well as to strengthen cooperation in economic and industrial development, such as for semiconductor industry chains and everyday applications of AI, including robots and drones, adding that we can also cooperate on climate change response, such as in hydrogen energy and other strategies. He said our two countries should also continue to strengthen people-to-people exchanges. He then took the opportunity to once again invite our good friends from Japan to visit Taiwan for tourism and learn more about Taiwan, saying that the Taiwanese people wholeheartedly welcome our Japanese friends.  

    Details
    2025-05-20
    President Lai interviewed by Nippon Television and Yomiuri TV
    In a recent interview on Nippon Television’s news zero program, President Lai Ching-te responded to questions from host Mr. Sakurai Sho and Yomiuri TV Shanghai Bureau Chief Watanabe Masayo on topics including reflections on his first year in office, cross-strait relations, China’s military threats, Taiwan-United States relations, and Taiwan-Japan relations. The interview was broadcast on the evening of May 19. During the interview, President Lai stated that China intends to change the world’s rules-based international order, and that if Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted. Therefore, he said, Taiwan will strengthen its national defense, prevent war by preparing for war, and achieve the goal of peace. The president also noted that Taiwan’s purpose for developing drones is based on national security and industrial needs, and that Taiwan hopes to collaborate with Japan. He then reiterated that China’s threats are an international problem, and expressed hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war. Following is the text of the questions and the president’s responses: Q: How do you feel as you are about to round out your first year in office? President Lai: When I was young, I was determined to practice medicine and save lives. When I left medicine to go into politics, I was determined to transform Taiwan. And when I was sworn in as president on May 20 last year, I was determined to strengthen the nation. Time flies, and it has already been a year. Although the process has been very challenging, I am deeply honored to be a part of it. I am also profoundly grateful to our citizens for allowing me the opportunity to give back to our country. The future will certainly be full of more challenges, but I will do everything I can to unite the people and continue strengthening the nation. That is how I am feeling now. Q: We are now coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and over this period, we have often heard that conflict between Taiwan and the mainland is imminent. Do you personally believe that a cross-strait conflict could happen? President Lai: The international community is very much aware that China intends to replace the US and change the world’s rules-based international order, and annexing Taiwan is just the first step. So, as China’s military power grows stronger, some members of the international community are naturally on edge about whether a cross-strait conflict will break out. The international community must certainly do everything in its power to avoid a conflict in the Taiwan Strait; there is too great a cost. Besides causing direct disasters to both Taiwan and China, the impact on the global economy would be even greater, with estimated losses of US$10 trillion from war alone – that is roughly 10 percent of the global GDP. Additionally, 20 percent of global shipping passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, so if a conflict breaks out in the strait, other countries including Japan and Korea would suffer a grave impact. For Japan and Korea, a quarter of external transit passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, and a third of the various energy resources and minerals shipped back from other countries pass through said areas. If Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted, and therefore conflict in the Taiwan Strait must be avoided. Such a conflict is indeed avoidable. I am very thankful to Prime Minister of Japan Ishiba Shigeru and former Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo, Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida Fumio, as well as US President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden, and the other G7 leaders, for continuing to emphasize at international venues that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are essential components for global security and prosperity. When everyone in the global democratic community works together, stacking up enough strength to make China’s objectives unattainable or to make the cost of invading Taiwan too high for it to bear, a conflict in the strait can naturally be avoided. Q: As you said, President Lai, maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is also very important for other countries. How can war be avoided? What sort of countermeasures is Taiwan prepared to take to prevent war? President Lai: As Mr. Sakurai mentioned earlier, we are coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII. There are many lessons we can take from that war. First is that peace is priceless, and war has no winners. From the tragedies of WWII, there are lessons that humanity should learn. We must pursue peace, and not start wars blindly, as that would be a major disaster for humanity. In other words, we must be determined to safeguard peace. The second lesson is that we cannot be complacent toward authoritarian powers. If you give them an inch, they will take a mile. They will keep growing, and eventually, not only will peace be unattainable, but war will be inevitable. The third lesson is why WWII ended: It ended because different groups joined together in solidarity. Taiwan, Japan, and the Indo-Pacific region are all directly subjected to China’s threats, so we hope to be able to join together in cooperation. This is why we proposed the Four Pillars of Peace action plan. First, we will strengthen our national defense. Second, we will strengthen economic resilience. Third is standing shoulder to shoulder with the democratic community to demonstrate the strength of deterrence. Fourth is that as long as China treats Taiwan with parity and dignity, Taiwan is willing to conduct exchanges and cooperate with China, and seek peace and mutual prosperity. These four pillars can help us avoid war and achieve peace. That is to say, Taiwan hopes to achieve peace through strength, prevent war by preparing for war, keeping war from happening and pursuing the goal of peace. Q: Regarding drones, everyone knows that recently, Taiwan has been actively researching, developing, and introducing drones. Why do you need to actively research, develop, and introduce new drones at this time? President Lai: This is for two purposes. The first is to meet national security needs. The second is to meet industrial development needs. Because Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines are all part of the first island chain, and we are all democratic nations, we cannot be like an authoritarian country like China, which has an unlimited national defense budget. In this kind of situation, island nations such as Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines should leverage their own technologies to develop national defense methods that are asymmetric and utilize unmanned vehicles. In particular, from the Russo-Ukrainian War, we see that Ukraine has successfully utilized unmanned vehicles to protect itself and prevent Russia from unlimited invasion. In other words, the Russo-Ukrainian War has already proven the importance of drones. Therefore, the first purpose of developing drones is based on national security needs. Second, the world has already entered the era of smart technology. Whether generative, agentic, or physical, AI will continue to develop. In the future, cars and ships will also evolve into unmanned vehicles and unmanned boats, and there will be unmanned factories. Drones will even be able to assist with postal deliveries, or services like Uber, Uber Eats, and foodpanda, or agricultural irrigation and pesticide spraying. Therefore, in the future era of comprehensive smart technology, developing unmanned vehicles is a necessity. Taiwan, based on industrial needs, is actively planning the development of drones and unmanned vehicles. I would like to take this opportunity to express Taiwan’s hope to collaborate with Japan in the unmanned vehicle industry. Just as we do in the semiconductor industry, where Japan has raw materials, equipment, and technology, and Taiwan has wafer manufacturing, our two countries can cooperate. Japan is a technological power, and Taiwan also has significant technological strengths. If Taiwan and Japan work together, we will not only be able to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and security in the Indo-Pacific region, but it will also be very helpful for the industrial development of both countries. Q: The drones you just described probably include examples from the Russo-Ukrainian War. Taiwan and China are separated by the Taiwan Strait. Do our drones need to have cross-sea flight capabilities? President Lai: Taiwan does not intend to counterattack the mainland, and does not intend to invade any country. Taiwan’s drones are meant to protect our own nation and territory. Q: Former President Biden previously stated that US forces would assist Taiwan’s defense in the event of an attack. President Trump, however, has yet to clearly state that the US would help defend Taiwan. Do you think that in such an event, the US would help defend Taiwan? Or is Taiwan now trying to persuade the US? President Lai: Former President Biden and President Trump have answered questions from reporters. Although their responses were different, strong cooperation with Taiwan under the Biden administration has continued under the Trump administration; there has been no change. During President Trump’s first term, cooperation with Taiwan was broader and deeper compared to former President Barack Obama’s terms. After former President Biden took office, cooperation with Taiwan increased compared to President Trump’s first term. Now, during President Trump’s second term, cooperation with Taiwan is even greater than under former President Biden. Taiwan-US cooperation continues to grow stronger, and has not changed just because President Trump and former President Biden gave different responses to reporters. Furthermore, the Trump administration publicly stated that in the future, the US will shift its strategic focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. The US secretary of defense even publicly stated that the primary mission of the US is to prevent China from invading Taiwan, maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, and thus maintain world peace. There is a saying in Taiwan that goes, “Help comes most to those who help themselves.” Before asking friends and allies for assistance in facing threats from China, Taiwan must first be determined and prepared to defend itself. This is Taiwan’s principle, and we are working in this direction, making all the necessary preparations to safeguard the nation. Q: I would like to ask you a question about Taiwan-Japan relations. After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, you made an appeal to give Japan a great deal of assistance and care. In particular, you visited Sendai to offer condolences. Later, you also expressed condolences and concern after the earthquakes in Aomori and Kumamoto. What are your expectations for future Taiwan-Japan exchanges and development? President Lai: I come from Tainan, and my constituency is in Tainan. Tainan has very deep ties with Japan, and of course, Taiwan also has deep ties with Japan. However, among Taiwan’s 22 counties and cities, Tainan has the deepest relationship with Japan. I sincerely hope that both of you and your teams will have an opportunity to visit Tainan. I will introduce Tainan’s scenery, including architecture from the era of Japanese rule, Tainan’s cuisine, and unique aspects of Tainan society, and you can also see lifestyles and culture from the Showa era.  The Wushantou Reservoir in Tainan was completed by engineer Mr. Hatta Yoichi from Kanazawa, Japan and the team he led to Tainan after he graduated from then-Tokyo Imperial University. It has nearly a century of history and is still in use today. This reservoir, along with the 16,000-km-long Chianan Canal, transformed the 150,000-hectare Chianan Plain into Taiwan’s premier rice-growing area. It was that foundation in agriculture that enabled Taiwan to develop industry and the technology sector of today. The reservoir continues to supply water to Tainan Science Park. It is used by residents of Tainan, the agricultural sector, and industry, and even the technology sector in Xinshi Industrial Park, as well as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Because of this, the people of Tainan are deeply grateful for Mr. Hatta and very friendly toward the people of Japan. A major earthquake, the largest in 50 years, struck Tainan on February 6, 2016, resulting in significant casualties. As mayor of Tainan at the time, I was extremely grateful to then-Prime Minister Abe, who sent five Japanese officials to the disaster site in Tainan the day after the earthquake. They were very thoughtful and asked what kind of assistance we needed from the Japanese government. They offered to provide help based on what we needed. I was deeply moved, as former Prime Minister Abe showed such care, going beyond the formality of just sending supplies that we may or may not have actually needed. Instead, the officials asked what we needed and then provided assistance based on those needs, which really moved me. Similarly, when the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 or the later Kumamoto earthquakes struck, the people of Tainan, under my leadership, naturally and dutifully expressed their support. Even earlier, when central Taiwan was hit by a major earthquake in 1999, Japan was the first country to deploy a rescue team to the disaster area. On February 6, 2018, after a major earthquake in Hualien, former Prime Minister Abe appeared in a video holding up a message of encouragement he had written in calligraphy saying “Remain strong, Taiwan.” All of Taiwan was deeply moved. Over the years, Taiwan and Japan have supported each other when earthquakes struck, and have forged bonds that are family-like, not just neighborly. This is truly valuable. In the future, I hope Taiwan and Japan can be like brothers, and that the peoples of Taiwan and Japan can treat one another like family. If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem; if Japan has a problem, then Taiwan has a problem. By caring for and helping each other, we can face various challenges and difficulties, and pursue a brighter future. Q: President Lai, you just used the phrase “If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem.” In the event that China attempts to invade Taiwan by force, what kind of response measures would you hope the US military and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces take? President Lai: As I just mentioned, annexing Taiwan is only China’s first step. Its ultimate objective is to change the rules-based international order. That being the case, China’s threats are an international problem. So, I would very much hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war – prevention, after all, is more important than cure.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News

