Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Bonita Meyersfeld, Associate Professor, University of the Witwatersrand
There is some disagreement among legal practitioners and scholars about whether corporations have duties under international law.
Many argue that only states are bound by international law, and it is those states which are obliged to regulate how businesses operate within their borders. Corporations have only a voluntary responsibility to avoid committing human rights violations through their operations.
I have been doing research in the area of corporate accountability for human rights violations since 2006. My most recent paper looks at the role of multinational corporations (multinationals) in benefiting from and perpetuating structural poverty in the global south.
I argue that international law can no longer exempt corporations from liability for human rights violations, including those arising from poverty. Under certain circumstances, corporations should have duties under international law to ensure human rights are fulfilled. I argue that this is particularly true when it comes to socio-economic rights such as the rights to housing, education, food, water and healthcare.
International human rights law must be developed to impose duties directly on multinational corporations to alleviate poverty in the developing countries where they operate.
This is not an absolute duty – it would only arise in certain circumstances and for specific periods of time, as I show in my paper.
Poverty and corporations
Some estimate that as many as 1.3 billion people live in poverty – more than 10% of the world’s population, the vast majority in the global south.
Poverty is also deadly. It is estimated that at least 21,300 people die every day as a result of poverty and inequality. Poverty is a human rights violation, affecting the rights to dignity, life, food and water.
Businesses have a long history of profiting from human rights abuses. Finance and transport companies have acknowledged ties to the slave trade. European banks reportedly assisted South Africa’s apartheid government to procure arms.
Even when they are not directly responsible for human rights violations, multinational corporations may be complicit. Multinationals based in the global north tend to exploit developing countries for their cheap labour, natural resources and weak regulatory frameworks. In other words, corporations benefit from poverty.
International law
In 2005, Professor John Ruggie was appointed as the United Nations secretary-general’s special representative on the issue of human rights and transnational corporations and other business enterprises. He developed the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. This framework adopts the position that only states are subjects and have duties under international human rights law.
The UN guiding principles are organised around three pillars, known as Protect, Respect and Remedy. The first pillar relates to states’ obligations to uphold human rights. It includes the duty to regulate businesses to ensure they do not violate rights through their operations. The second pillar refers to corporations’ responsibility to respect human rights. This is voluntary and not a legal obligation. The third pillar ensures that victims of human rights violations have access to effective remedies.
This framework relies on three factors: states which have the interests of their citizens at heart, corporations complying with human rights standards, and effective remedial systems. If all three work together, then the UN guiding principles can address corporate accountability for rights violations.
In practice, however, this is not the case. Many states, particularly those in the developing world with high levels of poverty, rely on foreign investment. This creates a power imbalance when negotiating with large multinational corporations. Multinationals are able to demand favourable investment conditions, including relaxing laws that might protect human rights.
Under the UN guiding principles, if states do not impose obligations on corporations to comply with human rights, they do not have such obligations.
Next steps
Not all corporations should have the same duties as states. I propose a set of factors that would determine when a corporation might have a duty under international human rights law to fulfil socio-economic rights. These factors are:
the extent of the violation
the position or vulnerability of the victim
the urgency of the situation
whether the corporation is the only actor that can fulfil the right.
For example, let us imagine a scenario in which a company operates a mine in the Central African Republic. It has built a hospital for its workers and management. Surrounding the mining operations are indigent communities who resided in the area before the operations began.
One day, a child from one of the settlements is knocked over by a car. Her injuries are not life-threatening, but they are severe and the child is in terrible pain. The closest hospital is the mine-owned private hospital. There is a public hospital, but it is far away and travelling there would take time and be costly. The child’s family rushes her to the mine’s hospital for emergency treatment. Does the hospital have a legal duty to admit the child and pay for her treatment?
Applying a combination of the factors, the answer is yes. The child is vulnerable by virtue of her age and poverty, the situation is urgent, and the mine hospital is the only entity that can fulfil the right under the circumstances.
Using this framework, I argue that international human rights law should be developed to mitigate the harm of poverty in the global south, by imposing duties on corporations that benefit from poverty. Some corporations have a perverse incentive to keep communities poor. International law has a role to play in overturning this state of affairs.
Ultimately, my proposal seeks to review what we think of as a fair and just economy. Nothing will change if only states have obligations under international law. The global economic market is neither free nor fair. It has created the most severe human rights violations of our age. International human rights law must address this.
– Big companies profit from poverty but aren’t obliged to uphold human rights. International law must change – scholar – https://theconversation.com/big-companies-profit-from-poverty-but-arent-obliged-to-uphold-human-rights-international-law-must-change-scholar-241398
NERMEEN SHAIKH: Israel’s deadly siege on northern Gaza has entered a 30th day. Early week, the World Health Organisation managed to deliver some medical supplies to the Kamal Adwan Hospital, but on Thursday, Israeli fighter jets bombed the hospital’s third floor, where the supplies were being stored.
Al Jazeera reports Israeli forces are continuing to shell Beit Lahia, the scene of multiple massacres last week. On Wednesday, an Israeli attack on a market in Beit Lahia killed at least 10 Palestinians. Earlier in the week, Israel struck a five-story residential building, killing at least 93 people, including 25 children.
Meanwhile, at the United Nations, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Francesca Albanese, has released a major report accusing Israel of committing genocide.
Albanese concludes that Israel’s war on Gaza is part of a campaign of, “long-term intentional, systematic, state-organised forced displacement and replacement of the Palestinians” . The report is titled Genocide as Colonial Erasure.
AMY GOODMAN: Francesca Albanese is now facing intensifying personal attacks from Israeli and US officials. She was set to brief Congress earlier last week, but the briefing was cancelled. On Tuesday, the US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, wrote on social media, “As UN Special Rapporteur Albanese visits New York, I want to reiterate the US belief she is unfit for her role. The United Nations should not tolerate antisemitism from a UN-affiliated official hired to promote human rights.”
On Wednesday, Francesca Albanese spoke at the United Nations and responded to the US attacks.
FRANCESCA ALBANESE: I have the same shock that you have, looking at how the United States is behaving in this context, in the context of the genocide that is unfolding in Gaza. I’m not — I’m not surprised that they attack anyone who speaks to the facts that are, frankly, on our watch in Gaza. And they do that so brutally because they feel called out, because it’s not that it’s that the United States is simply an observer. The United States is being an enabler in what Israel has been doing.
AMY GOODMAN: That was UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese speaking at the United Nations on Wednesday. She joins us here in our studio.
Welcome back to Democracy Now! Thanks so much for joining us.
Well, before we get you to further respond to what the US and Israel is saying, can you lay out the findings of your report?
Colonial Erasure’: UN expert Francesca Albanese on Israel’s “intent to destroy” Gaza Video: Democracy Now!
FRANCESCA ALBANESE: Absolutely. First of all, thank you for having me.
I have to say that this report is the second I write on — and I present to the United Nations on the topic of genocide. And it has been very reluctantly that I’ve taken on the responsibility to be the chronicler of — the chronicler of an unfolding genocide in Gaza.
In March this year, I concluded that there were reasonable grounds to believe that Israel had committed at least three acts of genocide in Gaza, like killing members of the protected group, Palestinians; inflicting severe bodily and mental harm; and creating conditions of life that would lead to the destruction of the group. And the reason why I identified these were not just war crimes and crimes against humanity is because I identified an intent to destroy.
And I understand that even in this country, people are quite confused about what is genocidal intent, because it’s not a motive. One can have many motives to commit a crime. And I understand genocide is a very insidious one, and it’s difficult to identify what’s a motive. But this is not about the motives. The intent to commit genocide is the determination to destroy, which is fully evident in — especially in the Gaza Strip, as I identified in — as argued in March already.
The reason why I continue to write about genocide — and, in fact, this report walks on the heels of the previous one — is in order to better explain the intent, especially state intent, because there is another misunderstanding that there should be a trial of the alleged perpetrators in order to have — to attribute responsibility to a state.
No, because not only you have had acts committed that should have been prevented by the — in a rule of law, in a proclaimed rule of law system like Israel, where there is the government, the Parliament, the judiciary, working as checks and balances, genocide has not only been not prevented, [it] has been enabled through the various organs of the state.
And I explain what has happened as of October 7, which has provided the opportunity to escalate violence, to build on the rage and on the fury of many Israelis, turning the soldiers into willful executioners, is that there was already a plan, hatred.
I mean, the Palestinians, like Ilan Pappé says, are victims not of war, but of a political ideology that has been unleashed. Palestinians have always been an unwanted encumbrance in the Israeli mindset, because they are an obstacle both as an identity and as legal status to the realisation of Greater Israel as a state for Jewish Israelis only.
NERMEEN SHAIKH:So, we’ll go back to — because I do want to ask about the Israeli state institutions that you name and the branches of the Israeli state that have been involved in forming this state’s intent. But if you could elaborate on the point that you make, the difference between intent and motive, and in particular what you say in the report about how it’s critical to determine genocidal intent, “by way of inference”?
You know, that’s a different phrasing than one has heard in all of this conversation about genocide so far. If you explain what you mean by that and what such a determination makes possible? So, rather than just looking at genocidal intent in other forms, what it means to infer genocidal intent?
FRANCESCA ALBANESE: So, first of all, what constitutes genocide is established by Article II of the Genocide Convention, which creates a twofold obligation for member states, to prevent genocide so genocide doesn’t have to complete itself. When there is a manifestation of intent, even genocidal intent, there is already an obligation to intervene, because a crime is unfolding.
And then there is an obligation to punish. How the jurisprudence, especially after Rwanda and after former Yugoslavia, there have been cases both for criminal proceedings, where individual perpetrators have been investigated and tried, and [the] responsibility of the state, litigated before the International Court of Justice. This is how the jurisprudence on genocide has developed.
And the intent has been further elaborated upon what the Genocide Convention says. And while it might be difficult to have direct intent, meaning to have — it’s difficult but not impossible, in fact, to have a state official say, “Yes, let’s go and destroy everyone” — although I do believe that there is direct intent in this genocide in Gaza.
But the court also established that genocide can be inferred from the scale of the attack on the people, the nature of the attack, the general conduct. And what it says is that normally there should be a holistic approach in order to identify intent, which is exactly what I’ve done.
And indeed, this is why I proposed in this report what I called the triple lens approach. We need to look at the conduct, like the totality of the conduct, instead of studying with a microscope each and every crime. We need to look at the whole, against the totality of the people, the Palestinians as such, in the totality of the land, that Israel has slated as its own by divine design.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: No, absolutely. And then, if you could — the other precedent you’ve just spoken about — of course, Rwanda and former Yugoslavia — another case that you cite in the International Court of Justice is The Gambia v. Myanmar. So, how is that comparable to what we see happening in Gaza? Why is that a relevant example and different from both Rwanda and former Yugoslavia?
FRANCESCA ALBANESE: Let me tell you what I see as the major differences in the case of Israel, because it’s a very complex discussion. But in all four cases, there is a toxic combination of hatred, ideological hatred, which has informed political doctrines. And this is true in all the various contexts we are mentioning. The other common element is that there is [a] combination of crimes. Like, forced displacement is not an act of genocide per se, but the jurisprudence says that it can contribute to corroborate the intent.
But, again, mass killing or mass destruction of property, torture and other crimes against a person, which translate into an infliction of physical and mental harm to the group, not individuals as such, but individuals as part of the group, these are common elements to all genocides.
What I find characteristic in this one is, first of all, this is not — I mean, the state of Israel is not Myanmar and is not Rwanda 30 years ago. This is not war-torn former Yugoslavia. This is a state which has a separation of powers, different organs, as I said, checks and balances. And let me give you a specific example, because you asked me to comment on the state functions.
In January this year, the International Court of Justice issued a set of preliminary measures in the context of its identification, before even looking at the merits of the case initiated by South Africa for Israel’s breach, alleged breach, of the Genocide Convention, which identified the plausibility of risk for the rights protected — of the rights of the Palestinians protected under the Genocide Convention, which means plausibility — it’s semantics, but it’s plausibility that genocide might be committed against the Palestinians in Gaza.
And the provisional measures included an obligation to investigate and prosecute the various cases of incitement, genocidal incitement, that the court had already identified. And it mentions leaders, senior leaders, of the Israeli state. Has there been any investigation? Has there been any prosecution?