  • MIL-OSI China: China activates emergency response to floods in several regions

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    BEIJING, May 27 — China’s flood control authorities on Tuesday activated Level-IV emergency response measures in Jiangxi and Guizhou provinces, as well as the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, in response to heavy rainfall affecting the country’s southern regions.

    The Ministry of Emergency Management said in a statement that Guizhou, areas south of the Yangtze River, and much of southern China are expected to face torrential rains and rainstorms over the next three days, citing forecasts from meteorological authorities.

    This round of rainfall will be the most intense since the beginning of the year, with some regions facing a high risk of disasters due to extreme downpours, according to the statement.

    It added that China’s State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters has dispatched two work teams to guide local flood control efforts.

    The flood control and emergency management authorities have also called for intensified efforts to monitor rainfall and flooding, issue timely alerts, assess risks and hidden dangers, and deploy flood control and emergency rescue supplies in key regions in advance.

    China has a four-tier flood-control emergency response system, with Level I being the highest level.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-Evening Report: The drought is back – we need a new way to help farmers survive tough times

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Linda Botterill, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    Australia in 2025 is living up to Dorothy McKellar’s poetic vision of a country stricken by “drought and flooding rains”.

    The clean up is underway from the deadly floods in the Hunter and mid-north coast regions of New South Wales. At the same time, large swathes of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania are severely drought affected due to some of the lowest rainfall on record.

    Do we have the right support arrangements in place to help farmers and communities survive the current dry period?

    Or is there a better way to help primary producers through the tough times, which are predicted to become more frequent and severe under climate change?

    Managing risk

    Drought is not a natural disaster – at least not according to Australia’s National Drought Policy. In 1989, drought was removed from what are now known as the Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements.

    The decision was made for several reasons, including the high level of expenditure on drought relief in Queensland. The federal finance minister at the time, Peter Walsh, suggested the Queensland government was using the arrangements as a “sort of National Party slush fund to be distributed to National Party toadies and apparatchiks”.

    The more considered reason was that our scientific understanding of the drivers of Australia’s climate, such as El Niño, suggested drought was a normal part of our environment. Since then, climate modelling points to droughts becoming an even more familiar sight in Australia as a result of global warming.

    So the focus of drought relief shifted from disaster response to risk management.

    Building resilience

    The National Drought Policy announced in 1992 stated drought should be managed like any other business risk.

    Since then, the language of resilience has been added to the mix and the government lists three objectives for drought policy:

    • to build the drought resilience of farming businesses by enabling preparedness, risk management and financial self-reliance
    • to ensure an appropriate safety net is always available to those experiencing hardship
    • to encourage stakeholders to work together to address the challenges of drought.

    Since 1992, various governments have introduced, and tweaked, different programs aimed at supporting drought-affected farmers.

    The most successful program is the Farm Management Deposits Scheme. This has accumulated a whisker under A$6 billion in farmer savings, which are available to be drawn down during drought to support farm businesses.

    Others have come and gone – for example, the much-criticised Exceptional Circumstances Program.

    More help needed

    In 2025, the federal government is using the Future Drought Fund to invest $100 million per year to promote resilience. It also offers support through the Farm Household Allowance and concessional loans for farms and related small businesses.

    Apart from the Farm Management Deposit Scheme and the Farm Household Allowance, these programs do not offer immediate financial assistance to the increasing number of farmers across southern Australia being impacted by drought. If the drought worsens, it is likely there will be increasing calls for greater support.

    This provides the government with a dilemma: it is already investing significantly in the risk and resilience approach to drought, but politically, it is hard to resist cries for help from farmers who are a highly valued group in our community.

    A better way?

    There is a solution available to government to improve support. It can be done through the provision of “revenue contingent loans” for drought-affected farmers. Financial support would be available to farmers when they need it, consistent with the risk management principles underpinning the national drought policy.

    Our detailed modelling, extending now over 25 years, shows compellingly that revenue-based loans would mean taxpayers spending less on drought arrangements. But the assistance compared with other forms of public sector help would be greater.

    Capacity to repay would be the defining feature of the scheme. A revenue contingent loan is only paid down in periods when the farm is experiencing healthy cash flow. If a farm’s annual financial situation is difficult, no repayments are required.

    These loans would also remove foreclosure risk associated with an inability to repay when times are tough. Loan defaults simply can’t happen, a feature which also takes away the psychological trauma associated with the fear of losing the property due to unforeseen financial difficulties.

    Good policy

    These benefits would address governments’ main motivation with drought policy, which is risk management. That is because repayment concerns and default prospects would be eliminated. With farming, in which there is great uncertainty, these are very significant pluses for policy.

    Revenue contingent loans are a proper risk management financial instrument that requires low or no subsidies from government. They would complement the Farm Management Deposit Scheme and be an effective replacement for the concessional loans currently on offer.

    A win-win for farmer and taxpayer, alike.

    Linda Botterill has in the past received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Grains Research and Development Corporation, and Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation (now Agrifutures).

    Bruce Chapman has received funding from the Australian Research Council in various years, and was a consultant to the Federal Government’s Department of Education University Accord Enquiry in 2023/24.

    ref. The drought is back – we need a new way to help farmers survive tough times – https://theconversation.com/the-drought-is-back-we-need-a-new-way-to-help-farmers-survive-tough-times-256576

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Northland Regional Council media briefs – 26 May 2025

    Source: Northland Regional Council

    THINKING ABOUT RUNNING FOR COUNCIL?
    Find out what it takes to be an elected member for Northland Regional Council or Whangarei District Council. Hear from experts in local government and have your questions answered.
    WHEN Wednesday, 04 June 5pm to 7:30pm
    WHERE Te Iwitahi (Civic Centre), 9 Rust Avenue, Whangārei, or join the livestream via Facebook.
    FLOOD MANAGEMENT RECOGNITION
    Northland Regional Council’s Rivers team has been awarded runner up in Floodplain Management Australia’s IAG Excellence Award for Flood Risk Management Project of the Year 2025.
    This recognition highlights a collaborative, community-led flood protection initiative, guided by local hapū and the partnership of three Māori land blocks. The project is safeguarding more than 1800 residents, two schools, Kohanga Reo, playcentres, a petrol station and essential community facilities – all while respecting Te Mana o te Wai and integrating Mātauranga Māori with modern engineering solutions.
    The project was shortlisted against three other large Australian projects. 

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC May 26, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 26, 2025

    Updated: Mon May 26 09:00:03 UTC 2025

     .