But I’m telling you more. The genocidal statements didn’t resonate as shocking in the Israeli public, not only because there was rage, an enormous rage and animosity, of course. I mean, this is understandable, that the facts of October 7 were brutal and traumatized the people.
But at the same time, hatred against the Palestinians and hate speech, it’s not something that started on October 7. I do remember, and I do remember the shock I felt because no one was reacting, and years ago, there were Israeli ministers talking of — freely, of killing, justifying the killing of Palestinians’ mothers and children because they would turn into terrorists.
AMY GOODMAN: Francesca Albanese, talk about the title of your report, Genocide as Colonial Erasure.
FRANCESCA ALBANESE: This is another element which I think — and, in fact, it’s the most important, where we see the difference between this genocide and others, because there is a settler-colonial component. And again, if you look at what the International Court of Justice in July this year concluded, when it decided that the — when it found that Israel’s 57 years of occupation in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem is unlawful and needs to be withdrawn totally and unconditionally, as rapidly as possibly, which the General Assembly says by September 2025.
The court said that it amounts to — that the colonies amount to — have led to a process of annexation and racial segregation and apartheid. And these are the features of settler colonialism, the taking of the land, the taking of the resources, displacing the local population and replacing it. This has been a feature.
Now, it is in this context that we need to analyse what is happening today. And by the way, don’t believe, don’t listen only to Francesca Albanese. Listen to what these Israeli leaders and ministers are saying — reoccupying Gaza, retaking Gaza, recolonising Gaza, reconquesting Gaza. This is what they are saying.
And there are settlers on expeditions, not only to Gaza but also to Lebanon. So, this is why I say that the main difference, the main feature of this genocide, apart all the horrible aspects of it, is that this is the first settler-colonial genocide to be ever litigated before a court, an international court.
And this is why coming to this country, which is a country birthed from a genocide, when I meet the Native Americans, for example, I feel the pain of these people. And I say if we manage to build on the intersectionality of Indigenous struggle, the cry for justice behind this case for Palestine will resonate even louder, because it will somewhat be an act of atonement from the settler-colonial endeavor, which has sprouted out of Europe, toward Indigenous peoples. So there is a lot of symbolism behind it.
NERMEEN SHAIKH:And, you know, the analogy — first of all, you talked about the case brought by South Africa, so what they share, apart from South Africa and Israel-Palestine, is both the fact that they were colonial-settler states, as well as the fact that apartheid has been established as having occurred in both places.
Now, in the case of South Africa, it was a decision that was taken by the United Nations at the time of apartheid, was unseating South Africa from the General Assembly. There have been calls now to do the same with Israel. So, if you could — if you could comment on that?
And then, I just want to quote another short sentence from your report, in which you say, “As the world watches the first live-streamed settler-colonial genocide, only justice can heal the wounds that political expedience has allowed to fester.” So, if you could talk about the International Court of Justice’s case in that context, what role you think they can play, South Africa’s case, in resolving or addressing — seeing and addressing this wound?
FRANCESCA ALBANESE: First of all, let me unpack the question of the unseating Israel, because this is one of the recommendations I made in my report. Under Article 6 of the UN Charter, a member state can be suspended of its credentials or its membership by the General Assembly upon recommendation of the UN Security Council. And the first criticism I got is that we cannot do that, because every states commit international law violations. Absolutely. Absolutely.
But there are two striking features here. First, Israel is quite unique in maintaining an unlawful occupation, which has deemed such by — in at least one full occasion, but again, there was already a case brought before the ICJ in 2004, so there have been two ICJ advisory opinions.
There is a pending case for genocide. There has been the violations of hundreds of resolutions by the — on Israel — over occupied Palestinian territory, by the Security Council, the General Assembly, the Human Rights Council, and steady violation of international humanitarian law, human rights law, the Apartheid Convention, the Genocide Convention. So this is quite unique.
But all the more, this year alone, Israel has conducted an attack, an unprecedented attack, against the United Nations. It has attacked physically, through artillery, weapons, bombs, UN premises. Seventy percent of UNRWA offices and UNRWA buildings, clinics, distribution centers have been hit and shelled by the Israeli army.
Two hundred and thirty UN staff members have been killed by Israel in Gaza alone. UN peacekeepers in Lebanon have been attacked. And this doesn’t even take into account the smear, the defamation against senior UN officials, the declaration of the secretary-general as persona non grata, the referring to the General Assembly as a “cloak of antisemites”.
Again, this has mounted to a level — the hubris against the United Nations and international law has been unchecked and unbounded forever, but now, especially after the Knesset passed a law outlawing UNRWA, declaring UNRWA a terrorist organisation, and therefore disabling it from its capacity to deliver aid and assistance especially in Gaza and the West Bank and East Jerusalem, this is the nail in the coffin of the UN Charter.
And it can also contribute to that sense of colonial erasure, because here it’s not just at stake the function of a UN body — and UNRWA is a subsidiary body of the General Assembly, so it’s even more serious. But there is the capacity of UNRWA to deliver humanitarian aid in a desperate situation, and also the fact that UNRWA is seen by Israel as the symbol of Palestinian identity, especially the Palestinian refugees. So there is an attempt to erase Palestinianness, including by hitting UNRWA.
AMY GOODMAN: I want to ask you about your trip here, as we begin to wrap up. The US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, quoted on — tweeted on Tuesday, “As UN Special Rapporteur Albanese visits New York, I want to reiterate the US belief she is unfit for her role. The United Nations should not tolerate antisemitism from a UN-affiliated official hired to promote human rights.” If you can further address their charge of antisemitism against you?
FRANCESCA ALBANESE: Yeah.
AMY GOODMAN: And talk about what happened. You were supposed to come to Congress and speak and brief them, but that was cancelled this week.
FRANCESCA ALBANESE: Yes, it was canceled. But let me — first of all, I’m very embarrassed to read this, because a senior US official who writes this, I mean, it shows a little bit of desperation. I’m sorry, but, you know, I’m very candid.
And let me unpack my antisemitism for the audience. So, what I’ve been accused of — the reason why I’ve been accused of antisemitism — is because I’ve allegedly compared the Jews to the Nazis. Never done. Never done.
What I’ve said, what I’ve done is saying, and I keep on saying, that history is repeating itself. I’ve never done such a comparison where I draw the parallel. It’s on the behaviour of member states who have the legal and moral obligation to prevent atrocities, including an unfolding genocide.
In the past, they have done nothing — nothing — until the end of the Second World War, to prevent the genocide of the Jews and the Roma and Sinti. And they’ve done nothing to prevent the genocide of the Bosnians.
And they’ve done nothing to prevent the genocide of the Rwandans. And they are doing the same today. This is where I insist that now, compared to when there was the Holocaust, now we have a human rights framework that should prevent this. The Genocide Convention to prevent this. So, this is one of the points.
The second point, — which leads to portray me as an antisemite, which is really offensive — is that I’ve said that October 7 was not — I’ve contested, I’ve challenged the argument that October 7 was an antisemitic attack. October 7 was a crime, was heinous. And again, I’ve condemned the acts that were directed against the Israeli civilians, and expressed solidarity with the victims, with the families. I’ve been in contact with the families of the hostages.
But I’ve also said the hatred that led that attack, that prompted that attack, to the extent it hit civilians, not the military, but it was prompted not by the fact that the Israelis are Jews, but the fact that the Israelis — I mean, the Israelis are part of that endeavor that has kept the Palestinians in a cage for 17 years and, before, under martial law for 37 years. And Palestinians have tried — it’s true they have used violence, but before violence, they have tried dialogue. They have tried collaboration. They have tried a number of means to access justice, and they have gone nowhere.
I can — I mean, let me relate just this case, because last year I worked with children. And someone who was 17 years old before October 7 last year had never set foot out of Gaza. This is the reality. And I spoke with children while I was writing my report on “unchilding”, the experience of Palestinians under Israeli occupation. And one of them — I mean, there were these two girls fighting, because one of them had been able to go to Israel and the West Bank because she had cancer and could be treated, and the other was jealous, because, she said, “At least she was sick, and she could go, she could travel. I’ve never seen the mountains.”
And again, this doesn’t justify violence, but, please, please, put things in context. And even Israeli scholars have said claiming that October 7 was prompted by antisemitism is a way to decontextualize history and to deresponsibilise Israel.
I condemn Israel not because it’s a Jewish state. It’s not about that, but because it’s in breach of international law through and through. And were the majority of Israelis Buddhists, Christians, atheists, it would be the same. I would be as vocal as I am now.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: Francesca, just one last question, and we only have a minute. Your recent book, J’Accuse, you take the title, of course, from the letter Émile Zola wrote during the Dreyfus Affair to the French president. You came under severe criticism for the choice of that title. Could you explain why you chose it and what it means in this context?
FRANCESCA ALBANESE: Absolutely. I have the sense that whatever I say comes under scrutiny and criticism. But J’Accuse is — first of all, it’s the title that was proposed by the editor, the publisher. And I was against it until October 7.
When I saw the narrative, the dehumanization of the Palestinians after October 7, and what it was legitimising, I said, “This is the title. We need to use it,” because I draw the parallel between what is happening to the Palestinians and what has happened to other groups, particularly the Jewish people in Europe.
I say the Holocaust was not just about the concentration camps. The Holocaust was a culmination of centuries of discrimination, and the previous decades had led the Jewish people in Europe to be kicked out of jobs, professions, to be treated like subhumans, as animals. And it’s this dehumanisation that we need to look at in the face today, in the eyes today, and recognise as leading to atrocity crimes.
AMY GOODMAN: We want to thank you for being with us, Francesca Albanese, UN Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territory.
Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region
HKETO Brussels supports Hong Kong films during Asian Film Festival Barcelona in Spain HKETO Brussels supports Hong Kong films during Asian Film Festival Barcelona in Spain *************************************************************************************
The Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in Brussels (HKETO, Brussels) supported the 12th Asian Film Festival Barcelona, which is taking place in Barcelona, Spain, from October 24 to November 3, 2024. Seven Hong Kong movies are supported by Brussels ETO in the Festival, namely “The Narrow Road”, “Fly Me to the Moon”, “Dust to Dust”, “Love Lies”, “Where the Wind Blows”, “Cinema Strada” and “Time Still Turns the Pages”. “Time Still Turns the Pages” has been selected as the closing film of the Festival this year. Brussels ETO hosted a reception on November 2 (Barcelona time) for about 100 guests from the local film, cultural and business sectors. Speaking at the reception, Assistant Representative Mr Paul Leung said that Hong Kong is an East-meets-West centre for international cultural exchange and an Asian front-runner in global film history. “To enhance the development of the film industry, the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region has been supporting the film industry through the Film Development Fund in four strategic directions, namely nurturing talent, enhancing local production, expanding markets and building audiences,” added Mr Leung. He highlighted the recently launched Hong Kong-Europe-Asian Film Collaboration Funding Scheme, which subsidises film projects co-produced by filmmakers from European and Asian countries to produce films featuring Hong Kong, European and Asian cultures. The scheme aims to support Hong Kong films in expanding to overseas markets. The Asian Film Festival in Barcelona is celebrating its 12th anniversary this year. It is one of the major film festivals in Barcelona dedicated to Asian movies.
Hong Kong recorded nearly 32.6 million visitor arrivals in the first three quarters of this year, marking a year-on-year increase of nearly 40 percent, data from the Hong Kong Tourism Board showed Thursday. Among the total arrivals, over 25.2 million were from the Chinese mainland, increasing by some 35 percent year on year, while visitor arrivals from elsewhere surged by 59 percent during the period. In September alone, Hong Kong recorded nearly 3.1 million visitor arrivals, reflecting a 10-percent rise compared to the same month last year, with approximately half of these arrivals consisting of overnight visitors. Notably, in the first three quarters, the number of visitor arrivals from South Korea exceeded 592,000, representing a year-on-year increase of 171.3 percent, while visitor arrivals from France surpassed 93,700, representing a year-on-year growth of 73.6 percent.