    D4
    Thu, May 29, 2025 – Fri, May 30, 2025
    D7
    Sun, Jun 01, 2025 – Mon, Jun 02, 2025

    D5
    Fri, May 30, 2025 – Sat, May 31, 2025
    D8
    Mon, Jun 02, 2025 – Tue, Jun 03, 2025

    D6
    Sat, May 31, 2025 – Sun, Jun 01, 2025
    (All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)

    Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

    PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

    POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.

     Forecast Discussion

    ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
    ACUS48 KWNS 260858
    SPC AC 260858

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0358 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

    Valid 291200Z – 031200Z

    …DISCUSSION…
    …Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6…
    A mid-level trough will move eastward into the eastern U.S. on
    Thursday, as a front remains over the Gulf Coast states and southern
    Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the
    south of the front Thursday afternoon, with the greatest convective
    coverage expected over parts of east Texas and the lower Mississippi
    Valley. An isolated severe threat will be possible during the day on
    Thursday as surface heating takes place. Any severe threat should be
    concentrated in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized
    near the front. At this time, confidence concerning a more focused
    severe threat area is low.

    On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the
    southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Moderate instability is
    forecast to the south of the front across parts of south-central and
    southwest Texas, and across parts of Florida. Isolated to scattered
    thunderstorms may develop in these areas, with a marginal severe
    threat possible.

    On Saturday, northerly flow at mid-levels is forecast to develop
    over the Great Plains. In response, some models suggest surface high
    pressure will be dominant across the Great Plains. This would limit
    severe potential. However, other model solutions suggest that some
    low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains.
    If this occurs, isolated to scattered thunderstorms that develop in
    the afternoon could have a marginal severe threat. Predictability is
    low concerning any specific scenario.

    …Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8…
    Northerly flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain over the Great
    Plains on Sunday, as a trough moves east-southeastward across the
    Gulf of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is
    forecast over the central and eastern U.S. Although isolated to
    scattered thunderstorms could form Sunday afternoon over parts of
    the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, any severe threat is
    expected to be isolated. This same setup is forecast to continue
    into Monday.

    Further northwest into parts of the northern High Plains on Monday,
    model forecasts suggest a trough could move through the northern
    Rockies and approach the northern High Plains. An axis of moderate
    instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across parts of
    western South Dakota and eastern Montana, where a severe threat
    would be possible. However, predictability at this range is low.

    ..Broyles.. 05/26/2025

    CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC – No MDs are in effect as of Mon May 26 10:02:01 UTC 2025

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Current Mesoscale DiscussionsUpdated:  Mon May 26 10:13:02 UTC 2025 No Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect.

    Notice:  The responsibility for Heavy Rain Mesoscale Discussions has been transferred to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) on April 9, 2013. Click here for the Service Change Notice.
    Archived Convective ProductsTo view convective products for a previous day, type in the date you wish to retrieve (e.g. 20040529 for May 29, 2004). Data available since January 1, 2004.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: With severe wind forecast, now is not the time to be out on the water

    Source: Maritime New Zealand

    Maritime NZ wants to remind ‘she’ll be righters’ and thrill seekers to stay off the water while a significant weather event tracks its way over parts of the country.

    With Easter paired up with ANZAC Day, many people will be planning to head out onto the water.

    MetService says bands of heavy rain and strong winds are forecast for many parts of northern and central New Zealand – starting today in the north, then sweeping south during Thursday and Friday.

    Today, winds gusting more than 50 knots (90 km/h plus) have been recorded off the coasts of Auckland, Northland and the Coromandel.

    Maritime NZ’s Principal Advisor Recreational Craft, Matt Wood says it is just not worth it to head out in these conditions.

    “Some of the winds forecast for the top half of the North Island are the strongest since 2017.

    “It is best to stay at home during this period.

    “Going out on the water with the expected conditions puts you, and potentially rescuers at risk should you get into trouble,” Matt Wood says.

    Maritime NZ’s Rescue Coordination Centre alongside NZ Police are responsible for coordinating search and rescue action when this is required.

    RCCNZ’s General Manager, Justin Allan says they are staffed 24/7 and are always ready alongside their search and rescue system partners to coordinate a rescue. However, he strongly encourages anyone planning on going out to understand the weather conditions as well as the risks to avoid the need for search and rescue action in difficult marine conditions.

    “Rescue missions need to be safe for those undertaking them. Do not underestimate the conditions, keep yourself safe, and consider the impact on those who may need to come to your assistance should you get into trouble,” Justin Allan says.

    Over the last couple of years several rescues occurred after recreational vessels were impacted by severe weather events.

    “There were some close calls and some tragic incidents as well.

    “Last year 17 people lost their lives in recreational boating incidents. Most of these were avoidable and in several cases people were out on the water when conditions were unsafe. Boaties need to ensure conditions are suitable before they hit the water, and if in doubt, don’t go out,” Matt Wood says.

    While the upper North Island will be impacted over the next couple of days, potentially there will be some good spots for boating in the lower North Island and upper half of the South Island, towards the end of the weekend. Ayone planning on getting on the water should check the maritime forecast. MetService has boating forecasts Marine Weather Forecasts and Conditions – MetService New Zealand.

    For information on safer boating advice head to saferboating.org.nz. 

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Sweden: EIB finances major expansion of Stockholm metro – one of Europe’s largest urban transport projects

    Source: European Investment Bank

    EIB

    • The European Investment Bank (EIB) is providing approximately 400 million euro in additional financing to the Region of Stockholm and the City of Stockholm.
    • The project, which will affect four municipalities, involves 30 km of new tracks, 18 metro stations, and the expansion of a depot.
    • This is one of the largest metro expansion projects currently underway in Europe.

    The European Investment Bank (EIB) is stepping up its support for a project to expand the Stockholm metro by providing additional loans to the Region of Stockholm and the City of Stockholm. The EIB will provide a total of SEK 4.5 billion in financing, which equates to around €400 million. Including these new loans, the EIB has provided a total of over SEK 12 billion (more than €1 billion) for the project in Sweden’s capital.

    The project to expand the Stockholm metro is one of the largest infrastructure projects in Sweden to have been funded by the European Union and is the largest investment that the EIB has ever made in public transport in Sweden.

    EIB Vice-President Thomas Östros said: “This investment boosts both sustainable mobility and regional development. By providing an additional loan, we are demonstrating our long-term commitment to climate-smart investments in Europe’s growing cities. This project is an excellent example of how EU funding can benefit both people and the climate.”

    The metro project involves three new 30-kilometre sections in the Region of Stockholm, of which 20 kilometres will be in double-track tunnels, as well as 18 new stations. 130 500 housing units will be built along these new sections.

    The project will be implemented in the municipalities of Stockholm, Nacka, Solna and Järfälla. This initiative is essential to provide sustainable and efficient public transport to meet the needs of the growing population. 730 000 people currently use public transport in the county every day.

    Region of Stockholm Director-General Emma Lennartson said: “The EIB’s support is essential for investment in the metro expansion project. Continuing to invest in, and rely on, public transport is an effective way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the Region of Stockholm.”

    Lennartson also added:

    “With the City of Stockholm and our other partners in the county, we are working hard to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 12% every year, which is necessary for the county to do its part to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Investing in the metro will help to increase our chances of reaching carbon neutrality by 2045.”

    The new EIB loan is divided between the two borrowers:

    • SEK 2.5 billion will go to the Region of Stockholm
    • SEK 2 billion will go to the City of Stockholm.

    City of Stockholm Director-General Fredrik Jurdell said: “The EIB’s continued commitment to this financial partnership reaffirms the importance of the metro expansion project for sustainable growth in the capital and the surrounding areas. The new metro meets the needs of future generations in terms of transport and mobility, but also with regard to housing, given that housing units will be built as part of the project.”

    Significant efforts to boost sustainability are at the heart of the project to expand the Stockholm metro. Ceequal, a leading certification system for civil engineering projects, has completed an audit of the project. Several parties involved in the project received the ‘Excellent’ rating – the highest possible rating. This highlights how ambitious the project is with regard to the environment and sustainable development, going beyond legal and sector-specific requirements.

    Background information  

    EIB 

    The European Investment Bank (ElB) is the long-term lending institution of the European Union, owned by its Member States. Built around eight core priorities, we finance investments that contribute to EU policy objectives by bolstering climate action and the environment, digitalisation and technological innovation, security and defence, cohesion, agriculture and bioeconomy, social infrastructure, high-impact investments outside the European Union, and the capital markets union.  

    The EIB Group, which also includes the European Investment Fund (EIF), signed nearly €89 billion in new financing for over 900 high-impact projects in 2024, boosting Europe’s competitiveness and security.  

    All projects financed by the EIB Group are in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, as pledged in our Climate Bank Roadmap. Almost 60% of the EIB Group’s annual financing supports projects directly contributing to climate change mitigation, adaptation, and a healthier environment.  