Attendees take part in the “Science and Technology for Risk-Informed Sustainable Development” thematic session at the 2024 World Science and Technology Development Forum (WSTDF), in Beijing, Oct. 24, 2024. [Photo courtesy of WSTDF] The 2024 World Science and Technology Development Forum (WSTDF) held a thematic session in Beijing on Oct. 24 focused on “Science and Technology for Risk-Informed Sustainable Development.” Leading representatives of policymakers, scholars and private sector took part in the event, discussing how to mobilize science and technology to navigate emerging global risks and build a safer, more inclusive and sustainable future. The session was hosted by the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR), the International Society for Digital Earth (ISDE) and the International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals (CBAS), and supported by the International Science Council (ISC) and the U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). Salvatore Arico, CEO of the ISC, and Marco Toscano-Rivalta, head of UNDRR’s Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, co-chaired the event, and it was co-moderated by IRDR Executive Director Yang Saini and Senior Science Officer Han Qunli. Collaboration and shared solutions for global risks As climate change accelerates and disaster risks become more complex, the importance of international scientific cooperation grows ever more crucial. Wu Guoxiong, an academician at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and a researcher at the CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics, highlighted the significance of international cooperation in early warnings for disasters. He pointed to the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project as a successful model of global collaboration. Countries including China, the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan participate in the project, which allows real-time comparisons of their climate prediction models, improving collective capacity to address climate-related disasters. Rajib Shaw, chair of the UNDRR Asia-Pacific Scientific and Technical Advisory Group, emphasized the need for increased global cooperation to bridge technological divides. He noted that technologies such as artificial intelligence and drones are vital for disaster risk reduction, yet many Global South countries lack access to these advanced tools, making the collaboration essential. Manon Burger, biochemistry publishing director for Elsevier, underlined the importance of open access to scientific research in fostering global knowledge sharing. “We publish more than 3,000 journals, many of which are available open access, ensuring that researchers worldwide can stay updated on the latest scientific advancements,” Burger said. She also introduced Elsevier Foundation, which has partnered with over 100 institutions in 70 countries since it was established in 2005, offering approximately $16 million in funding for initiatives supporting climate action and inclusive health care. Josephine Ngaira, professor of geography (climatology) in the School of Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance at Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology in Kenya, stressed the need to address the specific challenges of grassroots communities and vulnerable populations in disaster risk management. She advocated for inclusive models that ensure technological benefits reach all levels of society, advancing sustainable development worldwide. DRR education and empowerment of young professionals Young people are a driving force behind technological innovation and sustainable development. Shabhaz Khan, director of the UNESCO Regional Office for East Asia, stated that the youth is highly recognized by the United Nations, and can be mobilized and engaged in pilot disaster research activities. Salvatore Arico, CEO of the ISC, underscored the importance of interdisciplinary training for young researchers. He pointed out that current education systems often remain siloed within single disciplines, whereas solving complex global issues requires interdisciplinary research and training. He advocated for education reforms to provide young scientists with more diverse learning opportunities and to encourage cross-sector exploration. Khamarrul Azahari Razak, director of Malaysia’s Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Center, emphasized the importance of investing in human resources and listening to the voices of young people. Meanwhile, professor Christopher Garimoi Orach from the School of Public Health at Makerere University in Uganda, highlighted the need to strengthen disaster risk management education in developing countries, particularly at the higher education level. He noted that training specialists in disaster risk reduction is crucial for future global risk preparedness. Building social resilience through government policies In tackling global risks, national policies and government support are the keys. Robert Walker, fellow of the Royal Society of Arts and the Academy of Social Sciences Academy of UK and professor at the University of Oxford, stated that social policy should focus on enhancing social resilience by providing people with a sense of security, thus reducing their anxieties and enabling them to contribute to disaster risk reduction. Walker praised China’s efforts in promoting social security and resilience through advancing common prosperity, poverty reduction and energy transition. Salvatore Arico further emphasized that collaboration between governments, communities and scientists is essential for addressing global challenges such as climate change, land degradation and declining water quality. He noted that considering the practical applicability of scientific methods from the beginning of policy design would help enhance implementation effectiveness and ensure technology-driven progress. Rajib Shaw called for greater adaptability in governance mechanisms. Given the existing gap between sci-tech advancements and governance structures, he suggested policy adjustments from governments to facilitate adaptive governance, thus ensuing effective application of scientific tools in disaster risk reduction and management.
At the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang, foreign leaders including Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene and Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic will attend the opening ceremony of the 7th China International Import Expo (CIIE) and relevant events, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning announced Sunday.
The 7th CIIE will be held in Shanghai from Nov. 5 to 10. Enditem
Secretary for Financial Services & the Treasury Christopher Hui will depart on a visit to Switzerland today, and will return to Hong Kong on Friday.
In Geneva, Mr Hui will attend and speak at the 41st session of the Intergovernmental Working Group of Experts on International Standards of Accounting & Reporting, organised by the UN Conference on Trade & Development.
He will meet top figures from international organisations, and from the financial and business sectors, to talk about the advantages of Hong Kong’s financial industries and how the city is well equipped to respond to the world’s increasing focus on sustainability.
During the visit, the treasury chief will also meet financial officials from the Swiss Government.
During Mr Hui’s absence, Under Secretary for Financial Services & the Treasury Joseph Chan will be Acting Secretary.
The Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa says it is appalling that the government has remained totally silent on Israeli military and diplomatic attacks on the United Nations.
PSNA Chair, John Minto, says the Israel parliament decision this week to ban UNRWA operations in Israel and East Jerusalem effectively closes down the major aid organisation’s desperately needed work in the Gaza Strip.
“UNRWA was set up by the United Nations to assist the hundreds of thousands Palestinian refugees expelled by Israel in 1948, pending their right of return – which Israel refuses to recognise.”
“Israel sees UNRWA as an unwelcome reminder of Palestinian national rights and has always aimed to get rid of it. Support for banning UNRWA came from the Zionist New Zealand Jewish Council earlier this year.”
Israel has also recently shelled United Nations peacekeeping positions in Lebanon and has killed an estimated 230 UNRWA workers in Gaza.
“Our government has previously stated how important UNRWA relief work is for Palestinian refugees in Gaza. The US government says the UNRWA supply of food, water and medicine is ‘irreplaceable’”.
“Yet, under no doubt as a result of Israeli lobbying, our commitment to the UN and its work is increasingly exposed as somewhere between shallow and non-existent.”
John Minto says other western governments have been critical of the UNRWA ban and the recent Israeli refusal to allow the UN secretary general Antonio Guterres to enter Israel.
Despite New Zealand having UN peace keepers in the Lebanon border areas, it failed to join the more than 40 countries which condemned the military attacks on a number of UNIFIL bases in south Lebanon last month”.
“Our government refuses to offend Israel in any way. Even major arms suppliers to Israel, particularly the US, France and the UK, have been sometimes critical of what is a genocide by Israel in Gaza.”
“In contrast, the New Zealand government blames Hamas for all the killing and destruction committed by Israel, though it also finds space to condemn Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran.”
Previous New Zealand governments have formally rebuked Israel for its violence, most recently former Foreign Minister Murry McCully in 2010 and former Prime Minister John Key in 2014, both by summoning in the Israeli ambassador.
“This time, when Israeli attacks on Gaza are becoming even more savage and sadistic by the day, our Foreign Minister and his government remains inactive and silent.”
John Minto says the Israeli war crimes in Gaza now clearly include ethnic cleansing.
“Reports of what is called the Israeli ‘General’s Plan’ are now widespread in our news media. The General’s Plan is a vile combination of military assault, starvation and exclusion of both aid workers and news media, to hide and facilitate the ‘death march’ of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from north of the Netzarim Corridor”.
“This is to prepare for a resumption of illegal Israeli colonisation in northern Gaza.”
“In September, our government voted with 123 other countries for a UN General Assembly resolution to demand that Israel withdraw from the Occupied Palestinian Territories without delay.”
“That was welcome.”
“What is not welcome is for New Zealand to then stand by when genocidal Israel carries out ethnic cleansing on a massive scale to once again spit on the UN and increase its occupation of Palestinian lands.”
Letter of the Holy Father on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the erection of the Apostolic Administration of Estonia, 03.11.2024
The following is the Letter sent by the Holy Father to Bishop Philippe Jourdan of Tallinn, on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the erection of the Apostolic Administration of Estonia:
Letter of the Holy Father
To The Most Reverend Philippe Jourdan
Bishop of Tallinn
With fond memories of my Apostolic Journey to your country in 2018, I send heartfelt greetings, together with the assurance of my spiritual closeness, to you and the entire Catholic community on the happy occasion of the hundredth anniversary of the creation of the Apostolic Administration of Estonia, recently raised to the level of a Diocese.
This significant milestone in your history marks a century of steadfast fidelity to the Catholic faith, which has enabled this small yet vibrant Church to be a source of compassion and spiritual nourishment for countless men and women across the nation. At the same time, this anniversary commemorates unwavering hope and trust in the Lord through decades of suffering, occupation and oppression.
In this regard, as you reflect upon these past hundred years, I join you in giving thanks to Almighty God for the example of faith offered by your courageous and resilient forefathers who were instrumental in nurturing and sustaining the Catholic community in Estonia. In a particular way, I think of Servant of God Archbishop Eduard Profittlich, whose witness to Christ and fortitude in remaining close to his flock, even to the shedding of his blood, sowed seeds which even today are bearing fruit. May his testimony always be a source of inspiration for you and remind you that even the tiniest of plants, the smallest of gestures and the lowliest of offerings can grow far beyond their humble beginnings to bestow a rich harvest (cf. Mt 13:31-32).
Moreover, I am confident that this admirable legacy of faith and charity that characterizes your Diocese will encourage the present generation of priests, religious and lay faithful to continue to grow in joyful missionary discipleship as they look to the future. Indeed, may the present centenary be an opportunity for spiritual renewal in your land, igniting a renewed sense of zeal for evangelization, especially among young people. In this way, they will more effectively be able to proclaim God’s message of love, mercy, and reconciliation, and so, bring the light of Jesus and the liberating power of the Gospel to the many men and women of today who do not even believe in God.
It is likewise my hope that as the Catholics of Estonia seek to build a society rooted in peace, justice, solidarity, and the dignity of every human person, they will work increasingly with the men and women of other Christian denominations in bearing a united witness to God’s promises. This is especially important in the context of today’s war in Europe, which is a source of deep anxiety and tragically echoes the darker moments of yesteryears. Even so, the Holy Spirit can guide you to be an eloquent sign of continued trust in God’s providence and lead Estonian Christians, together with all people of good will, to extend the hand of friendship to refugees and the most vulnerable of our brothers and sisters. May Christ the Prince of Peace bless you with his gifts of perseverance, fraternal unity and concord.
With these sentiments, it is my fervent prayer that the grace of God will continue to accompany you, the clergy, religious, and lay faithful of the Church in Estonia, as you embark upon the next chapter of your journey full of faith, hope, and love. Entrusting all of you to the intercession of Saint Victor and to the loving protection of Mary, Mother of the Church, I gladly impart my Blessing as pledge of abundant heavenly graces.
Rome, Saint John Lateran, 1 November 2024
FRANCIS
Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments
The UK Minister for the Overseas Territories, Stephen Doughty, will announce new support for Anguilla’s health and security infrastructure as he makes his first visit to the Overseas Territories this week (2-4 November).
UK Overseas Territories Minister will open Anguilla’s new emergency 911 control room and announce funding for new ambulances to be provided by February 2025
Further funding will finance an additional search and rescue vessel for Anguilla’s maritime search and rescue service
Visit to UK-funded high school and airport to take place as minister assesses impact and progress
The UK Minister for the Overseas Territories, Stephen Doughty, will announce new support for Anguilla’s health and security infrastructure as he makes his first visit to the Overseas Territories this week (2-4 November).
The minister will be opening Anguilla’s new emergency 911 control room, partly funded by the UK government, and a facility that will be vital asset in helping to improve public safety. He will also formally announce the UK government’s provision of two new ambulances to Anguilla, and a new boat for assisting with coastal search and rescue operations.
UK Overseas Territories Minister, Stephen Doughty said:
“UK funding for Anguilla is helping islanders live healthier, safer, and more prosperous lives.
“The new support I will announce is just the latest chapter in the UK’s close relationship with Anguilla, with sustainable investment and close partnership at its heart.”
The minister will make a stop at the Royal Anguilla Police and National Emergency Operating Centre, where he will commend the force for their efforts in reducing gang violence in recent months. The UK has funded seven UK officers to help the Royal Anguilla Police Force tackle gang violence and conduct investigations on the island.
The Minister will also visit the Princess Alexandra Hospital, where he will hear about the challenges faced by those working in Anguilla’s healthcare sector. UK funding has already provided a dialysis unit, reconstruction lab, isolation ward, and a new morgue, which will significantly improve coronial and post-mortem processes.
The Honourable Ginette Petitpas Taylor, Minister of Veterans Affairs and Associate Minister of National Defence, and the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, issued a statement to mark the 80th anniversary of the Liberation of Belgium.
Ottawa, ON– Today, the Honourable Ginette Petitpas Taylor, Minister of Veterans Affairs and Associate Minister of National Defence, and the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, issued the following statement to mark the 80th anniversary of the Liberation of Belgium:
“The fall of 1944 was a defining period for the First Canadian Army. After clearing coastal areas in northern France following the successful D-Day landings and the Battle of Normandy, tens of thousands of Canadian troops played a leading role in opening the Scheldt Estuary toward the Belgian port of Antwerp.
“Not only did maintaining such a vital supply line allow the Allied armies to continue their push toward Germany, it also helped to ultimately free Western Europe from more than four years of Nazi occupation.
“Eighty years ago today, the people of Belgium were finally liberated. For weeks, Canadian soldiers fought their way across flat, muddy and flooded terrain that offered them little cover as they advanced. Undeterred by the challenges they faced, they succeeded in clearing the Breskens Pocket and liberate the last portions of Belgian territory held by enemy troops, on 3 November 1944.
“The victory was costly, with the Canadian army accruing thousands of casualties including more than 800 Canadian soldiers making the ultimate sacrifice in battle in Belgium. To this day, we remain grateful that our friends and allies in Belgium continue to honour the memory of the hundreds of Canadian service members who were laid to rest at in cemeteries like Adegem Canadian War Cemetery and Schoonselhof Cemetery.
“The lasting bond between our countries was forged by thousands of Canadians and Belgians who bravely fought for freedom during the Second World War. Canadians like Edna Beattie who enlisted in 1940, and served as a nurse in England, France and later Belgium where she treated Allied wounded, and Joseph Ross who served with the Queen’s Own Rifles of Canada helping liberate the Breskens Pocket.
“Today, we remember them and their families, and all they endured to liberate Belgium and Europe.”
The Secretary-General is very concerned about reports of troops from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea being sent to the Russian Federation, including their possible deployment to the conflict zone. This would represent a very dangerous escalation of the war in Ukraine.
Everything must be done to avoid any internationalization of this conflict.
The Secretary-General reiterates his support for all meaningful efforts towards a just, lasting and comprehensive peace in Ukraine, in line with the UN Charter, international law and resolutions of the General Assembly.
he Secretary-General is very concerned about reports of troops from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea being sent to the Russian Federation, including their possible deployment to the conflict zone. This would represent a very dangerous escalation of the war in Ukraine.
Everything must be done to avoid any internationalization of this conflict.
The Secretary-General reiterates his support for all meaningful efforts towards a just, lasting and comprehensive peace in Ukraine, in line with the UN Charter, international law and resolutions of the General Assembly.
Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader and MP for Te Tai Hauāuru, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is calling on the Mayor for New Plymouth, Neil Holdom, to do the right thing.
“I am shocked at his decision to disregard the petition presented by Palestine Solidarity Taranaki calling for an immediate and permanent ceasefire”, said Ngarewa-Packer.
“The group made up of his constituents have shown up week after week at Puke Ariki Landing for over a year to stand against the genocide taking place in Gaza, and the killing now extending to Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.
“They have worked with other Palestine Solidarity Network groups who have successfully garnered support from their local councils. They gathered 1800 signatures from local supporters and endorsements from two Iwi, church groups and Taranaki Muslim Association.
“These are your constituents, your people.
“This process unfairly removes the ability for input of hardworking and empathetic councillors who may have chosen to vote in support of this group.
“Unfortunately, this action mirrors what is happening with the current Government – removing due process, disallowing input by those most affected and most informed and harming those who already suffer the most. Fast-tracking and bypassing.
“I refuse to accept that this is not a council issue. This is an everyone issue… this is an absolute issue of human rights.
“In Gaza there have been at least 43 000 killed, over 100 000 injured, over 10 000 missing, almost the entire population displaced and faced with starvation. This is a human issue.
“We have seen successful support from other councils around Aotearoa such as Whanganui and Christchurch and the Mayor himself has in the past shown support for Ukraine, citing the need to support his constituents who may be affected.
“We must afford that same curtesy to Palestinians, their friends, whānau, and advocates within your own community.
“As Te Pāti Māori co-leader and MP for Te Tai Hauāuru I stand wholeheartedly in solidarity with the indigenous peoples of Palestine and stand against colonial forces.
“I urge New Plymouth Mayor to reconsider his position, show his humanity and afford New Plymouth District Council the opportunity to stand on the right side of history”, concludes Ngarewa-Packer.
Monday 11 November 2024 is an opportunity to remember the Armistice of 1918 that ended four horrific years of the First World War.
This year’s national Armistice Day commemoration will also mark 20 years since our Unknown Warrior returned to New Zealand and was laid to rest at the National War Memorial in Wellington. Public are welcome to attend the ceremony that will take place at his Tomb.
“The Tomb of the Unknown Warrior is a poignant symbol of remembrance. The soldier is one of 9000 New Zealanders killed overseas with no known graves and represents all New Zealanders who have died in wartime,” says Leauanae Laulu Mac Leauanae, Secretary and Chief Executive Manatū Taonga Ministry for Culture and Heritage.
The Armistice is marked at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month, commemorating the moment First World War hostilities ceased. It is a time to acknowledge the trauma and loss of that war, and all the subsequent conflicts and peacekeeping operations in which New Zealanders have been involved.
“It is an opportunity to reflect on our shared war experiences with other nations and to reaffirm our hopes for global peace and security.
“Armistice Day, and the Tomb of the Unknown Warrior, represent what should never be forgotten, the sacrifices of the past in pursuit of a better future,” says Leauanae.
Interview requests:
Event information:
Public who are interested in attending the Armistice Day commemoration should arrive at the Tomb of the Unknown Warrior at Pukeahu National War Memorial Park by 10:45am for a 10:55am start.
In the event of bad weather, the ceremony will be held inside the Hall of Memories.
About Armistice Day:
The First World War ended with the signing of an armistice between Germany and the Allies on 11 November 1918.
New Zealand’s Unknown Warrior:
The Tomb of the Unknown Warrior contains the remains of an unidentified New Zealand soldier exhumed from Caterpillar Valley Cemetery in the Somme region of northern France.
He was reinterred at the National War Memorial on 11 November 2004.
The soldier is one of 9000 New Zealanders killed overseas with no known graves and represents all New Zealanders who have died in wartime.
The tomb was designed by sculptor Kingsley Baird and is made of marble, granite, pounamu (greenstone) and bronze. The design was inspired by the Southern Cross constellation, the stars of which guide the warrior back home to New Zealand.
The Prime Minister is set to announce an additional £75 million to boost border security, bringing the investment in the Border Security Command over the next two years to £150 million.
PM to outline major investments to smash criminal smuggling gangs at INTERPOL General Assembly in Glasgow
New capabilities for Border Security Command from £150 million funding pot to drive down Organised Immigration Crime both at home and overseas
New additional funding will cover state-of-the-art tech and information centres, boosts to enforcement and intelligence resourcing and expanding CPS capacity
The Prime Minister is set to announce an additional £75 million to boost border security, bringing the investment in the Border Security Command over the next two years to £150 million.
Marking the first time the INTERPOL General Assembly has been hosted in the UK in over 50 years, Keir Starmer will today (4 November) open the Assembly in Glasgow by setting out his personal mission to smash the people smuggling gangs by resetting the UK’s whole approach to this challenge and intensifying international collaboration to meet the global scale of the threat.
The General Assembly is INTERPOL’s supreme governing body and comprises senior ministerial and policing leads from the organisation’s 196 member states.
In his speech, the Prime Minister will set out his plans to draw on his experience of bringing together agencies to tackle international terrorist and drug smuggling gangs during his time as Director of Public Prosecutions to dismantle the people smuggling gangs who drive illegal migration, profit from human misery and represent a serious threat to global security.
He will also set out how the £150 million will provide additional specialist investigators and state of the art surveillance equipment to ensure those behind this criminal activity are stopped and brought to justice.
This major funding boost for the government’s new Border Security Command will initially be directed towards a range of enforcement and intelligence activity, including:
Investing heavily in NCA technology and capabilities, delivering advanced data exploitation and improvements to technologies to boost collaboration with European partners to investigate and break people smuggling networks.
300 staff for the new Border Security Command, who will strengthen global partnerships, deliver new legislation and lead the system through investment and strategy.
100 specialist investigators and intelligence officers for the NCA, dedicated to tackling criminals who facilitate people smuggling.
Creating a new specialist OIC Intelligence Source Unit which will cohere intelligence flows from key police forces.
Boosting the Crown Prosecution Service’s ability to deliver charging decisions more quickly on international organised crime cases.
The Border Security Command, led by Martin Hewitt CBE QPM, will be provided with enhanced powers – through a new Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill – to tackle organised immigration crime whilst providing for strong and effective border security.
New measures will make it easier to detect, disrupt and deter those seeking to engage in and benefit from organised immigration crime. The Command will also coordinate the work of intelligence agencies and law enforcement, who lead joint investigations with European counterparts to ensure we can bring those responsible to justice.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is expected to say:
“The world needs to wake up to the severity of this challenge. I was elected to deliver security for the British people. And strong borders are a part of that. But security doesn’t stop at our borders.
“There’s nothing progressive about turning a blind eye as men, women and children die in the Channel.
“This is a vile trade that must be stamped out – wherever it thrives. So we’re taking our approach to counter-terrorism – which we know works, and applying it to the gangs, with our new Border Security Command.
“We’re ending the fragmentation between policing, Border Force and our intelligence agencies.”
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said:
“Criminal smuggler gangs profit from undermining our border security and putting lives at risk and they have been getting away with it for far too long.
“Our new Border Security Command, with the investment set out today, will mean a huge step change in the way we target these criminal gangs. People smugglers and traffickers operate in networks across borders, that’s why we have launched a major boost to our cooperation with international partners including other European countries, the G7 and Europol, and why we are so pleased to be hosting the INTERPOL conference on tackling international crime in Glasgow today.”
The Prime Minister will also announce that the UK Government has increased its in-year support for INTERPOL’s global operations through a £6 million investment which harnesses the organisation’s unique capabilities to tackle serious organised crime affecting the UK.
Addressing the General Assembly, the Prime Minister will say that closer cooperation with international partners is key as he details how the gangs’ operations span from the money markets in Kabul through to the Kurdish region of Iraq and right across Europe and into the UK.
He will stress the government’s ongoing commitment to strengthening security agreements to facilitate greater sharing of intelligence and more joint operational work, in particular through Europol.
The Home Office will also invest £24m in the new financial year to tackle international serious organised crime affecting the UK including drugs and firearms, fraud, trafficking and exploitation. Funds will in part be used to bolster work done by special prosecutors and operational partners in the Western Balkans.
There were more than 5,000 drug related deaths in 2023, with most of the illegal drugs causing these coming from overseas or facilitated by transnational gangs. ISOC funding will also be used to tackle drug smuggling upstream and at the UK border, building on recent successes, such as the effective collaboration with the US and Ecuador, which has resulted in the seizure of 19 tonnes of cocaine.
National Crime Agency Director General Graeme Biggar said:
“Serious and organised crime causes more harm, to more people, more often than any other national security threat. And almost all of serious and organised crime now has an international nexus. Distance, borders and languages are meaningless to criminals. This is why collaborations with INTERPOL have never been as important as they are today.
“Tackling organised crime, and especially immigration crime, remains a top priority for the NCA. We are currently leading around 70 investigations into the gangs or individuals involved in the highest echelons of this type of criminality, and we are devoting more resources to it than ever before.
“We have built up our intelligence sharing effort with law enforcement partners across Europe and beyond, including having more NCA officers based overseas, sharing intelligence and working side by side on joint investigations. This approach is bringing operational results with arrests and prosecutions, but we are also we are seeking to disrupt the people smugglers’ business model, through targeting their social media offering, their supply routes for equipment, and their financial flows.
“We are determined to do all we can to disrupt and dismantle these networks, wherever they operate.”