    Fostering market integration and mobilising investment, the Group supported a record of over €100 billion in new investment for Europe’s energy security in 2024 and mobilised €110 billion in growth capital for startups, scale-ups and European pioneers. Approximately half of the EIB’s financing within the European Union is directed towards cohesion regions, where per capita income is lower than the EU average.

    High-quality, up-to-date photos of our headquarters for media use are available here.

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI Europe: EIB awards design services contract for West Campus Programme

    Source: European Investment Bank

    The European Investment Bank (EIB) has awarded the contract for design services for its West Campus Programme to a leading multi-national consortium, after a competitive tender process initiated in 2024.

    The selected consortium comprises Assar Universum Architects (Luxembourg), Assar BE Architects (Belgium), Schmidt Hammer Lassen Architects (Denmark), Paul Wurth Geprolux (Luxembourg), Tractebel Engineering (Belgium), Topotek 1 (Germany), and Papaya Urbanistes et Architectes Paysagistes (Luxembourg). Collectively, these firms bring extensive expertise in large-scale building design and renovation, with a particular focus on projects in Luxembourg.

    Under the signed Framework Agreement, the consortium will provide design services for an initial period of eight years, with the possibility of extension for up to three additional years. The agreement is valued at up to EUR 33 million.

    This milestone marks a significant step forward in the EIB West Campus Programme, which aims to renovate and extend the West Building (WKI) while preserving its historic façade. The consortium will be initially responsible for developing the preliminary design, for submission to the EIB’s governing bodies in early 2026.

    Commitment to Sustainability and Inclusion

    Aligned with the EIB’s commitment to sustainability and innovation, the West Campus Programme is designed to create a modern, comfortable, and inclusive work environment for staff and visitors. The project will prioritise climate action, energy efficiency, and circularity, in line with the EIB’s role as the EU Climate Bank. It will also reflect the principles of the New European Bauhaus, integrating sustainability, social inclusion, and aesthetics to deliver a beautiful and future-ready campus.

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI USA: South Texas Survivors Affected by the March 26-28 Severe Storms and Flooding Can Apply for Possible FEMA Assistance

    Source: US Federal Emergency Management Agency

    Headline: South Texas Survivors Affected by the March 26-28 Severe Storms and Flooding Can Apply for Possible FEMA Assistance

    South Texas Survivors Affected by the March 26-28 Severe Storms and Flooding Can Apply for Possible FEMA Assistance

    AUSTIN – FEMA is supporting state and local recovery efforts for South Texas homeowners and renters in four counties who sustained damage from the severe storms and flooding that occurred March 26-28

    Financial assistance is available to eligible homeowners and renters in Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr and Willacy counties

     FEMA may be able to help with serious needs, displacement, temporary lodging, basic home repair costs, personal property loss or other disaster-caused needs

    Survivors with homeowners or renters’ insurance, should file a claim as soon as possible

    By law, FEMA cannot duplicate benefits for losses covered by insurance

    If your policy does not cover all your damage expenses, you may then be eligible for federal assistance

    How To Apply for FEMA AssistanceHomeowners and renters who have disaster-caused damage or loss can apply for Individual Assistance under the major disaster declaration DR-4871-TX in several ways:Apply online at www

    DisasterAssistance

    gov

    Download the FEMA App for mobile devices

    Call the FEMA helpline at 800-621-3362 between 6 a

    m

    and 10 p

    m

    CT

    Help is available in most languages

    If you use a relay service, such as video relay (VRS), captioned telephone or other service, give FEMA your number for that service

    To view an accessible video about how to apply visit: Three Ways to Register for FEMA Disaster Assistance – YouTube

    When you apply for assistance, have this information readily available:If insured, the policy number or the agent and/or the company nameA current phone number where you can be contactedYour address at the time of the disaster and the address where you are now stayingYour Social Security number, if availableA general list of damage and lossesBanking information for direct depositRemember to keep receipts from all purchases related to cleanup and repair

     Assistance from FEMA can include grants for home repairs, replacement of uninsured personal property and other programs to help individuals and business owners recover from the effects of the disaster

     U

    S

    Small Business Administration (SBA) low-interest disaster loans are available to businesses of all sizes, nonprofits, homeowners and renters

    Like FEMA, SBA cannot duplicate benefits for losses covered by insurance

    For more information, visit fema

    gov/disaster/4871

    Follow FEMA Region 6 on social media at x

    com/FEMARegion6 and at facebook

    com/FEMARegion6/

    erika

    suzuki
    Sat, 05/24/2025 – 19:11

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: RCCNZ Gisborne search for three fishermen: update 3

    Source: Maritime New Zealand

    Two people have been identified alive in the water off Gisborne.

    A search was launched yesterday afternoon after a recreational fishing vessel was reported overdue, after a planned days fishing off Gisborne. Three people were on-board.

    The alert was initially raised to police just before 4 PM, 24 June. It wasn’t known where the party was when police were notified by a concerned contact of the fishing party. It has been subsequently confirmed three people were on-board the vessel.

    This afternoon, a container vessel, the African Tiger spotted two people in the water off the Mahia Peninsula. Visual contact has been lost but urgent actions to relocate is underway.

    RCCNZ’s Operation’s Manager, Michael Clulow says vessels have been sent to the location.

    “We are working as quickly as possible to relocate and rescue these people in the water.

    “They have been in the water for a long-time now, and will be cold and tired.”

    Weather conditions in the area are atrocious, making it extremely difficult for responders on the water and in the air.

    “We are looking at a number of ways to try and safely get these people out of the water.

    “Our thoughts are with the family and friends of those caught up in this rapidly evolving situation and are taking all practical steps to save lives,” he says.

    This response is being supported by the NZDF, Napier Harbour Tugs, NZ Coastguard and rescue helicopter providers.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: RCCNZ Gisborne search for three fishermen: update 6 (final)

    Source: Maritime New Zealand

    The staff at Maritime NZ and its Rescue Coordination Centre want to extend their thoughts and condolences to those impacted by the tragic events off Gisborne this week.

    Police have confirmed three people were found deceased overnight on the Mahia Peninsula. coastline.

    After a fishing party was reported overdue on Monday, a sustained search effort on the sea, in the air and along the coast was undertaken to bring the lost fishermen home.

    General Manager RCCNZ, Justin Allan says this was a difficult and complex search and rescue operation.

    “Weather conditions in the area were severe, and rescuers went right to their limits to get to the area we received reports the people in the water were, confirm their location and attempt to remove them from the sea.

    “Responders from the region, as well as rescue aircraft sourced from across the North Island had to battle atrocious conditions; including swells of up to and at times more than six metres, 50 knot winds and low visibility, showing how determined they were to reach the men in the water.

    “Unfortunately, the sea and weather conditions were too severe.

    “I want to thank everyone who has been involved, determined volunteers from the local community, family members, Coastguard (Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne), Police, rescue helicopter operators, Surf Life Saving NZ, crew of vessels in the area and the New Zealand Defence Force. This was a very challenging operation, with an outcome nobody wanted. Everyone was united in their drive to get these men home,” Justin Allan says.

    Again, Maritime NZ and its RCCNZ staff want to pass on their condolences to those impacted by the tragic incident.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Skippers need to undertake checks prior to departure

    Source: Maritime New Zealand

    The prosecution of a charter boat skipper is highlighting the need for operators to ensure they are properly prepared for their journeys.

    Skipper of the charter vessel Pelagic Kieren Boyle was recently sentenced in the Wellington District Court for a breach of the Health and Safety at Work Act, in relation to the vessel running out of fuel off the coast of Gisborne.

    On 6 June 2022, Boyle took four customers and another crew-member on a charter fishing for tuna.

    About seven hours and 27 nautical miles off the coast of Gisborne, the vessel ran out of fuel.

    Maritime NZ’s Manager, General Regulatory Operations Central, Jarred McCarthy says failing to ensure a vessel has enough fuel for a journey puts everyone on-board at risk.

    “If a vessel runs out of fuel while operating, the vessel and everyone on board will be at the mercy of the weather and conditions at sea unless or until they can be rescued.

    “This is not a risk worth taking. Weather at sea can change quickly and running out of fuel can increase the risk of capsize, passenger injury due to a lack of stability, and the vessel drifting; causing those on-board to potentially run out of supplies,” he says.

    In the vessel’s pre-voyage check there is an instruction to check the fuel levels.

    “This clearly didn’t take place adequately or properly prior to departure. Passengers going on charter trips have a right to believe proper procedures are being followed prior to departing and during their expedition.

    “This wasn’t the case on this trip,” Jarred McCarthy says.

    SENTENCING NOTES:

    Kieren Boyle was fined $3900 at sentencing.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Solo climber rescued from Boys Glacier mountain top

    Source: Maritime New Zealand

    A solo climber was successfully rescued from Boys Glacier in the Aoraki/Mount Cook National Park this morning in a joint operation that demonstrated effective search and rescue coordination between specialist teams.

    Maritime New Zealand’s Rescue Coordination Centre initiated an operation to locate and retrieve a male climber in his early 30s from the top of the glacier after receiving an active alert from a personal locator beacon about 5.45pm Thursday. The climber was also able to tell Police via a 111 call that he had been injured from a fall and required help.

    Maritime NZ Search and Rescue Officers contacted the Department of Conservation (DOC) Aoraki/Mount Cook Search and Rescue Team to initiate a rescue operation.

    Keith Allen, a Maritime NZ Senior Search and Rescue Officer, said there were immediate concerns for the climber’s welfare but due to poor weather and nightfall, the rescue team could not launch a helicopter operation to retrieve him until morning. Communications with the climber confirmed he was cold and wet but was able to shelter in a sleeping bag for the night.

    Helicopter vision of Boys Glacier during the rescue operation. Source: supplied.

    “Maritime New Zealand Rescue Coordination Centre called the DOC SAR Team for their local knowledge and expertise,” Mr Allen said. “They were concerned for the climber’s welfare in the cold overnight, with hypothermia and frost bite real risks but determined a helicopter operation could not be launched until morning.

    “Working with the DOC specialist alpine rescue team and The Helicopter Line overnight and into the morning, we were able to coordinate the team to the climber’s location Friday morning. Weather complicated the operation with low cloud hanging around below the climber, who was at about 6000 feet altitude.

    “The climber’s shelter had been compromised during the night and he and his all of belongings had become completely saturated. However, the team was able to reach him and he was successfully rescued when weather allowed on Friday morning.

    “We had a HeliOtago air ambulance on standby, but they were not needed in the end as the climber was rewarmed and assessed by the search and rescue team and had no significant injuries.

    “The operation was a great example of how Maritime NZ Rescue Coordination Centre works with specialist teams, like the DOC Aoraki/Mount Cook SAR Team, HeliOtago, and Helicopter Line to save lives.”

    Mr Allen said the helicopter with DOC SAR team reached the climber at 8.46am.

    DOC Search and Rescue Project Lead Scotty Barrier said a helicopter was able to nose into the steep terrain so rescuers could jump out, rope together and traverse to the climber to extract him from a dangerous location which was in a potential avalanche path.

    Helicopter vision during the rescue operation. Source: supplied.

    “The climber did the right thing by using the DOC intentions system at the visitor centre, which meant staff had a good idea of his itinerary. He was also carrying a personal locator beacon which is vital equipment for those heading into the mountains.

    “The weather was challenging, and this incident is a reminder for people venturing into unforgiving terrain in the mountains in winter that the environment and weather need the utmost respect. It’s also important to carry a weatherproof shelter for emergency situations.”

    Scotty Barrier said the successful rescue was a great example of several organisations working together for the best outcome for a patient.

    Maritime NZ Rescue Coordination Centre added that anyone who has a personal locator beacon should register it so search and rescue officers can contact them or their next of kin if sends emergency signals. For information on how to register and a PLB, visit the Beacons website: www.beacons.org.nz

    Maritime NZ Media contact:
    [email protected]
    Ph: 04 499 7318

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Think about the conditions before going out on the water this weekend

    Source: Maritime New Zealand

    With wild weather set to impact parts of the country this weekend, Maritime NZ wants recreational craft users to think carefully prior to getting out on the water.

    There are several weather watches and warnings up and down the West Coast of the South Island, as well as along the West Coast of the North Island.

    “Recreational craft users should only go out if it is safe, if they understand the conditions, have the correct safety equipment and have a suitable vessel for the waters they are traversing,” Maritime NZ’s Harm Prevention Lead Recreational Craft, Victoria Slade says.

    The warnings and watches in place are for heavy rain and winds in a range of places around the country.

    “To get an understanding of the conditions, it is important to check out MetService’s marine weather forecast to understand the risks on the water.

    “Conditions on the water can be drastically different to those on the land.

    “A light wind on the coast, can often increase on the water.

    With heavy rain forecast for part of the South Island, Maritime NZ is strongly discouraging anyone from undertaking recreational craft activities in flooded locations, or on swollen waterways.

    “These pose a significant risk. Floodwaters can hide hazards, such as branches or logs, and the flow of a waterway can be deceivingly quick.

    “As well as understanding the marine weather forecast, anyone who is heading out on the water needs to be wearing a properly fitted lifejacket, take two forms of communication (such as a beacon and a cellphone).

    “Being able to call for help should you get into trouble, is a lifesaver,” she says.

    Even those parts of the country which have relatively clear forecasts, there are risks when heading out on the water.

    “We have seen incidents where people have ended up in the water, a long way from help and unable to call for assistance. A fun day on the water can easily turn to disaster quickly. It is better to be safe than sorry,” she says.

    Maritime NZ wants people to have fun on the water, but do so in a way to ensures they get home safely to their family and friends.

    For further information head to saferboating.org.nz.  

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Be familiar with the unfamiliar this summer

    Source: Maritime New Zealand

    Over the summer many people in New Zealand will be heading to new locations and participating in recreational water activities in spots away from their normal go to spots.

    With more people out on the water, there are more instances of harm.

    Between December 2021 and the end of March 2022, ACC received around 2700 injury claims relating to recreational craft activities. Compared to a monthly average of just under 300 claims for the other eight months of the year.

    In 2022 19 died while undertaking activities on recreational craft.

    When in unfamiliar waters, it is important to understand the local bylaws and risks.

    “Crossing a bar is different to sailing in a lake, which is different from kayaking in a river.

    “If you’re not prepared before you head out onto the water, especially in an unfamiliar location, you are putting yourself and others at risk, says Maritime NZ Principal Advisor Recreational Craft, Matt Wood.

    The first step is to understand the local bylaws in the area you are holidaying in, and what is expected of you when you are in charge of the vessel you are managing.

    These can range from speed and lifejacket rules through to getting vessels in and out of the water.

    “There are some rules that apply to all water users, no matter where they are in the country, these are national maritime rules, such as keeping at a safe speed and respecting the give way rules.

    “If in doubt, check out the laws by via the relevant council’s website.

    “No matter what vessel you are using, it is expected that you and those on-board your vessel are wearing a properly fitted life jacket and that there is two forms of communication on-board,” Matt Wood says. 

    Weather conditions can change rapidly throughout the country, underscoring the importance of monitoring forecasts before the journey.

    “On big bodies of water weather can change from the shore to the middle of a lake, or from an inlet, to off-shore.

    “Being prepared can be a lifesaver,” Matt Wood says.

    Check MarineMate. It is a free app that allows you to access information on tide times, boat ramp locations and more.

    For general water safety rules click here

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Sabine Mauderer: Price stability and climate change

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Check against delivery 

    1 Introduction 

    Ladies and gentlemen. 

    I am delighted to have the opportunity to open this conference today.

    I am sure, we all agree: climate change alters the environment in which central banks operate. 

    According to the NGFS long-term scenarios, unmitigated climate change leads to losses in global GDP of almost 15 % by 2050 – relative to a scenario without climate change. This is a conservative estimate, as it does not yet account for key risks, such as sea level rise and climate tipping points.

    Given the context of this conference, there is no need to give you any further examples about the relevance of climate change. Instead, allow me to briefly recap why and how we as central bankers need to deal with climate change: In doing so, I will focus on some of the most important aspects. 

    2 Physical impacts and climate policies

    Let me turn to the two dimensions of what we call “climate change” for short: the impacts of climate change itself, and the effects of our attempts to mitigate it. 

    Central banks monitor both dimensions because of their relevance for output and prices. This is why I highly appreciate that the impacts of physical risk and transition risk on inflation are at the core of today’s conference. 

    Let’s start with physical risks. 

    In addition to the consequences of gradual shifts in temperature patterns or sea level rise, acute physical risks such as hurricanes, droughts or floods can damage the economy, with impacts lasting beyond the short-term. As the timing, location and magnitude of such shocks are largely unpredictable, central banks are on high alert. 

    In theory, the direction of price developments depends on the balance between supply and demand. Severe weather events could affect either side. Supply-side disruptions tend to cause higher prices whereas a reduction in demand tends to entail lower prices. 

    Without pre-empting the work presented at this conference: As outlined in a recent technical paper by the NGFS1, the emerging empirical work on the linkage between weather shocks and inflation suggests that the upward pressure from the supply side dominates, for instance, for agricultural production.

    One key finding is that food prices tend to rise in the aftermath of a weather shock – associated with negative supply impacts – with some spillovers into overall inflation.2 Moreover, the specific nature of the shock matters, with nonlinear inflationary effects being documented in the case of heatwaves.

    The type of damages can differ as well: while heatwaves tend to impact labour and agricultural productivity, leaving the capital stock unaffected, severe storms tend to impair infrastructure, housing, and the capital stock of an economy.3

    There is also the second dimension – transition risk. Many jurisdictions have committed to decarbonise their economies. This goes hand in hand with substantial structural changes that can also pose risks for price stability. 

    But the picture emerging here is more mixed: the impact of a green transition on inflation depends on its drivers and how it unfolds in the economy. 