The announcement comes just a month after Britain joined up to a new G7 anti migrant smuggling action plan which included pledges to bolster border security, combat transnational organised crime, and protect vulnerable individuals from exploitation by smugglers.
The plan includes new, intelligence-led joint investigative actions to target criminal smuggling routes, working with social media platforms and internet providers to remove harmful content promoting illegal migration services or advertising fake job opportunities, and strengthening capabilities to monitor and anticipate irregular migration flows at both global and regional levels.
Source: United Kingdom – Prime Minister’s Office 10 Downing Street
The Prime Minister is set to announce an additional £75 million to boost border security, bringing the investment in the Border Security Command over the next two years to £150 million.
PM to outline major investments to smash criminal smuggling gangs at INTERPOL General Assembly in Glasgow
New capabilities for Border Security Command from £150 million funding pot to drive down Organised Immigration Crime both at home and overseas
New additional funding will cover state-of-the-art tech and information centres, boosts to enforcement and intelligence resourcing and expanding CPS capacity
The Prime Minister is set to announce an additional £75 million to boost border security, bringing the investment in the Border Security Command over the next two years to £150 million.
Marking the first time the INTERPOL General Assembly has been hosted in the UK in over 50 years, Keir Starmer will today (4 November) open the Assembly in Glasgow by setting out his personal mission to smash the people smuggling gangs by resetting the UK’s whole approach to this challenge and intensifying international collaboration to meet the global scale of the threat.
The General Assembly is INTERPOL’s supreme governing body and comprises senior ministerial and policing leads from the organisation’s 196 member states.
In his speech, the Prime Minister will set out his plans to draw on his experience of bringing together agencies to tackle international terrorist and drug smuggling gangs during his time as Director of Public Prosecutions to dismantle the people smuggling gangs who drive illegal migration, profit from human misery and represent a serious threat to global security.
He will also set out how the £150 million will provide additional specialist investigators and state of the art surveillance equipment to ensure those behind this criminal activity are stopped and brought to justice.
This major funding boost for the government’s new Border Security Command will initially be directed towards a range of enforcement and intelligence activity, including:
Investing heavily in NCA technology and capabilities, delivering advanced data exploitation and improvements to technologies to boost collaboration with European partners to investigate and break people smuggling networks.
300 staff for the new Border Security Command, who will strengthen global partnerships, deliver new legislation and lead the system through investment and strategy.
100 specialist investigators and intelligence officers for the NCA, dedicated to tackling criminals who facilitate people smuggling.
Creating a new specialist OIC Intelligence Source Unit which will cohere intelligence flows from key police forces.
Boosting the Crown Prosecution Service’s ability to deliver charging decisions more quickly on international organised crime cases.
The Border Security Command, led by Martin Hewitt CBE QPM, will be provided with enhanced powers – through a new Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill – to tackle organised immigration crime whilst providing for strong and effective border security.
New measures will make it easier to detect, disrupt and deter those seeking to engage in and benefit from organised immigration crime. The Command will also coordinate the work of intelligence agencies and law enforcement, who lead joint investigations with European counterparts to ensure we can bring those responsible to justice.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is expected to say:
“The world needs to wake up to the severity of this challenge. I was elected to deliver security for the British people. And strong borders are a part of that. But security doesn’t stop at our borders.
“There’s nothing progressive about turning a blind eye as men, women and children die in the Channel.
“This is a vile trade that must be stamped out – wherever it thrives. So we’re taking our approach to counter-terrorism – which we know works, and applying it to the gangs, with our new Border Security Command.
“We’re ending the fragmentation between policing, Border Force and our intelligence agencies.”
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said:
“Criminal smuggler gangs profit from undermining our border security and putting lives at risk and they have been getting away with it for far too long.
“Our new Border Security Command, with the investment set out today, will mean a huge step change in the way we target these criminal gangs. People smugglers and traffickers operate in networks across borders, that’s why we have launched a major boost to our cooperation with international partners including other European countries, the G7 and Europol, and why we are so pleased to be hosting the INTERPOL conference on tackling international crime in Glasgow today.”
The Prime Minister will also announce that the UK Government has increased its in-year support for INTERPOL’s global operations through a £6 million investment which harnesses the organisation’s unique capabilities to tackle serious organised crime affecting the UK.
Addressing the General Assembly, the Prime Minister will say that closer cooperation with international partners is key as he details how the gangs’ operations span from the money markets in Kabul through to the Kurdish region of Iraq and right across Europe and into the UK.
He will stress the government’s ongoing commitment to strengthening security agreements to facilitate greater sharing of intelligence and more joint operational work, in particular through Europol.
The Home Office will also invest £24m in the new financial year to tackle international serious organised crime affecting the UK including drugs and firearms, fraud, trafficking and exploitation. Funds will in part be used to bolster work done by special prosecutors and operational partners in the Western Balkans.
There were more than 5,000 drug related deaths in 2023, with most of the illegal drugs causing these coming from overseas or facilitated by transnational gangs. ISOC funding will also be used to tackle drug smuggling upstream and at the UK border, building on recent successes, such as the effective collaboration with the US and Ecuador, which has resulted in the seizure of 19 tonnes of cocaine.
National Crime Agency Director General Graeme Biggar said:
“Serious and organised crime causes more harm, to more people, more often than any other national security threat. And almost all of serious and organised crime now has an international nexus. Distance, borders and languages are meaningless to criminals. This is why collaborations with INTERPOL have never been as important as they are today.
“Tackling organised crime, and especially immigration crime, remains a top priority for the NCA. We are currently leading around 70 investigations into the gangs or individuals involved in the highest echelons of this type of criminality, and we are devoting more resources to it than ever before.
“We have built up our intelligence sharing effort with law enforcement partners across Europe and beyond, including having more NCA officers based overseas, sharing intelligence and working side by side on joint investigations. This approach is bringing operational results with arrests and prosecutions, but we are also we are seeking to disrupt the people smugglers’ business model, through targeting their social media offering, their supply routes for equipment, and their financial flows.
“We are determined to do all we can to disrupt and dismantle these networks, wherever they operate.”
The announcement comes just a month after Britain joined up to a new G7 anti migrant smuggling action plan which included pledges to bolster border security, combat transnational organised crime, and protect vulnerable individuals from exploitation by smugglers.
The plan includes new, intelligence-led joint investigative actions to target criminal smuggling routes, working with social media platforms and internet providers to remove harmful content promoting illegal migration services or advertising fake job opportunities, and strengthening capabilities to monitor and anticipate irregular migration flows at both global and regional levels.
The Albanese Government is boosting aviation competition, trade and tourism opportunities for Australians, securing new or updated air services arrangements with seven international markets following months of negotiations.
These arrangements will allow Australian airlines to expand their international networks and international airlines to increase operations into Australia, a boost for Australian travellers and diaspora communities.
This includes unrestricted capacity with Canada and Malaysia – the first arrangements of this type since a deal struck with India in 2018.
Along with Canada and Malaysia, arrangements have landed with Hong Kong, Chile, Mongolia, Latvia, and Rwanda.
Australia now has more than 110 bilateral air services arrangements in place with other countries or economies, with today’s announcement following recent enhanced arrangements secured in the past 12 months with Türkiye, Vietnam and Sri Lanka.
Each arrangement is negotiated to serve Australia’s national interest, with the Australian Government signing with some of our larger tourism markets, including:
Immediate increase in available capacity for airlines to 50,000 weekly passenger seats with Malaysia, and unrestricted capacity for passenger services from 2026
Immediate increase in available capacity for airlines to 50 weekly passenger services with Canada, and unrestricted capacity for passenger services from 2026
Immediate increase in available capacity for airlines to 84 passenger services per week, and unlimited cargo services with Hong Kong
A doubling of available capacity for airlines to and from Chile by 2025
Inaugural arrangements were signed between the Australian Government and the governments of Latvia, Mongolia and Rwanda, each allowing 14 passenger services per week to and from Australia along with unrestricted dedicated cargo services.
These arrangements deliver on our commitment in the Aviation White Paper to expand capacity under our bilateral air services arrangements ahead of demand,ensuring airlines have adequate time to plan for additional future services and add new routes to their schedules. It also aligns with our commitments to prioritise negotiations within our region.
These arrangements have already resulted in significant additional capacity being added into the Australian market, supporting growth in visitor numbers. For example, ABS data for the 12 months to August shows arrivals from Vietnam were 49 per cent higher than pre-pandemic, making it Australia’s fastest growing inbound visitor market.
Quotes attributable to Minister for Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government Catherine King:
“We’re expanding our international aviation network to increase competition and deliver a better experience for Australian travellers.
“Whether travelling to these countries or using them as stepping stones to the rest of the world, each of these arrangements represents a stronger connection with our global market – for travel, trade and tourism.
“We committed to this in our Aviation White Paper and today we are delivering on that commitment – landing additional capacity in the international sector.”
Quotes attributable to Senator Don Farrell, Minister for Trade and Tourism:
“Increased flights means we can welcome more visitors to Australia, boosting our tourism industry and supporting jobs and local economies, particularly in regional Australia.
“It also means we can get more cargo in the bellies of outbound flights, giving our exporters more opportunities for growth and to expand into new markets.”
Moldova’s incumbent President Maia Sandu led the country’s presidential election runoff with 54.19 percent of the votes, as most ballots have been counted by Monday morning, according to local media reports.
Former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo, the president’s main contender for the next four-year presidential term, trailed with 45.81 percent, as reported by the country’s Central Electoral Commission after counting 97.8 percent of the votes.
“I voted with Moldova, I have confidence that our citizens will choose well for our country. Today, more than ever, we must stand together, keep our peace, keep our vote, keep our independence,” said Sandu. As the former leader of the Party of Action and Solidarity, she got the most votes in the first round of the election.
Stoianoglo, who is supported by Moldova’s Socialist Party, expressed his commitment to “a free, stable, prosperous Moldova” and emphasized his support for the country’s path to European integration.
After the presidential election on Oct. 20, Moldova moved to a runoff election between the top two candidates, as none of the 11 candidates in the presidential race received an absolute majority of the votes — defined as 50 percent plus one vote — in the first round.
A car collided with a train at an unguarded railway crossing in northeastern Poland on Sunday afternoon, killing all five passengers in the vehicle on the spot, according to Warmian-Masurian province police.
According to the local media report, the car ran directly into the path of an oncoming train. The five victims included two adults and three children.
Police, prosecutors, and firefighters are working at the railway crossing in Karwica Mazurska near the historic town of Pisz, investigating the tragedy. It is not yet known why the car driver did not stop at the “STOP” sign.
Train traffic between Pisz and Spychow has been completely suspended. Traffic disruptions may last several hours due to the accident.
Expansion announced ahead of Ayr Travelling Cabinet.
Ahead of his first Travelling Cabinet since becoming First Minister, John Swinney will today (Monday) announce plans to expand the electric vehicle (EV) charging network across Ayrshire and the Glasgow City Region. A £6.3 million investment from the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Fund will lead to the introduction of approximately 3,550 new public EV charge points across the region.
The First Minister has also welcomed confirmation from charge point data provider ZapMap that Scotland has already reached its target of installing more than 6,000 public EV charge points, two years ahead of the 2026 target.
Cabinet Secretaries will visit businesses and projects across South Ayrshire to highlight their four priorities: eradicating child poverty, building prosperity, protecting the planet and improving public services. The First Minister and Transport Secretary Fiona Hyslop will visit an electric vehicle charging hub where they will meet representatives from EV infrastructure company IONITY.
The Cabinet will then go on to meet at Ayr Town Hall, followed by a public discussion.
The First Minister said:
“Today’s announcement is clear evidence of our commitment to making sustainable travel accessible for everyone in Scotland.
“We need to maintain this rapid progress, working in greater partnership with the private sector to accelerate the pace and scale of delivery right across the country.
“By fast-tracking EV infrastructure, we’re paving the way for a net-zero Scotland while advancing our goal to phase out new petrol and diesel cars by 2030.
“This is a key example of how the Scottish Government is focused on delivering on our key priorities and I am looking forward to hearing from people in Ayr about how we can continue to deliver for them.
“Connecting with communities across the country enables us to make informed decisions as we strive to create a wealthier, fairer and greener Scotland.”
Transport Secretary Fiona Hyslop said:
“In 2023, we published our Vision for public EV charging infrastructure, highlighting the key role the private sector will play in delivering Scotland’s future EV charging requirements for public charging.
“Through our £30 million EV Infrastructure Fund we are continuing to support public EV charging; providing Local Authorities with funding to enable them to work in partnership with the private sector to continue to expand public EV charging across Scotland.
“This approach is paying dividends – ensuring faster delivery and greater reliability of public charge points across the country. I’m pleased to welcome the matched investment from businesses such as IONITY which is helping to scale up the provision of public EV charging across Scotland.”
Susan Aitken, Glasgow City Region Cabinet Chair and Leader of Glasgow City Council said:
“Electric vehicles are to key to reducing carbon emissions and the expanded charging network this funding will deliver can persuade more citizens across the City Region to switch to electric.
“And in creating the biggest network of charge points across Scotland’s most populous communities we can make a real impact on our national climate targets.”
IONITY Country (UK & Ireland) Manager Andreas Atkins said:
“For Scotland to have reached its ambitious target of delivering 6,000 public chargers well ahead of its 2026 target is a huge achievement, especially in such a difficult economic environment at present in the UK.
“A continued collaborative approach between the public sector and private industry is required to tackle and deliver the roadmap for net zero transport, and IONITY will continue to play a key role in this.
“We have already injected £20 million investment in Scotland by the end of 2025, with a further £20 million committed into Scotland by 2028 – delivering 100% green electricity through our chargers from Scotland’s main cities to the West Coast and the Highlands.
“Not only will we enable electric transit right across Scotland, but our charging hub site partners, such as food and beverage retailers, retail parks and hospitality venues will directly benefit. The IONITY hubs are introducing those businesses – and wider local economies – to new revenue streams and additional footfall, bringing entire communities with us into the era of electric vehicles.”
Zapmap COO and Co-founder Melanie Shufflebotham said:
“Reaching the milestone of 6,000 public chargers across Scotland is a significant achievement, with the Scottish government showing great commitment to the EV sector with the forward-looking investment in the ChargePlace Scotland network over the last decade. This has then been supplemented with other private networks and investment across the country.
“Since the target of 6,000 public EV charge points by 2026 was announced by the Scottish Government in June 2023, charge point infrastructure has grown at an impressive rate – up over 49% from 4,023 in June 2023.
“This number covers many different charging use cases across diverse locations, from low powered on-street chargers to destination chargers at scenic spots to 150kW+ charging hubs.
“It’s exciting to see charging hubs being established across the country, from Inverness and Aberdeen in the north to around the urban centres of Glasgow and Edinburgh. This infrastructure not only supports Scottish EV drivers in their daily travels but also enables visitors to explore the stunning Scottish landscape with confidence on longer journeys.”
Background
Since 2011 the Scottish Government has invested over £65 million in public EV charging. Charge point data provider ZapMap has confirmed Scotland had 6,007 public charge points as of 31 October, delivered through a combination of public and increasing private sector investment.
As a direct result, per head of population, Scotland has more public EV charge points than any other part of the UK, except London. We also benefit from more rapid public EV charge points than any other UK region,
The Scottish public EV charging Vision was published in June 2023 and sets out our ambition to see a comprehensive, convenient and efficient network. The Scottish Government has announced a commitment to enabling approximately 24,000 additional public charge points by 2030, and we expect the majority of these to be delivered by the private sector.
Public charge points are only one part of the overall charging mix. The Scottish Government has also provided £5.7 million to support the installation of 18,861 domestic charge points and £10.8 million to support 1,432 higher powered workplace charge points – all complementing the public network.
Tens of thousands of carers can now apply for support as benefit roll-out complete.
Tens of thousands more unpaid carers in Scotland can apply for a new benefit from today (4 November).
Carer Support Payment, which is a payment of £81.90 per week paid by Social Security Scotland, has been introduced in phases since November 2023.
It has been extended to people living in 19 more local authority areas including Glasgow, Edinburgh, Orkney and the Scottish Borders.
It is now available in every local authority in the country, marking the completion of the roll-out of Scotland’s 14th benefit.
It is for unpaid carers who provide 35 or more hours of care a week to someone who gets disability benefits. Carer Support Payment, is the replacement in Scotland for Carer’s Allowance which is delivered by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP).
Unlike Carer’s Allowance, Carer Support Payment is available to some carers in education. This includes full-time students aged 20 or over and students under 20 who are in advanced or higher education.
In June, eligibility was extended to carers aged 16-19 in non-advanced education. This includes those studying for National Certificates, Highers and Advanced Highers, who meet certain criteria, for example, not having any parental support.
As part of the roll out, new backdating rules were introduced meaning that some carers – mostly full-time students – living in the new areas can apply to have their payments backdated to when Carer Support Payment was introduced.
Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, Shirley-Anne Somerville said:
“The importance of the role of unpaid carers should not be underestimated. Their work is vital to the people they look after and to society as a whole.
“I am delighted that Carer Support Payment is now available in every local authority in Scotland. Many students will now be able to get this financial support for the first time, thanks to changes made by the Scottish Government.
“I urge anyone who thinks they might be eligible to find out more.”
According to Carers Trust Scotland, it is estimated that there are around 35,000 unpaid carers attending college or university in Scotland. Paul Traynor, Head of External Affairs at Carers Trust Scotland, welcomes the national roll out. He said:
“The immense contribution of unpaid carers to society cannot be understated, providing vital caring roles to their family and friends, and helping to hold society together.
“Over 100,000 unpaid carers in Scotland are living in poverty and we hear all too often of the financial pressures of juggling studying and caring, where supplementing their income through employment is extremely challenging or not possible. Research highlights that student carers can be up to four times more likely to drop out of college or university and financial struggles are often one of the key reasons for this.
“The national roll out of Carer Support Payment will help make a significant difference to many carers’ lives and support more student carers to remain and succeed in education.”
Background
Carer Support Payment opened for new applications in further areas on 4 November. Unpaid carers in Argyll & Bute, Clackmannanshire, Dumfries & Galloway, East Dunbartonshire, East Lothian, East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh, Falkirk, Glasgow, Highland, Inverclyde, Midlothian, Orkney Islands, Renfrewshire, Scottish Borders, Shetland Islands, Stirling, West Dunbartonshire and West Lothian can now apply. Carers can find out more, and apply at https://www.mygov.scot/carer-support-payment
Changes to allow more young carers in education to access Carer Support Payment have been in force since June. Carers aged 16 to 19 in full-time ‘non advanced’ education can be eligible if they have certain exceptional circumstances – including if they have no support from parents or are responsible for a child or young person. Non-advanced education includes school and college courses such as National Certificates, Highers and Advanced Highers.
Special backdating rules for the Carer Support Payment roll out mean that carers who are not eligible for Carer’s Allowance but are eligible for Carer Support Payment, and are living in areas outside of the initial pilot areas, can apply to have their payments backdated to the date Carer Support Payment first became available. The rules are designed to stop carers missing out on money they are entitled to because they live in an area included in the later phases of the rollout.
To get fully backdated payments under these special rules, carers should apply within 13 weeks of the benefit becoming available in their area. The deadline for carers living in the new areas (Argyll & Bute, Clackmannanshire, Dumfries & Galloway, East Dunbartonshire, East Lothian, East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh, Falkirk, Glasgow, Highland, Inverclyde, Midlothian, Orkney Islands, Renfrewshire, Scottish Borders, Shetland Islands, Stirling, West Dunbartonshire and West Lothian) is 2 February 2025. Carers may still be able to get fully backdated support after this if they have a good reason for missing the deadline. The deadline for carers living in the areas where the benefit opened in August – Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire, Fife, Moray and North, East and South Ayrshire – is 17 November 2024. Carers may still be able to get fully backdated support after this if they have a good reason for missing the deadline.
Carers in Scotland who already get Carer’s Allowance will have their benefits automatically transferred to Carer Support Payment. Social Security Scotland will write to people in advance to let them know that their award will be moving.
The transfer of awards began in February this year. It is due to complete in Spring 2025.
Carers Trust Scotland works to transform the lives of unpaid carers. They partner with their network of local carer organisations to provide funding and support, deliver innovative and evidence-based programmes, raise awareness and influence policy. Supporting Carers in Scotland | Carers Trust Scotland
An aerial drone photo taken on Nov. 4, 2023 shows a view of the Hengqin International Financial Center in Zhuhai, south China’s Guangdong Province. (Xinhua/Liu Dawei)
An international photography exhibition opened on Saturday in Zhuhai, south China’s Guangdong Province, showcasing outstanding works from home and abroad.
The 19th China International Photographic Art Exhibition features 276 selected works from over 20,000 photographers representing 123 countries and regions, according to the organizers.
Alongside the main exhibit, special displays commemorate the 60th anniversary of the establishment of China-France diplomatic relations and offer insights into life in Iran. Another side event highlights the achievements of development made by Guangdong and Zhuhai in the new era.
The event, a collaboration between the China Photographers Association, the federation of literary and art circles of Guangdong and the Zhuhai municipal government, will run until Feb. 16, 2025.
As the US election unfolds, American territories such as the Northern Marianas, American Samoa, and Guam, along with the broader Pacific region, will be watching the developments.
As the question hangs in the balance of whether the White House remains blue with Kamala Harris or turns red under Donald Trump, academics, New Zealand’s US ambassador, and Guam’s Congressman have weighed in on what the election means for the Pacific.
Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies senior lecturer Dr Anna Powles said it would no doubt have an impact on small island nations facing climate change and intensified geopolitics, including the rapid expansion of military presence on its territory Guam, following the launch of an interballistic missile by China.
Pacific leaders lament the very real security threat of climate-induced natural disasters has been overshadowed by the tug-of-war between China and the US in what academics say is “control and influence” for the contested region.
Dr Powles said it came as “no surprise” that countries such as New Zealand and Australia had increasingly aligned with the US, as the Biden administration had been leveraging strategic partnerships with Australia, New Zealand, and Japan since 2018.
Despite China being New Zealand’s largest trading partner, New Zealand is in the US camp and must pay attention, she said.
“We are not seeing enough in the public domain or discussion by government with the New Zealand public about what this means for New Zealand going forward.”
Pacific leaders welcome US engagement but are concerned about geopolitical rivalry.
Earlier this month, Pacific Islands Forum Secretary-General Baron Waqa attended the South Pacific Defence Ministers meeting in Auckland.
He said it was important that “peace and stability in the region” was “prioritised”.
Referencing the arms race between China and the US, he said, “The geopolitics occurring in our region is not welcomed by any of us in the Pacific Islands Forum.”
While a Pacific Zone of Peace has been a talking point by Fiji and the PIF leadership to reinforce the region’s “nuclear-free stance”, the US is working with Australia on obtaining nuclear-submarines through the AUKUS security pact.
Dr Powles said the potential for increased tensions “could happen under either president in areas such as Taiwan, East China Sea — irrespective of who is in Washington”.
South Pacific defence ministers told RNZ Pacific the best way to respond to threats of conflict and the potential threat of a nuclear attack in the region is to focus on defence and building stronger ties with its allies.
New Zealand’s Defence Minister said NZ was “very good friends with the United States”, with that friendship looking more friendly under the Biden Administration. But will this strengthening of ties and partnerships continue if Trump becomes President?
US President Joe Biden (center) stands for a group photo with Pacific Islands Forum leaders following the Pacific Islands Forum Summit at the South Portico of the White House in Washington on September 25, 2023. Image: Jim Watson/RNZ
US President Joe Biden, center, stands for a group photo with Pacific Islands Forum leaders following the Pacific Islands Forum Summit, at the South Portico of the White House in Washington on September 25, 2023. Photo: Jim Watson
US wants a slice of Pacific Regardless of who is elected, US Ambassador to New Zealand Tom Udall said history showed the past three presidents “have pushed to re-engage with the Pacific”.
While both Trump and Harris may differ on critical issues for the Pacific such as the climate crisis and multilateralism, both see China as the primary external threat to US interests.
The US has made a concerted effort to step up its engagement with the Pacific in light of Chinese interest, including by reopening its embassies in the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Tonga.
On 12 July 2022, the Biden administration showed just how keen it was to have a seat at the table by US Vice-President Kamala Harris dialing in to the Pacific Islands Forum meeting in Fiji at the invitation of the then chair former prime minister Voreqe Bainimarama. The US was the only PIF “dialogue partner” allowed to speak at this Forum.