    Moreover, short and long-run effects can differ.

    What are these drivers? Let me briefly elaborate. 

    Depending on the policy mix, the pace of technological progress, changes in preferences and the role of international trade relations4 – to mention just a few main aspects – the transition will affect the supply and demand side of the economy in multiple ways. 

    Hence there is no straightforward answer to the question whether inflationary or disinflationary effects will dominate. A higher carbon price, for example, makes carbon intensive products and businesses more expensive. As a result, consumer price inflation may rise in the short-term. 

    Over the medium to long run, however, higher costs of brown products will make it more attractive to shift to greener production processes – and invest in innovative green technologies. 

    Green innovations, efficiency gains and maturing technologies, together with an increasing usage of clean energy, can drive energy costs and prices down over time.5 Therefore, inflationary pressures are likely to remain contained in the medium to long run, especially in the event of an orderly transition with predictable carbon prices.

    Along the way, central banks will have to make sure that inflation expectations remain well-anchored, as maintaining price stability is their core mandate.

    Accelerating the green transition is up to our governments, but price stability and a sound financial system are important facilitators of this process.

    3 Conclusion

    Ladies and gentlemen. 

    Our economies are facing multidimensional, unprecedented structural changes. The green transition is just one aspect. 

    At the current juncture, the approaching threats of climate change are overshadowed by other topics. We are all witnessing the shift in attention to artificial intelligence, tariffs and trade wars, and the rising geopolitical uncertainties.

    The many unknowns associated to these topics make strategic long-term decisions particularly challenging for policymakers, firms and households alike. 

    Yet, climate change is and remains an urgent issue that involves answering complicated questions. The physical principles of climate change have not changed. Climate change will not simply disappear if we try to ignore it.

    But we will get closer to a solution every day – if we tackle these questions courageously and analytically. 

    Events like this conference are important to keep the attention on the problem and to improve our understanding of climate risks.

    In this spirit, I wish you a successful and productive discussion.


    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Captain’s decision to deviate from planned passage put vessel and crew in danger

    Source: Maritime New Zealand

    The dangers of large ships deviating from a passage plan when in extreme weather has been highlighted in the sentencing of a Captain at the Wellington District Court this week.

    Yongyu Li was the Captain of the ship Spinnaker SW. He pleaded guilty in May to one charge of operating a ship in a manner causing unnecessary danger or risk when he altered course without further assessment and navigated the large ship dangerously close to Portland Island while underway to Tauranga to load cargo.  The charge was filed by Maritime NZ.

    Prior to its departure on 14 February 2023, the vessel was anchored off the Mahia Peninsula to shelter from the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle. 

    Maritime NZ Investigations Manager John Maxwell says the 175 metre vessel was en route to Tauranga as the east coast was being hit by the cyclone. The country was in a national state of emergency while the vessel was under way. 

    “Due to the heavy conditions at sea, the Captain decided to change the route without further assessment, navigating the vessel close to Portland Island.

    “This was an incredibly risky decision. Navigating a large bulk carrier close to the island meant there was a risk it would get into dangerously shallow waters, removing the safety net of deeper water should something have gone wrong with the vessel, such as a loss of power.

    “The decision of Captain Li to alter course without further assessment of whether the route was safe put the crew, vessel, and the environment at risk.

    If something went wrong, the conditions would have hampered a potential response as well,” John Maxwell says.

    The original passage plan for the vessel was for it to go around Portland Island at a safe distance.  This allowed for the significant swells and heavy weather anticipated by the crew.

    After its departure from anchor, the vessel was recorded as encountering six to seven metre swells. The heavy weather caused the ship to roll, and the captain made the decision to navigate the ship closer to the Mahia Peninsula and Portland Island.

    “This change in route took the vessel close to shallow water, passing two spots with depths of 9.4 and 10m.

    “This is very shallow for a bulk carrier of this size, and would have only left it with a couple of metres of clearance between the vessel and a potential grounding” John Maxwell says.

    Captain Li’s decision to deviate from the agreed safe passage plan and undertake the above route, coupled with the heavy weather, was in the circumstances reckless and risked danger to the vessel, the crew on board, and the surrounding environment.

    Editor’s Note:

    Sentencing details

    Captain Li was convicted of operating a ship in a manner that caused unnecessary danger or risk under s 65 of the Maritime Transport Act 1994 and sentenced on 19 July 2023 to a fine of $1,875, which included a discount of 25 per cent for his early guilty plea.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Maritime response Shiling update 14

    Source: Maritime New Zealand

    The Shiling under tow by the Skandi Emerald is on schedule to reach Wellington Harbour by late tomorrow (23 May) morning.

    The towage operation started in Tasman Bay at about 10.30 AM, Monday 22 May.

    It is currently tracking at between 5 – 6 knots.

    Incident Controller David Billington says the top priority is ensuring the operation is undertaken as safely as possible.

    “The crew of the Skandi Emerald is very experienced in managing, tows in a range of conditions, including what could be experienced in the Cook Strait.

    “Weather conditions are reasonably stable for the journey too,” he says.

    All of the Shiling’s crew remain on board the vessel.

    The two vessels should be arriving in Wellington for pilotage at around 11 AM, Tuesday 23 May.

    A 500 metre exclusion zone has been put in place around the towage operation for the duration of the journey to Wellington.

    “The exclusion zone is in there for a reason, and it is to keep both the towage operation and other people safe,” David Billington says.

    A Maritime NZ incident response team will continue to monitor the vessels as they make their journey to Wellington. 

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Canadians should expect another active hurricane season

    Source: Government of Canada News

    May 23, 2025 – Dartmouth, Nova Scotia

    During the upcoming hurricane season, Canadians can rely on state-of-the-art weather forecasting systems from Environment and Climate Change Canada. These systems provide timely and reliable weather information and alerts in advance of approaching tropical storms and hurricanes. Early warnings will give Canadians time to prepare and protect themselves, their loved ones, and their properties in the event of a storm.

    The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, and this season is expected to be above-average for tropical storm activity. Experts are predicting 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean basin. Environment and Climate Change Canada encourages everyone to prepare before the season begins.

    Meteorologists at the Canadian Hurricane Centre conduct 24/7 monitoring and hazard prediction year-round. They focus on storms with the potential to affect Canada and its waters, track storm paths, predict intensity, and issue warnings. They also provide information to help provincial and territorial partners and emergency management officials to lessen the impacts of tropical cyclones and hurricanes in Canadian communities.

    It is now more important than ever to get prepared. There has been an increase in Category 3 to Category 5 hurricanes over the past four decades, and with climate change, the intensity of the strongest hurricanes is expected to increase.

    MIL OSI Canada News

  • MIL-OSI USA: SBA Relief Still Available to Texas Small Businesses and Private Nonprofits Affected by Adverse Weather Conditions

    Source: United States Small Business Administration

    SACRAMENTO, Calif. – The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) is reminding eligible small businesses and private nonprofit (PNP) organizations in Texas of the deadline to apply for low interest federal disaster loans to offset economic losses caused by adverse weather conditions.

    The disaster declarations cover the counties listed below:

    Declaration
    Number

    Primary
    Counties

    Neighboring
    Counties

    Incident Type

    Incident Date

    Deadline

    20823 Willacy Cameron, Hidalgo and Kenedy in Texas Drought, Excessive Heat and High Winds Jan. 1-June 30, 2024 6/23/25
    20825 Coryell, Delta, Grayson and Hill Bell, Bosque, Collin, Cooke, Denton, Ellis, Fannin, Franklin, Hamilton, Hopkins, Hunt, Johnson, Lamar, Lampasas, Limestone, McLennan, Navarro and Red River in Texas;
    Bryan, Love and Marshall in Oklahoma
    Excessive Moisture, Flash Flood, High Winds and Hail April 26-Sept. 10, 2024 6/23/25
    20826 Coleman and Lamar Brown, Callahan, Concho, Delta, Fannin, Franklin, McCulloch, Red River, Runnels and Taylor in Texas;
    Bryan and Choctaw in Oklahoma
    Hail and High Winds May 9-11, 2024 6/23/25

    Under this declaration, SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program is available to small businesses, small agricultural cooperatives, nurseries, and PNPs with financial losses directly related to the disaster. The SBA is unable to provide disaster loans to agricultural producers, farmers, or ranchers, except for small aquaculture enterprises.

    EIDLs are available for working capital needs caused by the disaster and are available even if the business or PNP did not suffer any physical damage. The loans may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable and other bills not paid due to the disaster.

    “Through a declaration by the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, SBA provides critical financial assistance to help communities recover,” said Chris Stallings, associate administrator of the Office of Disaster Recovery and Resilience at the SBA. “We’re pleased to offer loans to small businesses and private nonprofits impacted by these disasters.”

    The loan amount can be up to $2 million with interest rates as low as 4% for small businesses and 3.25% for PNPs with terms up to 30 years. Interest does not accrue, and payments are not due until 12 months from the date of the first loan disbursement. The SBA sets loan amounts and terms based on each applicant’s financial condition.