However, most of the promises made to the Pacific have been “forward-looking” and leaders have told RNZ Pacific they want to see less talk and more real action.
Defence diplomacy has been booming since the 2022 Solomon Islands-China security deal. It tripled the amount of money requested from Congress for economic development and ocean resilience — up to US$60 million a year for 10 years — as well as a return of Peace Corps volunteers to Fiji, Tonga, Samoa and Vanuatu.
Health security was another critical area highlighted in 2024 the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Declaration.
The Democratic Party’s commitment to the World Health Organisation (WHO) bodes well, in contrast to the previous Trump administration’s withdrawal from the WHO during the covid-19 pandemic.
It continued a long-running programme called ‘The Academy for Women Entrepreneurs’ which gives enterprising women from more than 100 countries with the knowledge, networks and access they need to launch and scale successful businesses.
While both Trump and Harris may differ on critical issues for the Pacific such as the climate crisis and multilateralism, both see China as the primary external threat to US interests. Image: 123RF/RNZ
Guam’s take Known as the tip of the spear for the United States, Guam is the first strike community under constant threat of a nuclear missile attack.
It was seen as a signal of China’s missile capabilities which had the US and South Pacific Defence Ministers on edge and deeply “concerned”.
China’s Defence Ministry said in a statement the launch was part of routine training by the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force, which oversees conventional and nuclear missile operations and was not aimed at any country or target.
The US has invested billions to build a 360-degree missile defence system on Guam with plans for missile tests twice a year over the next decade, as it looks to bolster its weaponry in competition with China.
Despite the arms race and increased military presence and weaponry on Guam, China is known to have fewer missiles than the US.
The US considers Guam a key strategic military base to help it stop any potential attacks. Image: RNZ Pacific/Eleisha Foon
However, Guamanians are among the four million disenfranchised Americans living in US territories whose vote does not count due to an anomaly in US law.
“While territorial delegates can introduce bills and advocate for their territory in the US Congress, they have no voice on the floor. While Guam is exempted from paying the US federal income tax, many argue that such a waiver does not make up for what the tiny island brings to the table,” according to a BenarNews report.
US Congressman for Guam James Moylan has spent his time making friends and “educating and informing” other states about Guam’s existence in hopes to get increased funding and support for legislative bills.
Moylan said he would prefer a Trump presidency but noted he has “proved he can also work with Democrats”.
Under Trump, Moylan said Guam would have “stronger security”, raising his concerns over the need to stop Chinese fishing boats from coming onto the island.
Moylan also defended the military expansion: “We are not the aggressor. If we put our guard down, we need to be able to show we can maintain our land.”
Moylan defended the US military expansion, which his predecessor, former US Congressman Robert Underwood, was concerned about, saying the rate of expansion had not been seen since World War II.
“We are the closest there is to the Indo-Pacific threat,” Moylan said.
“We need to make sure our pathways, waterways and economy is growing, and we have a strong defence against our aggressors.”
“All likeminded democracies are concerned about the current leadership of China. We are working together…to work on security issues and prosperity issues,” US Ambassador to New Zealand Tom Udall said.
When asked about the military capabilities of the US and Guam, Moylan said: “We are not going to war; we are prepared to protect the homeland.”
Moylan said that discussions for compensation involving nuclear radiation survivors in Guam would happen regardless of who was elected.
The 23-year battle has been spearheaded by atomic veteran Robert Celestial, who is advocating for recognition for Chamorro and Guamanians under the RECA Act.
Celestial said that the Biden administration had thrown their support behind them, but progress was being stalled in Congress, which is predominantly controlled by the Republican party.
But Moylan insisted that the fight for compensation was not over. He said that discussions would continue after the election irrespective of who was in power.
“It’s been tabled. It’s happening. I had a discussion with Speaker Mike Johnson. We are working to pass this through,” he said.
US Marine Force Base Camp Blaz. Image: RNZ Pacific/Eleisha Foon
If Trump wins Dr Powles said a return to Trump’s leadership could derail ongoing efforts to build security architecture in the Pacific.
There are also views Trump would pull back from the Pacific and focus on internal matters, directly impacting his nation.
For Trump, there is no mention of the climate crisis in his platform or Agenda47.
This is in line with the former president’s past actions, such as withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2019, citing “unfair economic burdens” placed on American workers and businesses.
Trump has maintained his position that the climate crisis is “one of the great scams of all time”.
The America First agenda is clear, with “countering China” at the top of the list. Further, “strengthening alliances,” Trump’s version of multilateralism, reads as what allies can do for the US rather than the other way around.
“There are concerns for Donald Trump’s admiration for more dictatorial leaders in North Korea, Russia, China and what that could mean in a time of crisis,” Dr Powles said.
A Trump administration could mean uncertainty for the Pacific, she added.
While Trump was president in 2017, he warned North Korea “not to mess” with the United States.
“North Korea [is] best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met by fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
North Korea responded deriding his warning as a “load of nonsense”.
Although there is growing concern among academics and some Pacific leaders that Trump would bring “fire and fury” to the Indo-Pacific if re-elected, the former president seemed to turn cold at the thought of conflict.
In 2023, Trump remarked that “Guam isn’t America” in response to warning that the US territory could be vulnerable to a North Korean nuclear strike — a move which seemed to distance the US from conflict.
If Harris wins Dr Powles said that if Harris wins, it was important to move past “announcements” and follow-through on all pledges.
A potential win for Harris could be the fulfilment of the many “promises” made to the Pacific for climate financing, uplifting economies of the Pacific and bolstering defence security, she said.
Pacific leaders want Harris to deliver on the Pacific Partnership Strategy, the outcomes of the two Pacific Islands-US summits in 2022 and 2023, and the many diplomatic visits undertaken during President Biden’s presidency.
The Biden administration recognised Cook Islands and Niue as sovereign and independent states and established diplomatic relationships with them.
Harris has pledged to boost funding to the Green Climate Fund by US$3 billion. She also promised to “tackle the climate crisis with bold action, build a clean energy economy, advance environmental justice, and increase resilience to climate disasters”.
Dr Powles said that delivery needed to be the focus.
“What we need to be focused on is delivery [and that] Pacific Island partners are engaged from the very beginning — from the outset to any programme right through to the final phase of it.”
This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.
Eight member countries of the OPEC+ oil-producing group anounced on Sunday to further extend their voluntary output cuts by a month, pushing the reductions through the end of December in response to ongoing weak oil prices.
OPEC+ comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies. The eight countries participating in these cuts are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.
In a statement, OPEC confirmed that these countries have “agreed to extend the November 2023 voluntary production adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day for one month until the end of December 2024.”
The countries also reiterated their commitment to “achieve full conformity” with their production targets and to compensate for any overproduction by September 2025.
This decision follows an earlier move in September when the eight countries extended their voluntary production cuts, originally due to expire at the end of September, by an additional two months.
Oil prices have generally trended downward in recent weeks amid concerns over slowing global demand.
Chinese Consul General in Vladivostok Piao Yangfan delivers a speech during the event entitled Path of Friendship at the Gorky Public Library in Vladivostok, Russia, Nov. 2, 2024. The event promoting traditional Chinese culture was held here on Saturday, drawing over 100 participants, including Chinese culture enthusiasts, students, and local residents. (Photo by Guo Feizhou/Xinhua)
An event promoting traditional Chinese culture was held in Vladivostok, Russia on Saturday, drawing over 100 participants, including Chinese culture enthusiasts, students, and local residents.
Chinese Consul General in Vladivostok, Piao Yangfan, said that the event, entitled Path of Friendship, is part of a series of cultural exchange programs to celebrate the 75th anniversary of China-Russia diplomatic relations and the China-Russia Cultural Year.
Such events will help further unleash the potential for bilateral cultural cooperation, and inject new impetus into the growing bond between the people of the two countries, he added.
Vladivostok Deputy Mayor Daria Stegniy praised the event for reinforcing the longstanding friendship between the two countries.
Activities included presentations on Chinese ethnic groups, traditional music, Baduanjin aerobic exercises, a tea ceremony, and hands-on experiences in calligraphy, painting, and paper-cutting.
The event was co-hosted by the Chinese Consulate General in Vladivostok, the Representative Office of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Vladivostok, the Gorky Public Library of Primorsky Krai, and the Confucius Institute at Far Eastern Federal University.
Guests write Chinese calligraphy during an event entitled Path of Friendship at the Gorky Public Library in Vladivostok, Russia, Nov. 2, 2024. The event promoting traditional Chinese culture was held here on Saturday, drawing over 100 participants, including Chinese culture enthusiasts, students, and local residents. (Photo by Guo Feizhou/Xinhua)
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The United States presidential election will be held Tuesday, with results coming in from Wednesday morning AEDT. I have a guide to Wednesday below that includes when polls in the key states close and other information.
In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.5–47.8, a gain for Trump since last Thursday, when Harris led by 48.6–47.5. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.
The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).
Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.
Trump leads by 0.4 points in both Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) and Nevada (six). He leads by over one point in North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16), and by 2.6 points in Arizona (11). Harris leads by about one point in Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (ten).
If the current polls are exactly right, Trump wins the Electoral College by 287–251. But either Harris or Trump could outperform their polls and win easily.
In Silver’s model, Trump has a 53% chance to win the Electoral College, slightly down from 54% on Thursday. There’s a 28% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 53% win probability.
Silver is aggregating state polls to produce a popular vote forecast, and this gives Harris a 50.4–48.4 popular vote margin, better for Harris than her 0.7-point lead in national polls.
Silver said the US pollsters are “herding”, particularly in the key states. This means individual polls are not showing enough variation in their results. If the polls are wrong in these states, herding would be a cause.
The highly rated Selzer poll had a shock result, giving Harris a three-point lead in Iowa (six electoral votes), a state Trump won by eight points in 2020. However, an Emerson Iowa poll gave Trump a nine-point lead. At least Selzer isn’t herding!
If Harris loses, a big cause will be the unpopularity of Joe Biden. If Trump loses, I believe his biggest mistake will be agreeing to the June 27 debate with Biden. Biden’s woeful performance persuaded senior Democrats to pressure him into withdrawing.
Early voting and economic data
As at Friday, over 70 million Americans had voted early (44% of total 2020 turnout). Many states give data on their early vote, such as the gender composition or the party registration of voters in states that have registration by party. But Silver said on Thursday
that analysts shouldn’t use early vote data as an alternative to the polls.
Many people will vote on election day, so the composition of the current early vote may be a skewed representation of the final electorate. Also, we don’t know who early voters voted for. Even in states with party registration, people can register as Other, and Other voters make up a large share of the vote.
In economic data, US GDP increased 2.7% at an annualised rate in the September quarter (0.7% in quarter on quarter terms). GDP has increased modestly in every quarter since September 2022. In September, the personal savings rate dropped 0.2% since August to 4.6%.
Just 12,000 jobs were added in October. While the unemployment rate remained unchanged from September at 4.1%, the employment population ratio (the share of eligible Americans employed) dropped 0.2% to 60.0%. The survey fieldwork may have been affected by Hurricane Milton.
The Silver economic index is at +0.19, indicating an economy just above average. The economy is a key reason why Trump could win.
Election day guide for Wednesday AEDT
All times in this section are Wednesday AEDT. US media will often call uncompetitive states for a candidate once all polls in that state are closed, without any votes being counted. Some states are split across time zones, and in this case the part in the western time zone will close an hour after the eastern zone part.
Early and postal votes are expected to lean to Harris, while election day votes are expected to lean to Trump. So if the early vote is counted first, the state is likely to appear better for Harris than the final result, and the reverse if the election day vote is counted first.
The Green Papers has a complete list of poll closing times and FiveThirtyEight has details on how each state counts its votes. I will concentrate on the seven key states.
At 10am, the first polls close in the eastern time zones of Kentucky and Indiana. These states are both expected to be Trump blowout wins.
At 11am, polls close in Georgia. Early votes will be reported by 12pm, followed by the election day vote. Initial results will probably skew to Harris.
At 11:30am, polls close in North Carolina. The early vote will be counted first, so the initial results are likely to be relatively good for Harris.
At 12pm, polls close in Pennsylvania and the large majority of Michigan. Pennsylvania will count their election day votes first, which should be relatively good for Trump. Michigan will count its postal votes with election day votes.