    To apply online and receive additional disaster assistance information visit sba.gov/disaster. Applicants may also call SBA’s Customer Service Center at (800) 659-2955 or email disastercustomerservice@sba.gov for more information on SBA disaster assistance. For people who are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access telecommunications relay services.

    Submit completed loan applications to SBA no later than June 23.

    ###

    About the U.S. Small Business Administration

    The U.S. Small Business Administration helps power the American dream of business ownership. As the only go-to resource and voice for small businesses backed by the strength of the federal government, the SBA empowers entrepreneurs and small business owners with the resources and support they need to start, grow, expand their businesses, or recover from a declared disaster. It delivers services through an extensive network of SBA field offices and partnerships with public and private organizations. To learn more, visit www.sba.gov.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: Statement from Governor Josh Stein on FEMA’s Denial of North Carolina’s Reimbursement Request

    Source: US State of North Carolina

    Headline: Statement from Governor Josh Stein on FEMA’s Denial of North Carolina’s Reimbursement Request

    Statement from Governor Josh Stein on FEMA’s Denial of North Carolina’s Reimbursement Request
    lsaito

    Raleigh, NC

    Today Governor Josh Stein released the following statement in reaction to news that FEMA had denied North Carolina’s request for an extension of its 100% cost reimbursement for debris removal: 

    “The first step to help western North Carolina recover is to clean up all the debris. So far, we have removed more than 12 million cubic yards of debris from roads and water ways, but given the immense scale of the wreckage, we have only scratched the surface. FEMA’s denial of our appeal will cost North Carolina taxpayers potentially hundreds of millions of dollars to clean up out west. The money we have to pay toward debris removal will mean less money towards supporting our small businesses, rebuilding downtown infrastructure, repairing our water and sewer systems, and other critical needs.

    “Despite this news, we are going to stay the course. We will keep pushing the federal and state governments to do right by western North Carolina. We will keep working with urgency, focus, and transparency to get any appropriated money on the ground as quickly as we can to speed the recovery. We will not forget the people of western North Carolina.”

    Governor Josh Stein continues to advocate for the Trump administration and the U.S. Congress to send $19 billion to North Carolina for disaster relief – $11.5 billion in new appropriations and $7.5 billion in allocations from previous appropriations. Earlier this week, he released his second state Hurricane Helene budget proposal of $891 million to spur economic recovery, strengthen critical infrastructure, and get people back into their homes.  

    May 23, 2025

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Global: For many island species, the next tropical cyclone may be their last

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Simon Valle, Conservation Planning Officer at IUCN SSC Conservation Planning Specialist Group & Honorary Lecturer in Conservation Science, Bangor University

    The Bahama warbler, a species which suffered greatly as a result of Hurricane Dorian in 2019. David Pereira

    When a major cyclone tears through an island nation, all efforts rightly focus on saving human lives and restoring livelihoods. However, these storms have permanent consequences for other species that are often forgotten.

    As the world continues to heat, cyclones are expected to become more frequent, intense and unpredictable. The International Union of Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the global authority on biodiversity, lists storms as one factor threatening species. But just how much of a threat is still poorly understood.

    The effects of cyclones on biodiversity are easily neglected because the damage is sudden, scattered and hard to measure. Extinctions can be abrupt and go unnoticed. This largely overlooked extinction crisis is likely to worsen with climate change.

    In a new study, we measured the threat posed by tropical cyclones on the diversity of land-based mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles globally. We mapped all severe tropical cyclones that occurred between 1972 and 2022 and checked how many overlapped with areas widely recognised to be exceptionally rich in species, otherwise known as biodiversity hotspots.


    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.


    We focused on severe cyclones only – those with wind speeds exceeding 130 mph – as historically, it is these that have caused species to severely decline or go extinct.

    What we found surprised us: three-quarters of all severe cyclones struck hotspots which are entirely comprised of islands. This seemed alarming. Islands have an inherently high extinction risk anyway because they support many species that are found nowhere else and which evolved in isolation. These species often have very small populations and nowhere to escape when disaster strikes.

    Even more worrying, more than 95% of the severe cyclones that struck island biodiversity hotspots hit the same five ones. In descending order of cyclone frequency these are: Japan, Polynesia-Micronesia, the Philippines, Madagascar and the Indian Ocean islands, and the Caribbean islands.

    We clearly identified high-risk areas, but what does this mean for the animal species that live there? To find out we consulted the red list of threatened species which is compiled and regularly updated by the IUCN to see how many vertebrate species were noted for their vulnerability to storms.

    One cyclone away from extinction

    The hotspots experiencing the most severe cyclones are not necessarily those that have the most storm-threatened species. For example, Japan has the most storms but the fewest species at risk, whereas the Caribbean has fewer storms but over 128 species are threatened by them. This suggests that the frequency of cyclones alone does not determine the danger to each region’s biodiversity.

    Other aspects are likely to play a role. In particular, the data indicates that species in island biodiversity hotspots made up of a lot of small islands are more at risk of local or global extinction.

    The more we learned about the dangers posed by cyclones, the more concerned we became. Many species are so restricted in range that they could be entirely wiped out by just one cyclone. It has happened before. The Bahama nuthatch (Sitta insularis), a small forest-dwelling songbird, is thought to have gone extinct following the passage of Hurricane Dorian in 2019.

    One of the last known sightings of the Bahamas nuthatch.

    Preparing for the unpredictable

    To begin raising awareness and help conservationists prioritise their efforts, we compiled a watchlist of the species that are most at risk from tropical cyclones. This includes 60 storm-threatened species which are present only on a single location on a single island.

    For each of these 60 species, the next severe tropical cyclone may be their last. A better understanding of the distribution and status of these species is only the beginning. Conservationists need to plan how to help them avoid a sudden demise.

    The need to act quickly is clear. Of the 60 species on our list, only 24 are part of any active conservation effort and just six are in captive breeding programmes. Coordinated efforts are our best bet and we propose a task force under the IUCN to allow better preparation, rapid response and international support.

    With the right knowledge and foresight, we can ensure human recovery and ecological survival for future generations.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.


    Tom Martin, head of research at Operation Wallacea, contributed to this article.

    Simon Valle and David Jorge Pereira do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointments.

    ref. For many island species, the next tropical cyclone may be their last – https://theconversation.com/for-many-island-species-the-next-tropical-cyclone-may-be-their-last-256600

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI USA: Project Spotlight: USGS Scientists Work with Kenai Peninsula Communities to Define Baseline Water Data Amid Climate Uncertainty

    Source: US Geological Survey

    Homes and a fisher along the Kenai River. Photo: Christian Thorsberg.

    Seldovia, Alaska — a quintessential sleepy fishing town on the southern edge of the Kenai Peninsula — starts to wake up around late May. 

    By then, the first salmon are running. Water taxis come and go. Fishing charters fill. Bellies, too. During a busy year, the community of roughly 500 people doubles in size from the influx of tourists eager to soak up the Arctic sun. 

    The summer of 2019 began with its usual verve, and as May turned to June turned to July, the height of the busy season, the sleepy town was still dreaming. “The summer was great. I remember midway through, people were so happy,” says Cassidi Cameron, who at the time was Seldovia’s city manager. “We had all these visitors. Everybody had a smile on their face.”

    But as inns brimmed, freezers filled, and coffers replenished, one site in town felt emptier. “And then it started to dawn on us,” Cameron says. “Wow, there hasn’t been very much rain.”

    All of Seldovia draws its water from a single reservoir, which sits within city limits no more than 200 feet above sea level. A gravity-fed treatment facility rests below, and water flows naturally into a distribution system. The operation is entirely dependent on rainfall and melting snow, and summer is a time of increased water usage. But between June and August of 2019, fewer than three inches of rain had fallen, roughly half a foot behind seasonal averages.  

    Early signs of water shortages began to reveal themselves, though they could be explained away by leakages, which were a common occurrence in town. “Alaska’s infrastructure is very much aged-out, and we were having several issues with our water lines deteriorating and breaking or just plain not working,” Cameron says. Some of Seldovia’s oldest residents didn’t seem too worried, either. They recalled the 1970s and ‘80s, when a booming fish cannery industry meant frequent water overconsumption.

    But as the pleasurable string of sunny days turned to unseasonable warmth, Cameron remained diligent. She ordered an underwater scan of the reservoir to check for leaks in its bed. She monitored the water usage of the state ferry, which was still docking in Seldovia three times each week and taking 20,000 to 50,000 gallons of water with each stop. Regular visits to the reservoir revealed it was losing several inches of surface water each day, both to usage and evaporation. By August, consumption spiked at more than 200,000 gallons per day. This seemed like a lot, but Cameron had no historical numbers for comparison. Seldovia held its breath for the reliable late-summer rainy season. But August came and went — nothing. 

    What had once seemed an impossibility to Cameron, who moved to the coastal community in 2008 from Idaho and began working for the city in 2009, was suddenly her problem to fix: “How could you have a drought and water shortages in Alaska?” she wondered.

    This question was addressed at a standing-room-only town hall meeting — “I’ve never seen one so well-attended,” Cameron recalls. Many residents were well-aware that the reservoir in neighboring Nanwalek had recently been reduced to mud. That Wrangell, too, was running dry. As a potential Day Zero loomed locally, community members were cautioned to limit their showering, cooking, and cleaning. Library hours were shortened. Restaurants switched to disposable utensils. Pallets of drinking water were imported and delivered door-to-door for several weeks. 

    The city received a permit to pump water from a regional creek and set up a non-potable tank of gray water for public use. Still, Suzie Stranik, the chair of the Seldovia Arts Council, recalls shutting down her greenhouse early and flushing her toilets sparingly. “It was quite a time here in our community,” she says.

    Looming above town, the reservoir dwindled. At its lowest point, it held just 14 days of water. 

    Today, Cameron works as the executive director of the Kenai Peninsula Economic Development District. When she recalls that stressful summer, it is above all the massive learning curve, and the lack of readily available science, that floats to the top of her mind. 

    “It was a bigger situation than what we were prepared for,” she says. “I needed a crash course in hydrology. It was a reality check.”

    Cameron’s experience is not unfamiliar to many leaders in small communities across the Kenai Peninsula and Alaska more broadly. Often, they have few resources — and little time — to prepare for potentially life-altering weather events. Had September not brought rains and cooler temperatures, a bad situation could easily have been worse. 

    “I wish there were more resources and data back in 2019 to help me understand our water situation and reservoir capacity,” she says. “A good rule of thumb for the future would be: get a baseline understanding, get familiar with your water source.”


    A Beaver Creek Baseline 

    Three years later and roughly 80 miles north of Seldovia, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists Josh Koch, Meg Haserodt, and Andy Leaf eased their kayaks through the freshwater lowlands of the peninsula’s northwestern bogs. Marshes and muck marked the peaty landscape, many hidden ponds threatening to overtop their waders and bows. 

    Compared to 2019, the summer of 2022 was significantly wetter. Mosquitos swarmed as the trio installed wells in the shallow peat. For weeks, they measured the interactions of surface water and groundwater, temperature, and vegetation cover along the narrow banks of Beaver Creek. 

    As he was pounding in a well, USGS scientist Andy Leaf (right) lost his wedding ring. “It’s still out there, as far as I know,” he says. “An archaeologist will find it one day.” Photo: Meg Haserodt.

    A 10-mile-long tributary of the mighty Kenai River, Beaver Creek is a critical watershed for the city of Kenai, the peninsula’s most populous community. Nearly all of its 7,500 year-round residents depend heavily on pumped groundwater for clean drinking water, and thousands of Pacific salmon — the lifeblood of the community’s economy and staple of its meals — have spawned in its gravel for generations. 

    “If you live in Kenai, Beaver Creek is your backyard,” says Ben Meyer, an environmental scientist and water quality coordinator with the Kenai Watershed Forum, and a Kenai resident. “For both people and wildlife, it’s a crucial place where water needs intersect.”

    Beaver Creek is one of the many watersheds in the Cook Inlet region that is currently intact yet sensitive to shifting climate regimes. Laying within a rain shadow, the area averages only 19 inches of precipitation each year. From May through September, 64 percent of the watershed’s slow-moving streams are supplied by groundwater flows.

    “Nineteen inches of precipitation is not a lot,” Leaf says. “Some people have talked about the possibility of the wetlands drying up due to climate change.” Koch adds: “We anticipate these lowland streams to be the ones most potentially impacted by changes to the climate, namely temperature and precipitation.”

    On the upper Kenai Peninsula, the annual average temperature is expected to increase by roughly 11 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, according to the Scenarios Network for Arctic Planning (SNAP). Greater rainfall is also possible, with SNAP models projecting 45 percent more precipitation in spring alone. But deluges may be interspersed with long, dry stretches — a “more rain, more drought” phenomenon expected to affect many parts of south-central and southeast Alaska by mid-century.

    “As average air temperatures warm, we anticipate more summers like 2019 could happen,” Meyer says. “It behooves us to be prepared.”


    Hot Pockets and Salmon Refugia

    With an uncertain climate in mind, USGS and the Kenai Watershed Forum collaborated on a recently published study that establishes baseline streamflow and temperature measurements and future scenarios for Beaver Creek. The team projects that the volume of groundwater and streamflow discharge will remain about the same through 2050. Atmospheric warming, however, will almost certainly affect the water’s quality.

    “By far the biggest concern is rising temperatures,” Leaf says. “Both from an acute standpoint, like heat waves, but also warmer temperatures for longer periods of time.”

    Between 1950 and 2009, the average summer temperature on the upper Kenai Peninsula was 53.6 degrees Fahrenheit. According to the team’s models, by mid-century, waters near the mouth of Beaver Creek will experience 34 to 63 extra days each year with average weekly temperatures above 55.4 degrees, and 14 to 81 extra days above 59 degrees. 

    Extended periods of warmth are likely to produce at least some negative impacts on Pacific salmon incubation, spawning, rearing, and migration. The team also projects “routine exceedances” of 68 degrees — the water temperature at which salmon succumb to disease and heat stress.

    “On the Kenai, as for so much of Alaska, important hydrologic questions are related to salmon and salmon habitat,” Koch says.

    Fishers on the Kenai River. Photo: Christian Thorsberg.

    While identifying areas of concern, the team also looked for bright spots. Their report identifies several streams in the basin that, despite warming air temperatures, are expected to remain cool enough for salmon to thrive or rest within during days of extreme heat. Because Beaver Creek flows through the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, the team hopes these potential areas of salmon refugia will benefit from dedicated habitat conservation. 

    Coho and king salmon, which both migrate through and spawn in lowland waters like Beaver Creek, have seen precipitous declines in the Kenai River watershed in recent years. According to preliminary data from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, the watershed’s king salmon late run escapement last year was a mere 6,630 — well below the 15,000 – 30,000 goal range — even with no permitted harvest. And while coho escapement is not monitored, their 2024 commercial harvest estimate of 24,750 was 86 percent below the recent 20-year average.

    These findings again contribute to a baseline understanding of the watershed’s health, Meyer says, as no escapement, for any salmon species, is currently measured in Beaver Creek specifically.

    “It was exciting to see that our model could find and identify those safer locations,” Koch says.  “Hopefully, that’s information that land managers can use to think about preservation of important habitat.”


    Future Stressors

    By 2046, the city of Kenai is expected to see its population grow by 13.3 percent, relative to 2015. Nearby Soldotna, home to about 4,500 people, is likely to grow at a similar rate. The researchers don’t anticipate water shortages from this alone, though local development could bring additional water demands.

    If built, the proposed Alaska LNG pipeline — which would transport natural gas 800 miles through the heart of Alaska, from the North Slope to the Kenai Peninsula — would likely cross through and then terminate adjacent to the Beaver Creek watershed near Nikisi. The area would also host the pipeline’s liquefaction plant, where natural gas is condensed for export. The facility, Meyer says, could potentially draw from the municipality’s water supply. 

    An active petroleum exploration project is also underway near the last few miles of Beaver Creek, just outside the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, though drilling is occurring below the water table. Oil and gas impacts were not considered as part of this study.

    “Our goal was not to assign value between different uses, but to simply demonstrate how the water moves and how that might change in the future,” Koch says. “We’re hopeful that we’ve provided new information that can be used by the community to weigh those trade-offs and manage those resources.”

    The Kenai River in late September, the tail end of the seasonal salmon run. Photo: Christian Thorsberg. 

    Resource considerations are magnified on the 25,000 square-mile peninsula, where roughly 60,000 people call home. Every community — from Seldovia to Seward, from Kenai to Hope — is connected to Anchorage and the rest of Alaska by just a single road and several small airports. 

    Sustainable living is equally sensitive to both longer-term climate changes, Cameron says, as it is to sudden events. 

    “It isn’t all about drought,” she says. “How do you manage your resources in the event of a catastrophe, or something significant that affects basic living needs? Water is one of them, and we need to raise awareness for planning and preparation.”

    The peninsula’s unique geography and location makes it susceptible to natural disasters including landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis, and the expected eruption of Mt. Spurr, a stratovolcano just 60 miles from Kenai. Such events can suddenly make any given town, possibly in crisis, unreachable. Having reliable science during times of need is crucial, the researchers say. They hope similar studies will be a priority for other Kenai communities soon.

    “Generating baseline data sets can be challenging to convince people to fund,” Haserodt says. “But they’re really useful. They’re an investment in our understanding of the future of our water resources and ability to make data-driven management decisions.”


    This news announcement was written by Christian Thorsberg, University of Alaska Fairbanks. Read the original post on the Alaska CASC website: Kenai Peninsula Communities Struggle for Baseline Water Data Amid Climate Uncertainty | AK CASC

    MIL OSI USA News