At 1pm, polls close in Wisconsin, Arizona and the remaining small part of Michigan. In Wisconsin, election day votes will be counted first, with postals not released until late. An hour after polls close, Arizona will release its early vote, which should be relatively good for Harris. Counting of election day votes will continue until the evening AEDT, with more counting in the following days.
At 2pm, polls close in Nevada. The early vote will be counted first. Results can’t be reported until all voters in line have voted, which will probably be hours after the official close of polls. There will also be late postals to count.
At 3pm, polls close in the Pacific states of California (54 electoral votes), Washington (12) and Oregon (eight), all expected to be easy wins for Harris. If Harris is doing unexpectedly well in the key states, these three may put her over the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
At 5pm, the final polls close in Alaska’s western time zone.
We may know who has won the Electoral College and therefore the presidency by Wednesday afternoon, but counting will continue until well into that evening AEDT. If it’s close, it may take a few more days to resolve the Electoral College.
Some states, including the populous Democratic strongholds of California and New York, take weeks to count all their votes. So it won’t be until early December that we know the national popular vote totals.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
MIL OSI Translation. Timor-Leste Portuguese to English –
Presidency of the Council of Ministers
Spokesperson for the Government of Timor-Leste
……………………………………………. ……………………………………………. …………………….
Press release
November 4, 2024
Timor-Leste Expresses Solidarity with the Kingdom of Spain over Floods in the Valencia Region
The IX Constitutional Government expresses its deep solidarity with the People and Government of Spain for the tragic floods that devastated the Valencia region between the end of October and the beginning of November 2024. This natural disaster, triggered by an Isolated High Altitude Depression (DANA), caused torrential rains that resulted in the death of more than 200 people, most of them in the province of Valencia, and the destruction of infrastructure, homes and agricultural areas.
Images captured by the European Copernicus programme reveal the magnitude of the damage, with extensive areas flooded and infrastructure severely affected. Local authorities continue to face major challenges in assisting the population and restoring the affected areas.
On behalf of the Government and People of Timor-Leste, the Spokesperson of the IX Constitutional Government, Minister Agio Pereira, expressed “deep regret for the tragic loss of human life and the enormous difficulties faced by the Spanish people at this time of pain and trial”. He added that “our thoughts are with the victims and their families, and we acknowledge the heroic efforts of the rescue teams and professionals who continue to support the communities affected by this catastrophe”. END
EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and/or sentence structure not be perfect.
NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO, OR TO ANY PERSON LOCATED OR RESIDENT IN, THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA OR TO ANY U.S. PERSON (AS DEFINED IN REGULATION S OF THE UNITED STATES SECURITIES ACT OF 1933) OR IN OR INTO ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE IT IS UNLAWFUL TO RELEASE, PUBLISH OR DISTRIBUTE THIS ANNOUNCEMENT.
On October 31, 2024, the New Development Bank (NDB) successfully priced a 3-Year USD 1.25 billion Green Bond, paying an annual coupon of 4.677 per cent (equivalent to SOFR MS + 80 bps), under its Euro Medium Term Note Programme, which will be issued on 7 November 2024, subject to final legal documentation and customary closing conditions.
An amount equal to the net proceeds from the Bond issuance will be allocated to finance and/or refinance, in whole or in part, past or future disbursement of loans made to eligible green projects in accordance with NDB’s Sustainable Financing Policy Framework dated 25 May 2020 in such sectors as clean transportation, climate change adaptation, energy efficiency, low-carbon and renewable energy, sustainable water management, etc. NDB’s Sustainable Financing Policy Framework governs issuances of green, social and sustainability debt instruments, including the use and management of bond proceeds, project selection and evaluation process, reporting and disclosure.
The USD 1.25 billion Green Bond received strong demand from investors, with the final order book exceeding USD 2.2 billion. Geographically, the issuance attracted a diverse investor base, with 66% of investors from Asia and 34% from the EMEA region. The composition of the final order book was as follows: Central Banks, Official Institutions, and Sovereign Wealth Funds – 52%; Banks – 43%; Asset Managers, Fund Managers, and others – 5%.
Bank of China, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, ICBC, and Standard Chartered Bank (B&D) acted as Joint Lead Managers of the transaction. CITIC Securities served as a Co-Manager of the transaction.
“The strong demand and good pricing conditions obtained underscore the confidence of investors in NDB’s financial stability and its mandate of mobilizing resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other emerging economies and developing countries,” said Mr. Monale Ratsoma, NDB Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer.
“New Development Bank is committed to being a regular issuer in both hard currency and local currencies of its member countries. Our issuances are guided by market conditions, investor demand and the requirements of the Bank’s lending portfolio. NDB aims to build a liquid benchmark curve over time with issuances across different maturities, enhancing its capacity to finance infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other emerging economies and developing countries”.
Background Information
New Development Bank was established with the purpose of mobilizing resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other emerging market economies and developing countries, complementing the efforts of multilateral and regional financial institutions for global growth and development. In 2021, NDB initiated membership expansion and admitted Bangladesh, Egypt, United Arab Emirates and Uruguay as its new member countries.
In December 2019, NDB established its inaugural USD 50 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme (EMTN Programme) in the international capital markets.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This announcement does not constitute or form part of an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to sell or subscribe for or otherwise acquire any securities (including, without limitation, the green bonds mentioned above (the “Bonds“)).
This announcement is not a prospectus for the purposes of Regulation (EU) 2017/1129 or that Regulation as it forms part of United Kingdom law.
The Bonds are not being, and will not be, offered or sold in the United States. Nothing in this announcement constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the Bonds in the United States or any other jurisdiction. Securities may not be offered, sold or delivered in the United States absent registration under, or an exemption from the registration requirements of, the Securities Act. The Bonds have not been, and will not be, registered under the Securities Act or the securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States and may not be offered, sold or delivered, directly or indirectly, within the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. persons (as defined in Regulation S under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended).
No action has been or will be taken in any jurisdiction in relation to the Bonds to permit a public offering of securities.
This announcement is directed only at (i) persons who are outside the United Kingdom (the “UK“), or (ii) persons who are in the UK who are (a) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order“) or (b) otherwise, persons to whom this announcement may lawfully be communicated pursuant to the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons“). This announcement is directed only at relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this announcement relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. This electronic transmission may only be communicated to persons in the UK in circumstances where section 21(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 does not apply to the Issuer.
Credit ratings should not be taken as recommendations by a rating agency to buy, sell or hold the Bonds. They may be revised, suspended or withdrawn at any time by the relevant rating agency.
Prohibition on sales to EEA and UK retail investors: Target Market (MiFID II / UK MiFIR) is Eligible Counterparties and Professional clients only (all distribution channels). No EU PRIIPs or UK PRIIPs key information document (KID) has been prepared as the Notes are not available to retail in EEA or the UK.
Relevant stabilisation regulations including FCA/ICMA will apply.
On election eve in the United States, the presidential race is deadlocked. The polls are exceptionally close across the country and in all the swing states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin in the industrial midwest; Nevada and Arizona in the west; and Georgia and North Carolina in the south.
The final New York Times/Siena poll shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading by a very small margin or tied with Republican former President Donald Trump in all the swing states. The exception is Arizona, where Trump leads by a few percentage points.
While there is no clear favourite to win, there are several critical factors that will driving voters’ decisions on Election Day. This is what to watch.
Trump’s favourability is stuck around 43% in nationwide polling. In the past two presidential elections, he fell short of taking 50% of the national popular vote. As president, he never achieved over 50% favourability. And he has never topped 50% since leaving office.
This means he has hit a ceiling in his support and is highly unlikely to win the national popular vote on Tuesday.
This also reflects what happened to Trump in the Republican primaries to win the nomination. He dominated the field, defeating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and several others. But in most of those primaries, 15-20% of Republican voters did not vote for Trump.
Where will these Republican voters ultimately land on Tuesday? Probably half want to vote Republican and will go with Trump. Others will not being able to bring themselves to vote for Harris and will simply not vote for president.
Others will switch their support to Harris. Indeed, there has never been such a swelling of support from members of one party to support the other party’s presidential candidate.
Harris needs those “Republicans for Harris” votes. In addition, she’ll need to replicate the coalition of young voters, voters of colour and women who backed current President Joe Biden against Trump in 2020 in those same swing states and nationally.
Her favourability ratings are higher than Trump, at around 46%. The closer a presidential candidate is to 50% approval ratings, the better their chance of winning the election.
It’s the economy, stupid
At the same time, the country is in a bad mood. There is a classic polling question asked at elections: is the country on the right track, or moving in the wrong direction? Between 60–70% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track.
That is a signal this election is about change. Historically, that sentiment has not favoured the incumbent in the White House. As Biden’s vice president, Harris is directly facing this headwind.
There are four key issues in this election. The most important is the hip pocket issue: household budgets, cost of living pressures and voters’ concerns about their future economic security.
Since Biden and Harris took office nearly four years ago, the cost of groceries, household items, utilities and services such as insurance have risen between 10–40%. Petrol prices have gone up even more.
Though interest rates have fallen, American households are hurting. When asked who is best to manage the economy, voters in swing states say Trump by a 15-point margin.
The next-biggest issue is immigration. Since Trump first became a presidential candidate in 2015, he has relentlessly pushed the immigration button, declaring the border with Mexico is out of control, with crime and pillage rising in its wake.
The first three years of Biden’s term were also marked by big surges of immigrants crossing the border, though rates have fallen dramatically in 2024.
Voters view Trump as best placed to manage this issue, too, by nearly 15 points.
Abortion rights and reproductive health services are the third major issue. Many women across America are repelled by the Supreme Court’s decision to take away their long-held constitutional right to an abortion. Now, this policy is decided at the state level. And several conservative Republican states – including Ohio and Kansas – have voted to restore abortion rights.
Harris is seen as the champion of these issues. Multiple pollsshow voters trust her more than Trump on reproductive rights, by wide margins.
Abortion rights are also on the ballot in two swing states, Nevada and Arizona, which should help Harris in both.
The future of American democracy is the fourth major issue facing voters. According to a new poll, half the country sees Trump as a profound threat to America’s democracy who will wield authoritarian power to enforce his policies and programs.
Harris has pledged to turn the page, heal divisions and get Republicans and Democrats working together again.
In these closing days, Trump continues to make provocative statements with violent imagery. At a rally in Arizona last week, for instance, he again attacked Liz Cheney, the former Republican congresswoman who advocated for the prosecution of Trump over the January 6 insurrection:
She’s a radical war hawk. Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let’s see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face.
This may have provided Harris with a final cut-through moment on Trump’s fitness for office in the final days of the campaign. She said in response:
Anyone who wants to be president of the United States who uses that kind of violent rhetoric is clearly disqualified and unqualified to be president. […] Trump is increasingly, however, someone who considers his political opponents the enemy, is permanently out for revenge and is increasingly unstable and unhinged.
So, who is going to win?
Trump’s team sees victory in all the polls. His chief pollster wrote late last week:
President Trump’s position nationally and in every single battleground state is significantly better than it was four years ago.
The polls may also be undercounting the full measure of Trump’s support, as was the case in 2016 and 2020. And the polls may not be reflecting the extent of antipathy towards Harris as a Black and south Asian woman.
Jen O’Malley Dillon, Harris’ campaign director, and who headed the 2020 Biden campaign that defeated Trump, has told her troops, meanwhile, that undecided voters are “gettable”, adding:
We have multiple pathways to victory […] Our folks are voting at levels we need them to vote in order for us to win.
Harris has built a US$1 billion (A$1.5 billion) machine designed to reach voters in the swing states – through personal contact. This machine made three million phone calls and door knocks on homes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin alone on Saturday. If this machine delivers, it could be the boost Harris needs on election night.
Harris’ campaign also signalled over the weekend that late-deciding voters, and especially women, are breaking their way by double digits. There is a sense among Democrats that Harris is now peaking as the campaign concludes.
The final analysis
If Harris wins, it will be because she has successfully sealed the deal with those voters and made the election a referendum on Trump – that on balance the country has had enough of him after eight years. It also means her ground game delivered the votes.
If Trump wins, it will mean voters trusted him to manage inflation and the cost-of-living squeeze on households, as well as what they see as out-of-control immigration and crime. These messages would also have been further embellished by unease about Harris, a Black and south Asian woman, as president.
Bruce Wolpe receives funding from the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He also worked on the Democratic staff of the US House of Representatives, most recently during President Barack Obama’s first term.